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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

People keep freaking out it seems and saying we’re going to need to cut totals in half and don’t believe the over amped or warm ground temps and above freezing so it’ll melt ALOT ..... rates don’t care about any of that ... if u look at the radar image posted above you can see we got a long way to go with great rates looking likely .. once it starts spitting it’s going to pile up and have everyone “shocked” except me
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah saw that.....bullish for them....general 6-10" for Pitt Co and PGV sounds about right though historically we do really well in these setups.
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Looking at the 12z HRRR as it rolls in, initialized well as the surface here, ~5pm changeover and one could argue it closer to 3pm based on trending from previous runs. The surface is what is really holding it back at this point, I'll be interested to see how long it takes to go isothermal, SN does have a hard time sticking when its 34-35F.
 
FallsLake said:
For RDU folks, the 2m temp is 41 but the dew point has dropped to 33. Up stream (NE) Henderson has dropped to 26. We need those lower dew points.
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Yep was just looking at that and the fact that Henderson has dropped shows the DP's starting to come down further S/SE.. I don't think there is any getting around losing some qpf to rain but hopefully will still be a quick transition.
 
WeatherNC said:
Looking at the 12z HRRR as it rolls in, initialized well as the surface here, ~5pm changeover and one could argue it closer to 3pm based on trending from previous runs. The surface is what is really holding it back at this point, I'll be interested to see how long it takes to go isothermal, SN does have a hard time sticking when its 34-35F.
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Initial BL is major issue, it's showing rain with this sounding and this one is imby which rates aren't that heavy during this time, which isn't helping cool the lower levels either. Hate to see qpf wasted on white rain

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Wx4life said:
Rain started here in Western Union County around 7 this morning. Temps have dropped 3 degrees down to 41 since it began. Have seen sleet mixing in at times.
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and even as rain has started falling, dewpoints continue to drop... definitely off that NE wind
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
People keep freaking out it seems and saying we’re going to need to cut totals in half and don’t believe the over amped or warm ground temps and above freezing so it’ll melt ALOT ..... rates don’t care about any of that ... if u look at the radar image posted above you can see we got a long way to go with great rates looking likely .. once it starts spitting it’s going to pile up and have everyone “shocked” except me
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Rates can overcome all of that. Unfortunately, higher rates seem less likely for the western Piedmont given the storm is not as amped as hoped and perhaps even tracking further east than hoped. The flip side is this should bode well for down east counties late afternoon and tonight.
 
Regarding those saying ground temps won’t matter - that’s wishcasting. Sure it can still stick. For instance if it is snowing at 2” per hour and melting at 1” per hour, that makes you think your have overcome ground temps. But you got 1” on the ground rather than 2. So I think everyone probably understands that snow can and will accumulate with warm ground temps and air temps. But to think it can be the same as falling on frozen ground in sub freezing temps is folly.
TW
 
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