Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[superjames1992]

No doubt about it the HRRR is latching on to the impressive overrunning/WAA and blossoming precip over the western Piedmont whereas before it was wanting to keep it dry. Good trends here, I'd say.

This is in theory what the short range guidance should pick up on better, I think. But we’ll see. Just think, we’re like 12 hours away from this starting for some of our posters!

Looks like the 00z RGEM and ICON are basically carbon copies of their 18z runs.

 

[DopplerWx]

Gfs holds serve. A beaut.

 

[Stephenb888]

More models I see the more I feel this is more so a event Greenville county east. 2-3 inches while Pickens Oconee counties be lucky to see a inch. Hate to say it but that warm nose is showing up on the models clear as day


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Im pretty sure this is gonna be an entire upstate event.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This is in theory what the short range guidance should pick up on better, I think. But we’ll see. Just think, we’re like 12 hours away from this starting for some of our posters!

Looks like the 00z RGEM and ICON are basically carbon copies of their 18z runs.

 

[$alt]

There is a lot of guidance suggesting of temperature problems, as of this time, for the upstate of SC. Eastern NC looks to be the best spot, as we sit. Please be careful speaking in literals.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 35788

Look how smooth those yellows are vs those rough yellows in GA/south of CAE, suggesting that hydrometers aren’t giving it that rough looks that’s Heavy snow just aloft

 

[Chazwin]

I feel like it's 50/50 at this point. As far as Union, E. Meck. Cabarrus Counties go, we stand the best chance to bust or jackpot. It's going to be a long night for all of us!

Huntersville, Concord, Kannapolis should all definitely be fine I think. The big question is for Charlotte, Monroe, to Albemarle. How quickly can that warm nose collapse and how much if any they can get in on the deform band from the developing coastal

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Look how smooth those yellows are vs those rough yellows in GA/south of CAE, suggesting that hydrometers aren’t giving it that rough looks that’s Heavy snow just aloft

So you saying heavy snow aloft south of Columbia?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So you saying heavy snow aloft south of Columbia?

No, I’m saying those returns south of Columbia look rougher vs those returns up north, that’s rain aloft in south Columbia, it’s a bit close tho

 

[$alt]

So you saying heavy snow aloft south of Columbia?

You need to see 850 0.2c or lower. that lines stays well away for the majority of the precipitation.

 

[Spurs up]

You need to see 850 0.2c or lower. that lines stays well away for the majority of the precipitation.

"majority" so maybe tail end.

 

[crecre9]

There seem to be more returns over Texas and Kansas already than models predicted... Could that be good for TN/ N AL?

I think we're just going to be too warm on this one.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr and nam vs obs (04z)

 

[tucker]

I think we're just going to be too warm on this one.

Yep. We are still sitting at 50

 

[crecre9]

Hrrr and nam vs obs (04z)View attachment 35795View attachment 35797View attachment 35798

Appears very similar, maybe a bit flatter.

 

[crecre9]

I think the trends are poor for Madison and Limestone counties

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Hrrr and nam vs obs (04z)View attachment 35795View attachment 35797View attachment 35798

FWIW Nam is correct with the CAD signature.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I see some winter storm warnings are up for Tennessee. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the biggest winner in the mtns with 6-12”.

 

[SD]

Good grief the cams for tomorrow once they flip to snow its a few hours of pound town

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Surprised the winds from the wedging are getting all the way down here. They're howling quite a bit.