Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Deleted member 1449]

I allowed myself to get suckered by the NAM. That will never happen again. It is what it is. I will enjoy whatever comes my way today, but I'm not expecting much.

 

[Blane20181990]

Already seeing sleet in Pikeville NC as of 8:30 AM

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Woof

View attachment 35867

I like this look for the triangle area .. even with the stuff starting as rain we can pull out 3 inches and most likely the HRRR is overdoing the rain so this seems good to me

 

[Fountainguy97]

First flakes here! Hoping for 3-4inches here in Unicoi.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Several runs of the NAM yesterday were spitting out .6-.7" qpf for the Triad. This morning's NAM just gave my BY a paltry .17"!

 

[Metwannabe]

Some SC folks might start to hug the NAM....

 

[SnowNiner]

Several runs of the NAM yesterday were spitting out .6-.7" qpf for the Triad. This morning's NAM just gave my BY a paltry .17"!

Agreed. That's pretty horrible. I've gotten NAM'D! This is essentially a non-event for clt. Wow. Kuchera below.

 

[Rain Cold]

I allowed myself to get suckered by the NAM. That will never happen again. It is what it is. I will enjoy whatever comes my way today, but I'm not expecting much.

It's easy to do. There are lots of opinions that get posted about how the NAM is better since the upgrade or why it's realistic with whatever, but just going from years of experience watching that model, it almost always seems to overdo precipitation amounts at lead and then back off as you move in, when snow is involved. I don't usually watch it that closely outside of winter events, but I assume it probably does the same. I use the NAM as a pretty good indicator of thermals, but I don't put a lot of stock in it's QPF outside of 12-24 hours...and even that can sometimes result in error. They don't call it getting Nam'd for nothing.

 

[ForsythSnow]

So the NAM did get the 925 layer close between 6Z and 12Z, but the 850s are cooler at 12Z than 6Z.

 

[BackThePack]

Woof

View attachment 35867

If you look at previous HRRR runs, this is a YUGE step up in totals.... its catching up.

 

[ForsythSnow]

The CC line continues dropping in TN. From the looks of it, it's entering GA.

 

[Metwannabe]

And the 3k NAM....

 

[iGRXY]

Guys calm down, it's a now casting time and 1 run of the NAM is not the end of the world. the column is clearly cold if we are already getting a mix of rain and sleet reports with the first wave.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12z Nam is much flatter and faster. Less precip in NC so far. Probably going to be similar to other models with the snowfall output now.

Still looks great (especially 3km) for places like Raleigh eastward .. with nice heavy bands and a clear back building trend at the end

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Just so everyone is clear: I am referring to my back yard. Some folks are going to do very well today. Of that I have no doubt. But for the NW Piedmont, it's probably going to finish on the low side. I'll be more than happy to have a pie of crow if I am wrong.

 

[ryan1234]

Anyone have a snap or link to the current CC in NC/SC?

 

[wxdaniel]

I don’t see a OBS anywhere but Travelers Rest SC 6 miles north of Greenville is reporting sleet.


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[Avalanche]

The Black Mountain, Maggie Valley area are getting great returns right now.

 

[SD]

I don’t see a OBS anywhere but Travelers Rest SC 6 miles north of Greenville is reporting sleet.


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No obs threads obs go in the storm thread

 

[Mitch West]

uh oh