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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Nomanslandva said:
My experience with soundings (have only been looking at them for the last several years, so very limited) showing a warm nose, is take the warmest sounding and expect worse. If you see that signature in graphical or text soundings, it always seems to over perform.
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Only thing about that is if the situation was showing it through the entire event or it growing in midway through. This case has it going away eventually, but I'll mostly expect rain and hope the warm is wrong.
 
Just saw this from WRAL met Kat Cambell on Facebook.

I’ll show you the latest snowfall forecast and some exclusive model data we have here at WRAL: European model chances of 1”, 3”, 6” of snow and future road temperatures.

Why are they still using the long range Euro for totals instead of the short range models? RAH seems to be doing it, too. I don't get it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Only thing about that is if the situation was showing it through the entire event or it growing in midway through. This case has it going away eventually, but I'll mostly expect rain and hope the warm is wrong.
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True, this one is different in that way! I guess that is why the NAM3km gives me .1 of snow. Incoming cold is shoving this thing too far offshore for me here:(
 
I see what the NAM is depicting out I think those random pockets of more precip are under those heavy deformation banding when the storm wraps around .. obviously the model can’t place exactly where they’ll be but whoever gets to be under those will see the localized way higher snow totals ... truly a fun event to now cast tomorrow


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ForsythSnow said:
Steady for NC, but for GA and TN it's been a rollercoaster.
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Yeah, good point. 20-30 miles going to be a big difference for everyone. I do think the northern extent of the precip shield will be further north than the NAM's have.
 
Ugafanofweather said:
I wonder if they see something in other models or the soundings. Interesting to see that
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It's just going to be about how much moisture hangs around from the initial load tomorrow if the moisture train lingers into the afternoon perhaps a little juicer means when temps crash will see some areas hit by changeover nothing as of right now point to accumulations but still a few more hours of models and then now-casting
 
Ugafanofweather said:
I wonder if they see something in other models or the soundings. Interesting to see that
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Huntsville referenced the soundings in their AFD as to why they may have to get more bullish, so I imagine it’s the same for FFC. Given the way the moisture has ramped up for the I-20 corridor in the latest model runs it wouldn’t take much to create a decent event if the thermals ticked colder. But I must not allow myself to believe.
 
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