Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[Snownut]

Moisture is already at BHM. Cold is going to be our killer. Timing will be off by just a few hours as usual.

But the surface temp is dropping pretty dang quick. I could see the upstate hitting 40 or 41 by time moisture gets here

 

[accu35]

I think Huntsville change over should happen between 6-9 am

 

[John1122]

35.4 with a climbing DP. Was 39 with a 23 DP at 9pm now DP is 30. Wetbulb has maintained around 32. NAM has me at 32 during the height of the snow. Still worried about moisture and temps though. Granted I'm mainly hoping for an inch or two here. Which the EURO just put out again here in my area of Tennessee.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Current one vs 2 hours, it’s dropping, no need to freak out everything is mostly going as it was supposed to, you don’t want sfc/llvl dews in the low 20s/teens otherwise your gonna spend 1/7th if your storm on virga, that looks like a issue in the foothills

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There’s she goes, folding in Tennessee like a lawn chair, it’s mixing/warm bias getting exposed

 

[SNOWMANN]

I am literally just due north of those yellows. Not sure if I should be nervous or optimistic. I'm going with nervous! So close to possibly jackpotting but so close to a sleet fest.

Thats how we roll bro Living on the edge =) 38.3/29.6

 

[John1122]

There’s she goes, folding in Tennessee like a lawn chair, it’s mixing/warm bias getting exposed

I have always looked at the HRRR more inside 8-10 hours. RAP too. Doesn't surprise me to see it coming more in line with prior modeling as it gets towards its wheelhouse.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

hrrr now has those “snow islands” in that band, likely a sign it’s about to fold in NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I have always looked at the HRRR more inside 8-10 hours. RAP too. Doesn't surprise me to see it coming more in line with prior modeling as it gets towards its wheelhouse.

Yeah I was seeing some today take the hrrr serious, can’t be until it’s under 6-10 hours, just reinforcing that with those posts

 

[ryan1234]

Current one vs 2 hours, it’s dropping, no need to freak out everything is mostly going as it was supposed to, you don’t want sfc/llvl dews in the low 20s/teens otherwise your gonna spend 1/7th if your storm on virga, that looks like a issue in the foothills View attachment 35809View attachment 35810

Now that's what I want to see. Huge difference. I am currently at 44. DP is 32. Not too shabby.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

But the surface temp is dropping pretty dang quick. I could see the upstate hitting 40 or 41 by time moisture gets here

40 or 41 is so far from where we need to be though. 44.5 for me now. If it were only 10 degrees colder!

 

[Rick]

Do we have a chance at snow here close to tn line in Alabama it looks a little too warm sadly so close too grr

 

[ajr]

Surface temps verifying a little colder than modeled on the NAM:

 

[ColaSnow]

Send me a picture of the snow in your yard, and I will change it right now.

Also guys, don't bash the NWS please. The weather will do what it wants regardless of any advisory or warning.

I've been saying for a decade that I don't know why people get so wrapped up in advisories, watches and warnings. I certainly understand it's necessary to alert the general public, but I just never knew why people would be bothered when they received one.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr run a few hours ago vs the new one

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Lol Nashville about to get it on the action if you believe the HRRR.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM 12km

 

[Broken024]

This looks way better for the upstate and into the south charlotte area

 

[Broken024]

NAM 12km View attachment 35818View attachment 35819View attachment 35820View attachment 35821View attachment 35822

Yep just posted this, looks to transitiom to snow earlier?

 

[Clem282340]

NAM 12km View attachment 35818View attachment 35819View attachment 35820View attachment 35821View attachment 35822

That’s a huge increase over the upstate