Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

[MichaelJ]

Here is what GSO/W-S is showing. Very little of anything except snow.

 

[Ethan80963]

Here is a map I found of dew points. Is that CAD forming already?

 

[SD]

Yeah orientation seems off seeing the other nam guidance has been showing more east to west oriented maximums.

It's far more subdued on the front end and really highlights a single band that gets going later tomorrow afternoon as the sfc low gets going

 

[Chazwin]

The NAM has DP around here at 40 and it’s currently down to 30 already so this is very interesting to say the least.

If this continues it should be interesting to see what solutions we see in the short range high res models as the initialize based on current conditions

 

[WxBlue]

A little off topic, but something to note about this storm is that it’s happening with the teleconnections pretty terrible across the board. It just goes to show you can luck into some snow in almost any pattern.

Historically peak positive AO, at that...

 

[iGrey_X]

Here is a map I found of dew points. Is that CAD forming already?
View attachment 35718

That is absolutely CAD showing up in the upper atmosphere.

 

[FallsLake]

(almost)Clear skies and 41 degrees. It would be great to get to freezing, but just to have temps in the 30s for 14 hours or so will do wonders for the ground temps.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

43/40 in Cary currently. Temp dropped 3 degrees In last 20 minutes

 

[Jessy89]

That is absolutely CAD showing up in the upper atmosphere.

Could that save us from that dreaded warm nose?


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[BirdManDoomW]

WWA now out for Surry/Wilkes for 2”. Let’s hope the dry cold north/east winds don’t eat away at precip.

 

[iGrey_X]

Could that save us from that dreaded warm nose?


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Well considering even the HRRR is initializing 7 degrees too high for DP, these things absolutely count. It can beat back the warm nose just enough. Especially since I think the NAM is a little TOO amped up as well. You couple those 2 things together and it can only help.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Could that save us from that dreaded warm nose?


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It would likely keep surface temps cooler but wouldn't stop a warm nose. In February 2015, RDU reported sleet in the upper teens because the warm nose was so strong.

 

[cyclogent]

Looking forward to the 0z upper air data from Nashville, in particular temps at 850mb.

 

[eyewall]

Final call:

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Here is a map I found of dew points. Is that CAD forming already?
View attachment 35718

Of note: The models have been calculating what’s going to happen but the next runs will be from what’s actually happening in the forecast areas

 

[Six Mile Wx]

18z Euro

 

[NCSNOW]

43/40 in Cary currently. Temp dropped 3 degrees In last 20 minutes

Stars out back this way. Great radiational cooling underway. Yall should clear soon

 

[KyloG]

18z Euro was identical.

Here are comparisons of the 18z NAM and 18z Euro at hour 27, 30, 33. Let's see how this lines up tomorrow. I prefer the juiced up NAM's but means some are toeing the line.

 

[NCSNOW]

Final call:

Thought Raleigh was a lock, guranteed nada.. you guranteed

 

[Stormlover]

18z EuroView attachment 35723

got that for a little farther west?