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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Does somebody have a good and accurate dew point map. I’m currently 44-45/33 right now and just wanting to really check. The mesoscale on NOAA is what I usually like to look at during winter storms but it lags behind.
 
Not that it matters too much at this point, but the 00z GGEM came a little NW compared to 12z with higher totals inland. A bit more juiced, which helps places like GSO.
 
GSP update


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1021 PM: No obvious mid-course corrections to make at this
time. Backed up the timing of onset of light precip again a bit
more based on the 00Z model guidance and convection-allowing
models trickling in right now, but that does not significantly
affect precip type or amounts. A few tweaks of temp/dewpt were
made based on obs.

Otherwise, we continue to monitor developments out to the west
to see how our potential winter weather event might be taking
shape. An impressive 1045+ mb Canadian high pressure will continue
to gradually build into the area, supplying colder and drier air
through tonight and into the day Thursday (especially near the
surface). However, for most of northeast Georgia and the Upstate
of SC, away from the higher terrain, it appears that the precip
will wind the race. The upcoming system was organizing over Texas
early this afternoon and seems a bit more well organized than some
guidance suggests. Across the mtns, thermal profiles should support
mainly snow above 2000 feet at the onset of precip. Snow should
also prevail as precipitation reaches the foothills into the I-40
corridor, although rain/sleet may mix in at times. Heavier showers
and continued cold air filtering in on breezy northerly winds is
expected to support a gradual change over to snow from the I-40
corridor to the I-85 corridor from around noon into the afternoon
with lingering precipitation (possibly taking a banded look)
becoming all snow along the I-77 corridor late in the afternoon into
the evening hours. All told, we are expected one to three inches
with locally four inches across the mountains with one half of an
inch to two inches, locally three for the North Carolina foothills
to Piedmont, which will be pushing warning criteria. One half to
one inch is possible in and around Charlotte into northern portion
of the Upstate of South Carolina. If the changeover happens earlier
than expected, the snow totals would get pushed higher. A winter
weather advisory was issued for most of these areas as a result,
but it would not be a big surprise if a corridor somewhere from
the upper French Broad River valley to the northwest Piedmont
has to be upgraded to a Warning at some point on Thursday as the
event unfolds. Temperatures will fall through the 40s tonight with
Thursday daytime highs likely in the morning as wet-bulbing will
support temperatures falling through the 30s for most late morning
into the afternoon.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Forevertothee said:
GSP update


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1021 PM: No obvious mid-course corrections to make at this
time. Backed up the timing of onset of light precip again a bit
more based on the 00Z model guidance and convection-allowing
models trickling in right now, but that does not significantly
affect precip type or amounts. A few tweaks of temp/dewpt were
made based on obs.

Otherwise, we continue to monitor developments out to the west
to see how our potential winter weather event might be taking
shape. An impressive 1045+ mb Canadian high pressure will continue
to gradually build into the area, supplying colder and drier air
through tonight and into the day Thursday (especially near the
surface). However, for most of northeast Georgia and the Upstate
of SC, away from the higher terrain, it appears that the precip
will wind the race. The upcoming system was organizing over Texas
early this afternoon and seems a bit more well organized than some
guidance suggests. Across the mtns, thermal profiles should support
mainly snow above 2000 feet at the onset of precip. Snow should
also prevail as precipitation reaches the foothills into the I-40
corridor, although rain/sleet may mix in at times. Heavier showers
and continued cold air filtering in on breezy northerly winds is
expected to support a gradual change over to snow from the I-40
corridor to the I-85 corridor from around noon into the afternoon
with lingering precipitation (possibly taking a banded look)
becoming all snow along the I-77 corridor late in the afternoon into
the evening hours. All told, we are expected one to three inches
with locally four inches across the mountains with one half of an
inch to two inches, locally three for the North Carolina foothills
to Piedmont, which will be pushing warning criteria. One half to
one inch is possible in and around Charlotte into northern portion
of the Upstate of South Carolina. If the changeover happens earlier
than expected, the snow totals would get pushed higher. A winter
weather advisory was issued for most of these areas as a result,
but it would not be a big surprise if a corridor somewhere from
the upper French Broad River valley to the northwest Piedmont
has to be upgraded to a Warning at some point on Thursday as the
event unfolds. Temperatures will fall through the 40s tonight with
Thursday daytime highs likely in the morning as wet-bulbing will
support temperatures falling through the 30s for most late morning
into the afternoon.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
That doesn’t look like a single change has been made since the last update at 7:00. What the heck. You would think after the euro, serf, eps, and NAM’s that they would be more hyped about it. I guess that’s GSP for ya. I guess we’ll have to see what temps get down to before precip comes in and how fast the snow can start before they get enthusiastic.
 
