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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

iGrey_X said:
It should. That line has already set up in northern Union county, the Roebuck and woodruff areas of Spartanburg county, back towards Simpsonville and extreme NE Anderson county. That’s a very good sign from this look.
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I’m in a northern Georgia county and we are pretty much right on the line so I’m trying to figure out whether or not I’m gonna go chasing or hang tight


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Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


View attachment 35728
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I’m in that white circle, is this where mixing will be or somewhere in there the line will be
 
SD said:
I was wondering if that was bright banding or the model trying to enhance precip along the 850mb convergence
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Oconeexman said:
I support this analysis! Will be interesting which mesoscale model handles this the best. I'm sure it will differ from area to area.
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Yeah if you look at the 850 temps, that bright band is basically where the leading edge of the warm nose would be (warm nose in this case is strongest around 800mb but you get the idea w/ 850 temps), that lines up perfectly w/ where the bright band shows up on the HRRR reflectivity.

That bright band just barely stays south of Greenville-Spartanburg and there's some wiggle room for Charlotte too

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Cadi40 said:
Webber, what does this mean in simpler terms? Are you saying this is where the rain/snow line may set up or are you saying Charlotte may be under one of the heavier bands?
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Yes in simpler terms once you remove the issues the HRRR is having in the boundary layer (BL), that bright band is basically telling you in the model where the rain/snow line would be
 
KyloG said:
You got to give it to the NAM...for the past 3 days it hasn't budged.

View attachment 35735
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To be fair it hasnt waffled much for the heart of NC. But for the upstate and Ne Ga and Tenn it has. The snow line has bounced around quite a bit. But has with most of the models. I'd say it hasnt varied as much as the other models for sure though.
 
malak05 said:
NAMs and WRFs have shown more amped solutions and even more late precip falling as temps crash the more of that we see in the coming hours of models the more legit some parts north of I-20 could see some passing snow showers which could be heavy in the short window it will be around so who know fingers crossed to see a little accumulation this year got skunked a few weeks ago
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I’m with ya man! I was skunked by 5 mi or less!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah if you look at the 850 temps, that bright band is basically where the leading edge of the warm nose would be (warm nose in this case is strongest around 800mb but you get the idea w/ 850 temps), that lines up perfectly w/ where the bright band shows up on the HRRR reflectivity.

That bright band just barely stays south of Greenville-Spartanburg and there's some wiggle room for Charlotte too

.

View attachment 35738






Yes in simpler terms once you remove the issues the HRRR is having in the boundary layer (BL), that bright band is basically telling you in the model where the rain/snow line would be
Click to expand...
How is hrrr with 850 line this far out
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah if you look at the 850 temps, that bright band is basically where the leading edge of the warm nose would be (warm nose in this case is strongest around 800mb but you get the idea w/ 850 temps), that lines up perfectly w/ where the bright band shows up on the HRRR reflectivity.

That bright band just barely stays south of Greenville-Spartanburg and there's some wiggle room for Charlotte too

.

View attachment 35738






Yes in simpler terms once you remove the issues the HRRR is having in the boundary layer (BL), that bright band is basically telling you in the model where the rain/snow line would be
Click to expand...
I’m sitting right smack dab in the middle of the 0c line. I think it’s gonna be a dog fight here. My house is sitting right on the slop line. Which is the case more times than not
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


View attachment 35728
Click to expand...


Are you referring to everything north of the bottom or top of your circle? Sorry if that's a stupid question. I am in Union County, NC so I would like your opinion. You always have a great grasp on forecasting and I respect what you have to say. TIA!
 
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