I ran a test a year or so ago about rainfall forecasts via the models. I'm pretty sure the GEFS or something did the best, but I can't remember. That was before the FV3 upgrade if it's so, though.Looks like it did end up about half of what the NAM was showing. It's crazy that the short range models get the totals wrong so often when they are the ones that should be the best for short range forecasting. Although, it did get the location correct with regards to which areas would see the most amounts.
First post ever! I’ve been watching in the background for some time now! And I’m learning a lot from so many of you who are so talented! I love following along with all of your post and predictions because our local TV Mets are generally last minute on making up their minds. So I’m really just posting to show my appreciation to all of you who stay up late and analyze things to give us your best “forecast” possible!