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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Interesting tidbit from FFC. They are actually saying areas around here could get at least a dusting
This cooler air moving in right on the heals of the exiting precip
will cause some issues across N GA Thu afternoon through Friday
morning in the form of Freezing/Frozen precip. With cold air
advection, temperature profiles are supporting a rain/freezing
rain/snow mix or transition to light snow across primarily the
higher elevations of north Georgia by midday Thursday and moving
southward in the north ATL suburbs Thursday evening. Could see mixed
precip as far south as Newnan to Eatonton line but not expecting any
accumulations south of Interstate 20. We have issued a winter
weather advisory for NE GA where we are expecting a mixture of rain
and freezing rain transitioning to snow and rain and finally to all
snow. Total ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. Total snow
accumulations of up to one inch except up to two inches in the
highest elevations.

There will be some light accumulations south of the advisory area but
it should not cause any issues.
Click to expand...
 
Latest NAM is looking more realistic for my area, less than 1/2", if that.
snku_acc.us_ov.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Interesting tidbit from FFC. They are actually saying areas around here could get at least a dusting
Click to expand...

NAMs and WRFs have shown more amped solutions and even more late precip falling as temps crash the more of that we see in the coming hours of models the more legit some parts north of I-20 could see some passing snow showers which could be heavy in the short window it will be around so who know fingers crossed to see a little accumulation this year got skunked a few weeks ago
 
Poimen said:
SREF mean has increased for GSO from 2" to 3" to now over 4" over the last three runs. Every time the SREF does this--in my experience--the storm over performs relative to official forecasts.
Click to expand...

Can you post the SREF's? I don't have access to them. TIA!
 
malak05 said:
NAMs and WRFs have shown more amped solutions and even more late precip falling as temps crash the more of that we see in the coming hours of models the more legit some parts north of I-20 could see some passing snow showers which could be heavy in the short window it will be around so who know fingers crossed to see a little accumulation this year got skunked a few weeks ago
Click to expand...
I don't think anywhere south of Forsyth county will see heavy snow at any point however. Maybe a light snow shower at the end for a bit. I say look ahead and look for another system. This one isn't focused on GA.

Something I have noticed is the NAM seems crazy about the warm nose. The HRRR seems to not be as warm as the NAM, and I want to see which model ends up performing better in that department.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't think anywhere south of Forsyth county will see heavy snow at any point however. Maybe a light snow shower at the end for a bit. I say look ahead and look for another system. This one isn't focused on GA.

Something I have noticed is the NAM seems crazy about the warm nose. The HRRR seems to not be as warm as the NAM, and I want to see which model ends up performing better in that department.
Click to expand...

Something in between, ignoring the BL issues the hrrr suffers with, would be money
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't think anywhere south of Forsyth county will see heavy snow at any point however. Maybe a light snow shower at the end for a bit. I say look ahead and look for another system. This one isn't focused on GA.

Something I have noticed is the NAM seems crazy about the warm nose. The HRRR seems to not be as warm as the NAM, and I want to see which model ends up performing better in that department.
Click to expand...
The difference for the same location relatively is insane.
hrrrvsnam1.pnghrrrvsnam2.png
 
Not sure which model they are using, but NWS has snow starting around noon for me tomorrow and lasting at least 12 hours.
86992749_1869202799889841_1631693122683535360_o.jpg
 
I still feel like the NAM is overamped. I know, I've said it before. But doesn't the NAM tend to do that? I know it's better with thermals. Also, when do we really start paying more attention to short-range guidance? Now or we wait until later this evening/tonight?
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't think anywhere south of Forsyth county will see heavy snow at any point however. Maybe a light snow shower at the end for a bit. I say look ahead and look for another system. This one isn't focused on GA.

Something I have noticed is the NAM seems crazy about the warm nose. The HRRR seems to not be as warm as the NAM, and I want to see which model ends up performing better in that department.
Click to expand...
My experience with soundings (have only been looking at them for the last several years, so very limited) showing a warm nose, is take the warmest sounding and expect worse. If you see that signature in graphical or text soundings, it always seems to over perform.
 
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