Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[iGrey_X]

For upstate depends on which version of nam you believe. 12k nam looks good 3k nam meh


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3K NAM has snow for a good 8-12 hours depending where you are in the upstate and even the 10:1 ratios seemed low to me so that’s a little questionable

 

[Goldman75]

It’s been 779 days since the last flake fell in myrtle beach.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Uh, this could be your snow line

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man if I live near the foothills I’d be worried, sure those dewpoints are low but seeing them verifying that low signals that there likely gonna be in a minimum/snow hole over them

 

[iGrey_X]

Uh, this could be your snow lineView attachment 35783View attachment 35784

That sucker is dropping FAST if it is

 

[Deleted member 1449]

It's good to see the HRRR blossom with precipitation over the WRN Piedmont. Now about those boundary layer temps...

 

[MichaelJ]

Man if I live near the foothills I’d be worried, sure those dewpoints are low but seeing them verifying that low signals that there likely gonna be in a minimum/snow hole over them

Yep, you get much more west than W-S it could really fall off in QPF

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It's good to see the HRRR blossom with precipitation over the WRN Piedmont. Now about those boundary layer temps...

It’s mixing bias is really hurting this model, not worried at all about what it shows at the BL

 

[EV/WS]

Nice mesoscale banding features showing up on the NAM in the upstate/areas around CLT, maybe perhaps from the Upper level trough itself, you like to see that signal View attachment 35774

How far west do you believe the banding begins? TIA

 

[Myfrotho704_]

How far west do you believe the banding begins? TIA

To be safe, probably I-77 East, although those bands could develop in the upstate of SC and move west/nw from there

 

[Chazwin]

That sucker is dropping FAST if it is

and if that is line, the CLT metro could be in for a surprise. That’s some strong banding setting up with rates that can come temps down from 38-40 to 30-32 in a hurry

 

[Six Mile Wx]

I’ve been stuck at 46/31

 

[ryan1234]

and if that is line, the CLT metro could be in for a surprise. That’s some strong banding setting up with rates that can come temps down from 38-40 to 30-32 in a hurry

I feel like it's 50/50 at this point. As far as Union, E. Meck. Cabarrus Counties go, we stand the best chance to bust or jackpot. It's going to be a long night for all of us!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ok hrrr warm up temps/mix out the BL with a stiff NE breeze, makes a lot of sense ? watch this thing fold like the last setup

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[iGrey_X]

That is obscene snow in the upstate if you factor in the HRRR warm basis at the surface. The boundary looks great on it. 3pm is all snow on all models in the upstate and that heavy of precip would have things going crazy.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

No doubt about it the HRRR is latching on to the impressive overrunning/WAA and blossoming precip over the western Piedmont whereas before it was wanting to keep it dry. Good trends here, I'd say.

 

[Jessy89]

More models I see the more I feel this is more so a event Greenville county east. 2-3 inches while Pickens Oconee counties be lucky to see a inch. Hate to say it but that warm nose is showing up on the models clear as day


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[Brick Tamland]

37/34 now