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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Brick Tamland

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Looks like it did end up about half of what the NAM was showing. It's crazy that the short range models get the totals wrong so often when they are the ones that should be the best for short range forecasting. Although, it did get the location correct with regards to which areas would see the most amounts.
 

Shawn

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Looks like it did end up about half of what the NAM was showing. It's crazy that the short range models get the totals wrong so often when they are the ones that should be the best for short range forecasting. Although, it did get the location correct with regards to which areas would see the most amounts.
I ran a test a year or so ago about rainfall forecasts via the models. I'm pretty sure the GEFS or something did the best, but I can't remember. That was before the FV3 upgrade if it's so, though.

@Webberweather53 , what caused the Euro to continually keep the surface reflection of that low so weak? I'm wondering if that is a major reason why it refused to get precipitation up to NC for the longest time? I know from memory that a lot of runs just kinda had a barely weak surface low (if one at all) moving on OTS.
 

Shaggy

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Please forgive me for one more weenie post. One of the coolest things about today has been this morphing of snow covered trees to the dangling ice formations on the branches. It literally looks like the trees were decorated for Christmas. It's almost like the snow melted slowly since we've been 32 all day and as they melted they formed the ice hanging off the branches. I tried to get a video as best I could. Not sure I've seen this before. Usually the trees melt first with big chunks of snow splatting the ground.

 
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First post ever! I’ve been watching in the background for some time now! And I’m learning a lot from so many of you who are so talented! I love following along with all of your post and predictions because our local TV Mets are generally last minute on making up their minds. So I’m really just posting to show my appreciation to all of you who stay up late and analyze things to give us your best “forecast” possible!
 

accu35

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First post ever! I’ve been watching in the background for some time now! And I’m learning a lot from so many of you who are so talented! I love following along with all of your post and predictions because our local TV Mets are generally last minute on making up their minds. So I’m really just posting to show my appreciation to all of you who stay up late and analyze things to give us your best “forecast” possible!
Welcome
 
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