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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Poimen said:
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This could still workout, maybe...

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This is going to be one of those storms where folks that see frozen precip especially upstate, will see it all but maybe ZR.
 
Bsud said:
This is going to be one of those storms where folks that see frozen precip especially upstate, will see it all but maybe ZR.
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The ZR chance is quite low in this type of setup. Sleet, sure, but the surface isn't too great for pure ZR for the most part. Black Ice, very much so.
 
Now casting time. Things to watch for that matter A LOT. 1) how much do north-east winds eat away at precip esp Triad/foothills 2) arrival time, quicker for heavy amounts of snow, delayed could cause some white rain particularly east of i77 3) rates are gonna matter otherwise daylight hours will feature lots of melting and slush
 
SimeonNC said:


Robert from WxSouth gives his opinion on the storm, mentions the possibility of thundersleet in some areas? How likely would that be?
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With that jet overhead I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see thunder snow and thunder sleet in bands. The biggest thunder sleet I’ve ever been through was January 1996 and it was unbelievable how heavy it was and how quickly it piled up.
 
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I think I have finally convinced myself that the higher totals will be closer to reality. However, as is often the case in these parts, we are walking a fine line with a number of offsetting positives/negatives. But in the end I think the positives will outweigh the negatives across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, with totals ranging from 2-4" across the Triad/NW Piedmont; 3-6" for RDU/NCNTCL Piedmont; and 4-8" for the NE Piedmont/Northern Coastal Plain over to ECG. Most locations south of HWY 64/264 will have some mixing issues, reducing snow totals in these regions.

That's my take for what its worth. Good luck to everyone.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For people that live around CLT, Areas north of CLT like concord/kannapolis/huntersville/Cornelius/
LKN/Salisbury is probably gonna cash out being right north of the IP and In the heaviest part of the snow band
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and I still wouldn’t dismiss SE parts or the metro area like Monroe to Albemarle getting in on the deform band tomorrow night as the coastal really ramps up
 
I just had a chance to look over to data and the board. Needless to say, I still can't believe how much inconsistency the models are still showing, less than 24 hours away! It really is crazy. Having said that, I do still feel like the NAM is a bit overamped, which it is in most cases. This storm is undoubtedly going to be a nowcasting system. There are literally no watches to speak of and that speaks volumes of the amount of uncertainty.
 
Is Upstate S.C. pretty much out of this now? I’m hoping we will get a bigger surprise like a few weeks ago.
 
Chazwin said:
and I still wouldn’t dismiss SE parts or the metro area like Monroe to Albemarle getting in on the deform band tomorrow night as the coastal really ramps up
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Yeah, but those areas will be in the frontogenic band with snow, and also in the departing band of snow, that’ll pile up for them
 
Poimen said:
I think I have finally convinced myself that the higher totals will be closer to reality. However, as is often the case in these parts, we are walking a fine line with a number of offsetting positives/negatives. But in the end I think the positives will outweigh the negatives across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, with totals ranging from 2-4" across the Triad/NW Piedmont; 3-6" for RDU/NCNTCL Piedmont; and 4-8" for the NE Piedmont/Northern Coastal Plain over to ECG. Most locations south of HWY 64/264 will have some mixing issues, reducing snow totals in these regions.

That's my take for what its worth. Good luck to everyone.
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I like your take Lol... honestly I'm there with you on that. If I were to draw a map that's what it would look like. Going to be fun and agonizing Thursday night looking at CC and watching that line march NW though
 
Stephenb888 said:
Is Upstate S.C. pretty much out of this now? I’m hoping we will get a bigger surprise like a few weeks ago.
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Nobody is out of the event, due to wrap around moisture. We are monitoring how amplified the system will become, which will bring warm air with it, but set up an impressive changeover zone to heavy snow.
 
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