Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[superjames1992]

Just so everyone is clear: I am referring to my back yard. Some folks are going to do very well today. Of that I have no doubt. But for the NW Piedmont, it's probably going to finish on the low side. I'll be more than happy to have a pie of crow if I am wrong.

I think your best bet is that the overrunning proves to be a bit heavier/further northwest than progged. We've certainly seen models miss that plenty of times even at the last second, but I wouldn't get my hopes up necessarily. Probably a 1-3" type event in the Triad, IMO (and more likely to the lower end of that, especially as you move NW).

I'm going with 2-4" for Durham, 3-6" for Raleigh. We'll see.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Also you have to do is look at the Radar. Precip ain’t an issue

 

[Nerman]

looks like the wedge trying to get into GA. Athens dew point down to 32

 

[Metwannabe]

Anyone have a snap or link to the current CC in NC/SC?

This is a good one

COD-NEXLAB : Dual-Pol Radar for RAX

Dual-Pol NEXRAD Data for provided by College of DuPage Meteorology (NEXLAB)

weather.cod.edu

 

[D-Ray]

sleet has started here with a temp of 43

 

[FallsLake]

Dew point down to 29 at RDU and down to 24 in Henderson (which is NE/up stream of RDU).

 

[Nerman]

Chattanooga has a chance to change over before those heavy returns get there...

 

[NCSNOW]

And the 3k NAM....

View attachment 35875

Nam has been pretty consistent with my area, had 1 spike run of 7 inches in areas yesterday, but mostly its been adverting 2-5 through Randolph county. We are on the west edge. So your talking a tenth to two tenths qpf. Very impressed how it perfirmed from 84hrs to go time today. Hands down beat the globals to the punch imo.

 

[Snownut]

Looks like the frozen line in upstate is Just North of Hwy 11. Between there and the Nc/SC border.

 

[NoSnowATL]

looks like the wedge trying to get into GA. Athens dew point down to 32

View attachment 35877

She is trying, 37/35 and the DP has dropped 2 since since 6am. This is what we need around here.


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[Brick Tamland]

Closest weather station to my house has 41/31 now.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Chattanooga has a chance to change over before those heavy returns get there...

Um that’s melting a loft more so than heavy returns. Temps in the mid 30s with light to steady precip.

 

[southernskimmer]

I have a company truck driver reporting snow in Lebanon, TN.

 

[tucker]

Down to 39 in Chattanooga with a steady rain....

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Um that’s melting a loft more so than heavy returns. Temps in the mid 30s with light to steady precip.

Those returns were what we saw with the last system ... heavy precip easily

 

[Webberweather53]

Rain-snow line starting off just south of the NC-SC border.

 

[Webberweather53]

Those returns were what we saw with the last system ... heavy precip easily

The higher returns are due largely to melting but you don’t get the excess melting without heavier precip to begin with.

 

[ForsythSnow]

From what I can try to tell, there seems to be snow in Chattanooga now. Can anyone there confirm? Also the CC line is nearing Dalton now.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Perhaps part of the problem for the NW Piedmont is the angle of approach. The precipitation is coming primarily from the west—over the mts and into relatively dry air. If the overall system were not so flat and the returns were approaching from the SW, then things would be different.

Good luck to everyone from RDU east. I hope you get a good one.

 

[iGRXY]

The changeover in the Upstate is at the Gaffney, Boiling Springs, TR area which is way ahead of schedule for the NAM. 850's are solidly below freezing in the northern upstate and 925's are right at freezing so this is a very good sign in my opinion.