• This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
532
Reaction score
1,127
Location
Durham, NC
RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.
Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.
 
Last edited:

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,080
Reaction score
23,563
Location
Charlotte, NC
RDU received 2.5" of snow with .47" of QPF. That close to 1:5 ratios (I'm sure it was lower for folks south of there). If it had been 1:10 (normal) ratios we would have seen 5-7" readings across the Triangle. But not complaining. Glad for what I got.
Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh
 

Shaggy

Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Messages
979
Reaction score
1,602
Location
Greenville,nc
Snow liquid ratios here were abysmal, 0.15" QPF fell as snow yesterday in Fayetteville after the changeover to snow, and we picked up just over 0.5" of snow, yielding about 4:1 SLRs here (hardly better than pure sleet). Even a semi-normal event would have yielded at least 1" here. Ugh
I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.
 

KyloG

Member
Joined
Feb 20, 2019
Messages
1,583
Reaction score
5,186
Location
Raleigh
Sounds like QPF forecasts were pretty in line with what happened, then. At go time, the only one that was obscenely off was yesterday’s 12z RGEM, she spit our a ridiculous 1” QPF for RDU.

I think places like GSO may have gotten a little more liquid equivalent than forecasted.
Euro/EPS was pretty good at showing right around 0.5" QPF. Hard to beat that combo. 5/1 ratios sounds reasonable.
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,080
Reaction score
23,563
Location
Charlotte, NC
I went through the spotter training in January and did everything I could to keep an accurate ongoing measurement but it was nearly impossible. The rate of melt and compaction was absurd.

2 oddities of the storm had to be heavy sleet at 46 degrees and the horrible ratios.
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,080
Reaction score
23,563
Location
Charlotte, NC
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Ground temps weren't everything but they definitely didn't help, when temps fell below freezing here, about half the snow that fell melted before sunrise (a dusting over several hours).
 

Ilovesnow28

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
612
Reaction score
807
Location
Tuscaloosa Al
Oh cool!! I know that we had more when I went to bed. Look like it compacted pretty good here at my place. I’m really glad you got to see a good snowfall. The plus is the roads are clear after 4”!! When are planning on heading out?
I'll be heading back tomorrow afternoon... Yeah I'm glad I got a chance to see a snowstorm again it was definitely worth it and blessed
 

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
532
Reaction score
1,127
Location
Durham, NC
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Just imagine how bad it would be if this snow fell from like 10 AM - 2 PM. We'd be lucky to have any snow left by nightfall.
 

smast16

Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2019
Messages
207
Reaction score
378
Location
Kernersville
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Interesting thing of note for here was it never rained at onset. All the rain was virga and when it finally saturated enough to make it all the way down it was already falling as snow. I kept watching the paver stones out the front window for signs of them getting wet, but nothing. Then I looked and it was flurrying.
 

Brick Tamland

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,949
Reaction score
4,786
Location
Wake Forest, NC
Yeah, the ratios were terrible, like much worse than I thought they'd be here. We definitely had the moisture and the precip type, I think warm ground played a role but having surface temps just above freezing and rain before hand (which increased the thermal capacity of the ground when snow fell on it) really hurt us. The one thing we had going for us was that most of the snow fell after dark here. If we had respectable air & ground temps and actually started out as snow, I think my forecast would have verified.
Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.
 

BirdManDoomW

Leader of the bird cult
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
2,498
Reaction score
1,732
Location
Northwest NC
Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.
 

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
532
Reaction score
1,127
Location
Durham, NC
Snow has to be the hardest type of weather to predict for NC. It seems there are just too many factors that affect things like the ratios, rates, warm nose, ground temps, etc. It seems the models have a hard time getting it right here compared to other weather events like severe storms or just plain rain.
Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.
 

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
532
Reaction score
1,127
Location
Durham, NC
Had a lot of negative comments and reactions for saying western NC would see the most snow. Well if Beech had 4.5” I’m sure someone higher up closer to TN had over 6”.
I don't think anyone is particularly surprised that the higher elevations in the mountains cleaned up. They almost always do in nearly every setup.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
8,883
Reaction score
14,690
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Part of it, too, is that rainfall forecasts bust all the time and no one really cares. No one cares if they get 0.5" of rain instead of 1". But that's the difference between 5" and 10" of snow (ignorantly assuming 10:1 ratios, which we often don't get), potentially, which is a bigger deal.
Which one of these is not like the others snku_acc.us_ma (1).png snku_acc.us_ma.png sn10_acc.us_ma (2).png
 

snowlover91

Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2018
Messages
2,241
Reaction score
3,836
Location
Wilson, NC
The 12km NAM struggled a lot with this one, way too amped but the 3km NAM was very good on this. Here’s the forecast from 12z Wednesday, a touch too far north but the overall totals are pretty close when using Kuchera. Highest report I’ve seen is 5.1” so far. Also I added the snow depth map from it. Perhaps a blend of these two would yield a very good result?

4EC668D3-D4B8-4258-B85F-02CF5A7CD619.jpeg
FD623995-0659-44EE-8524-65E8D6A8B277.jpeg
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,080
Reaction score
23,563
Location
Charlotte, NC
Here's my preliminary post-analysis of this evident in NC. There's a lot of spatial inhomogeneities to the snowfall amounts, several localized bands are evident, the most obvious one that sticks out to me is the band of higher amounts that extends from southeast Charlotte towards Montgomery & Moore counties.

February 20-21 2020 NC Snowmap.png
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,269
Reaction score
16,570
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
Yeah, we're definitely not hitting our forecast high here. The coldest night of the winter will be tonight.

Regardless, tons of snow is melting under the severe sun angle.
Coldest night for me yet this winter is 23, well actually in November I dipped into the teens, but that's unheard. Could make a run at it tonight
 

tramadoc

Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
Messages
802
Reaction score
1,448
Location
Elizabeth City
Here's my preliminary post-analysis of this evident in NC. There's a lot of spatial inhomogeneities to the snowfall amounts, several localized bands are evident, the most obvious one that sticks out to me is the band of higher amounts that extends from southeast Charlotte towards Montgomery & Moore counties.

View attachment 36141
That’s a really fcking accurate map for far NE NC. Good job bro. Good job.
 
Top