Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Downeastnc]

Initial BL is major issue, it's showing rain with this sounding and this one is imby which rates aren't that heavy during this time, which isn't helping cool the lower levels either. Hate to see qpf wasted on white rain

Hopefully wont be losing much QPF to rain, once rates get good it will be IP/SN mix at worst, heck they already report IP etc under the heavier returns to the SW and we have a better profile here than there already....the real issue is cooling the surface and that's where the banding precip comes in, in my experience any kind of decent rates will push the surface temp to freezing, by mid afternoon at the latest we should see accumulating snow, if we can get 75% of the QPF to fall frozen and stick we are golden.

 

[Chazwin]

My station is broken. Do you know the current DP? Monroe says 36, but Wunderground says 30.

I’m showing 33 here in Wingate and thats down 3 in the last couple hours

 

[SD]

I'll go ahead and remind y'all that most likely, off topic post will just get deleted today. Comments will be coming fast and furious, just no way we can keep up, so help us out. Thanks

Yep. If you even think your post is off topic put it in the whamby thread.

 

[DopplerWx]

12z hrrr showing the rain/snow line just south of uptown clt into the upstate by 1pm. if it verifies then upstate to clt could see some decent totals. if you look at the coor coefficient line in radarscope you can see it moving south this morning. currently just north of charlotte.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice map that takes out the Virga

 

[Metwannabe]

I got to think, as others have mentioned, the HRRR is playing catch up and that precip north of the bright banding will be all snow. I just don't see it having those initial snow islands like the image is depicting.

 

[iGRXY]

12z hrrr showing the rain/snow line just south of uptown clt into the upstate by 1pm. if it verifies then upstate to clt could see some decent totals. if you look at the coor coefficient line in radarscope you can see it moving south this morning. currently just north of charlotte.

What website or source do you use for the coor coefficient? I have the radarscope app but can not find it. starting to think it's under their Pro or Pro 2 setting that you have to pay more for. That is a very useful tool to watch the rain snow line today.

 

[SD]

Woof

 

[Ethan80963]

I know its nowcast time but these two still aren't backing down and they have been pretty consistent the last few runs.

 

[DopplerWx]

What website or source do you use for the coor coefficient? I have the radarscope app but can not find it. starting to think it's under their Pro or Pro 2 setting that you have to pay more for. That is a very useful tool to watch the rain snow line today.

it is under dual pol

 

[Metwannabe]

I read last night that it is no longer ran parallel and a new HRRR4 is supposed to be implemented later this year. Because of this not only does the current HRRR miss in transition zones (PBL mixing issues) but it also misses on northward extent of modeled reflectivity. Because of this I’m not considering how dry it is for areas west of I-95


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I moved this post from @Jon from the call map thread to over here because it helps explain some of the possible issues with the HRRR, might also help ease some NW Piedmont folk's mind (@Poimen )

Call it wishcasting, call me a weenie, but I think the HRRR will continue to play catch up today and watch that accum map @SD shared above expand back west

 

[MSherm]

12z hrrr showing the rain/snow line just south of uptown clt into the upstate by 1pm. if it verifies then upstate to clt could see some decent totals. if you look at the coor coefficient line in radarscope you can see it moving south this morning. currently just north of charlotte.

A few pellets of sleet here in Lake Wylie.

 

[Metwannabe]

I know its nowcast time but these two still aren't backing down and they have been pretty consistent the last few runs.
View attachment 35868
View attachment 35869

Consistent, I don't think they have budged. Which tells me the 12z NAM probably going to still look solid

 

[Downeastnc]

Woof

View attachment 35867

And that is underdone since it takes it longer to flip than it actually will....

 

[Deleted member 1449]

I moved this post from @Jon from the call map thread to over here because it helps explain some of the possible issues with the HRRR, might also help ease some NW Piedmont folk's mind (@Poimen )

Call it wishcasting, call me a weenie, but I think the HRRR will continue to play catch up today and watch that accum map @SD shared above expand back west

Thanks. I'm going to reserve further judgment until I see the NAMs. But, given that the RAP is in lock-step with the HRRR (re. qpf) for our area, I'm a bit concerned for our area. But again, they could both be ending the event too quickly here, so there's that.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I wonder if Chattanooga is about to see a switch over or if this is just a mirage. Mping seems to indicate numerous snow reports north of this line though.

 

[cyclogent]

Links to 90-minute animated p-type radar (maps refresh in real-time)

 

[packfan98]

12z Nam is much flatter and faster. Less precip in NC so far. Probably going to be similar to other models with the snowfall output now.

 

[SD]

And that is underdone since it takes it longer to flip than it actually will....

Yeah thats why I posted it, if the warmest model is giving me 3-3.5 I have to feel a little confidence at this point. I might only end up with 1-2 on the ground but thats ok

 

[Metwannabe]

Thanks. I'm going to reserve further judgment until I see the NAMs. But, given that the RAP is in lock-step with the HRRR (re. qpf) for our area, I'm a bit concerned for our area. But again, they could both be ending the event too quickly here, so there's that.

NAM might be tick less amped, gonna be a quick hitter, especially out your way unfortunately.... but you should be all snow