wetbulb temps as of 11pm eastern...

swbt.gif
 
Ethan80963 said:
That doesn’t look like a single change has been made since the last update at 7:00. What the heck. You would think after the euro, serf, eps, and NAM’s that they would be more hyped about it. I guess that’s GSP for ya. I guess we’ll have to see what temps get down to before precip comes in and how fast the snow can start before they get enthusiastic.
Click to expand...
They always like to wait till last min
 
Forevertothee said:
GSP update


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1021 PM: No obvious mid-course corrections to make at this
time. Backed up the timing of onset of light precip again a bit
more based on the 00Z model guidance and convection-allowing
models trickling in right now, but that does not significantly
affect precip type or amounts. A few tweaks of temp/dewpt were
made based on obs.

Otherwise, we continue to monitor developments out to the west
to see how our potential winter weather event might be taking
shape. An impressive 1045+ mb Canadian high pressure will continue
to gradually build into the area, supplying colder and drier air
through tonight and into the day Thursday (especially near the
surface). However, for most of northeast Georgia and the Upstate
of SC, away from the higher terrain, it appears that the precip
will wind the race. The upcoming system was organizing over Texas
early this afternoon and seems a bit more well organized than some
guidance suggests. Across the mtns, thermal profiles should support
mainly snow above 2000 feet at the onset of precip. Snow should
also prevail as precipitation reaches the foothills into the I-40
corridor, although rain/sleet may mix in at times. Heavier showers
and continued cold air filtering in on breezy northerly winds is
expected to support a gradual change over to snow from the I-40
corridor to the I-85 corridor from around noon into the afternoon
with lingering precipitation (possibly taking a banded look)
becoming all snow along the I-77 corridor late in the afternoon into
the evening hours. All told, we are expected one to three inches
with locally four inches across the mountains with one half of an
inch to two inches, locally three for the North Carolina foothills
to Piedmont, which will be pushing warning criteria. One half to
one inch is possible in and around Charlotte into northern portion
of the Upstate of South Carolina. If the changeover happens earlier
than expected, the snow totals would get pushed higher. A winter
weather advisory was issued for most of these areas as a result,
but it would not be a big surprise if a corridor somewhere from
the upper French Broad River valley to the northwest Piedmont
has to be upgraded to a Warning at some point on Thursday as the
event unfolds. Temperatures will fall through the 40s tonight with
Thursday daytime highs likely in the morning as wet-bulbing will
support temperatures falling through the 30s for most late morning
into the afternoon.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
These guys are professionals. I will give them that nod. I will also say to not cover your tail by hoisting advisories in the other 2-3 other northern upstate counties is a real head scratcher. Not that there’s a catastrophic bust potential with this event but I predict they will be playing catch-up tomorrow morning..which has already been the case twice so far this month
 
Ethan80963 said:
That doesn’t look like a single change has been made since the last update at 7:00. What the heck. You would think after the euro, serf, eps, and NAM’s that they would be more hyped about it. I guess that’s GSP for ya. I guess we’ll have to see what temps get down to before precip comes in and how fast the snow can start before they get enthusiastic.
Click to expand...
I have a lot of respect for those mets at GSP. The generally do a good job in forecast area that has so many different microclimates. However I can’t help but wonder if they are really going to have egg on the face tomorrow if heavy snow bands set up over the southern Piedmont tomorrow afternoon. Winter Storm criteria in those areas is snow accumulations 2 inches in 8 hours or 3+ inches for a whole event or Sleet accumulation of a half inch or greater... both of which have been on a fair number of modeling. If things were to come in fast, you could see a lot of cars hitting the road early at the same time.
 
NCSNOW said:
The 1040 HP is sending lower DPs, the 2m air we need down eastern apps now. Low dps into central VA. Been watching since early afternoon up in PA, eastern Lakes
Click to expand...
and when was the last time we actually had a 1040+ high pressure in place for a Winter Storm??
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised the winds from the wedging are getting all the way down here. They're howling quite a bit.
Click to expand...

000
FXUS62 KFFC 200215
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.UPDATE...
High pressure wedge has begun to build down the spine of the
Appalachians. Definitely a mesoscale boundary associated with the
wedge, as evidenced on the KATL/KFFC radars around 7PM earlier
around this evening. Winds have picked up out of the east/northeast
and should continue through tomorrow. Do expect precipitation to
begin increasing overnight as wave of low pressure develops across
the Gulf Coast and pushes eastward.

Total QPF for the tonight through Thursday event is around
1.5". Soils are wet and points are already in flood, so will go
ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch for roughly the southern half of
the CWA. The FFA may be a bit more marginal for the southern most
tier of zones, but will go ahead and include within the watch.

&&

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov forecast.weather.gov
 
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