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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Tarheelwx said:
Everyone should be looking at the wet bulb rather than dew point. WB will tell where the temp should be once you saturate the atmosphere. Last I looked, GS was at 33 for the WB. I think if heavier precip moves in, the triad should quickly get to 32 or just below.
TW
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Where do I find the wet bulb at
 
iGrey_X said:
Precip moving in quicker on radar than what the NAM was showing my the looks of it.
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I'm not surprised. It always does. This is why a lot of N GA did well with the event two weeks ago. We were hoping the precip came in as early as possible before the cold air retreated and it did.

It's the opposite for the Carolinas...you guys want it to start later to get the colder air to move in. It's already raining here.
 
Clem282340 said:
Where do I find the wet bulb at
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Rule of thumb - take the difference between actual air temp and dew point, and then divide by 3. This will tell you pretty close how much the temp will fall once you reach 100% rh. For example, if the air temp is 40 and DP is 28 (difference of 12), then you could expect the temp to drop 4 degrees once fully saturated.
TW
 
The biggest headlines from overnight? Here are some of the things I see.

-Nam came In with a slightly less amped solution. This cuts qpf and the really high snow totals. However, it also means that the mix line may be further south.
-Pretty significant improvements with precip and cold air for the Charlotte and parts of the upstate of SC.

Cross your fingers. It should be a fun day. Hopefully lots of regions get a good snow of more than two inches and several hours to watch it fall.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
I'm not surprised. It always does. This is why a lot of N GA did well with the event two weeks ago. We were hoping the precip came in as early as possible before the cold air retreated and it did.

It's the opposite for the Carolinas...you guys want it to start later to get the colder air to move in. It's already raining here.
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It actually helps us for an earlier start so temperatures don’t rise.
 
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Goodmorning all! Interesting battle between the hrrr and NAM today. It really isn’t possible to say what will happen. Just a wait and see, BUT the hrrr has had a history with temp problems.

For me (Unicoi county TN) the hrrr climbs my temp to 41 during the precip. That seems weird.

Also the HRRR has its bright band still which usually indicates the rain/snow line.
If this persists it’s probably our biggest reason to go with a colder solution.6E9E4CBC-4DEC-43FB-BE70-81709ED26E70.png
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Goodmorning all! Interesting battle between the hrrr and NAM today. It really isn’t possible to say what will happen. Just a wait and see, BUT the hrrr has had a history with temp problems.

For me (Unicoi county TN) the hrrr climbs my temp to 41 during the precip. That seems weird.

Also the HRRR has its bright band still which usually indicates the rain/snow line.
If this persists it’s probably our biggest reason to go with a colder solution.View attachment 35840
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It's interesting because the column with that bright band looks okay for snow until you get to the surface then it looks atrocious.

1582195716550.png
 
ajr said:
It's interesting because the column with that bright band looks good for snow. Surface temps are atrocious -- it's like the last 300 ft of the column that can't be cooled.

View attachment 35842
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I think one Factor is arrival of precip. It’s possible the sun warms us up too much. Or it’s possible it doesn’t at all. That’s probably where the HRRR gets its hotter temps across NC.

that band is 100% the melting line. I’ve seen it show up several times. Which is why it’s strange that the simulated PType isn’t lining up with it
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Confused at what your getting at people are forecasted to get warning criteria snowfall tomorrow... this isn’t a potential snow event this is a winter storm?
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I have been under a Winter Storm Warning before and ended up not seeing a single snowflake. Just because your under a warning doesn’t make it a lock. Y’all should do great today, but don’t say it’s happening before your yard is white.
 
Rain Cold said:
Really cooking at RDU 39/38. Thought dews were supposed to be dropping? NAM/RGEM/CAMS all look good, but the GFS is like an inch or two max. Hmmmm
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Just dropped to 36 with the 6am reading. I'm figuring as the winds increase this morning, they'll draw the lower dew points from the north into our area.

Bad thing I didn't drop below freezing last night, Good thing I did get at least 12 hours (still counting) of temps in the 30s. Ground temps should be a little better this morning.
 
Poimen said:
That's nuts. I'm sitting at 39/20 here.
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Those lower DP's aren't making it east just yet, I'm 35/33....still not too concerned with temps but I'm nervous haha, being the northern county in the Warning area. Going to be a crazy tight gradient I think
 
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