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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


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KyloG said:
18z Euro was identical.

Here are comparisons of the 18z NAM and 18z Euro at hour 27, 30, 33. Let's see how this lines up tomorrow. I prefer the juiced up NAM's but means some are toeing the line.

View attachment 35724View attachment 35725View attachment 35726
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Would this be a situation where you look at the low placement and meet in the middle for a blend or do you think the nam is right that far north with low placement?
 
Shaggy said:
Would this be a situation where you look at the low placement and meet in the middle for a blend or do you think the nam is right that far north with low placement?
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I think the NAM's are a little over amped but I also think the Euro precip shield will be shifted NW more and thus could bring higher totals down I-40 corridor.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


View attachment 35728
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I was wondering if that was bright banding or the model trying to enhance precip along the 850mb convergence
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain.


View attachment 35728
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That’s 11am-Noon timeframe and already has the line below 85. This is a warm biased model especially at this range so this has my attention.
 
iGrey_X said:
That’s 11am-Noon timeframe and already has the line below 85. This is a warm biased model especially at this range so this has my attention.
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Because that line should only get lower throughout the day? Technically speaking?


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BackThePack said:
I've watched it rain at 22f before. Warm noses eat CADs for breakfast/lunch/dinner. CAD is terrible for snow.
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Reason being is that CAD events are caused by cold air being trapped by the mountains, leaving a shallow cold layer. Perfect opportunity for a warm nose to leave you with freezing rain.

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Dawgdaze22 said:
Because that line should only get lower throughout the day? Technically speaking?


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It should. That line has already set up in northern Union county, the Roebuck and woodruff areas of Spartanburg county, back towards Simpsonville and extreme NE Anderson county. That’s a very good sign from this look.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


View attachment 35728
Click to expand...
I support this analysis! Will be interesting which mesoscale model handles this the best. I'm sure it will differ from area to area.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once you remove the spurious boundary layer issues w/ the HRRR, and pay close attention to this melting layer bright band on its forecast reflectivity output (which is basically where the rain-snow line would be), I'm definitely a fan of where it keeps putting this bright band (which I've circled in white) in the SW piedmont of NC and extreme upstate SC at the start of the event when our air mass is most marginal/least favorable for snow. Everything north of that would be falling as snow, to the south would be rain. Definitely suggests more snow for the GSP-CLT corridor


View attachment 35728
Click to expand...
Webber, what does this mean in simpler terms? Are you saying this is where the rain/snow line may set up or are you saying Charlotte may be under one of the heavier bands?
 
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