iGRXY
Member
it wasn't good for the western upstate, Eastern Greenville county, Spartanburg County, Cherokee county, Northern Union County and York County did well. 3-5 swath through those areas.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
I also don't know if this thing will be THAT amped up either.
clt finally gets rid of the warm nose tomorrow at 4pm.
SnowNiner
Member
3K NAM, Generaly 3-5 inches across the board for NC. Temps are consistently an issue.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I doubt it means much, but the HRRR was a hot mess with DPs starting in the lower 30s, while the NAM started with a DP of 27 in my location.
3km NAM
iGRXY
Member
It means nothing. The range for that model is only around 8-12 hours and it is also a very warm biased model. Don't even look at this until tomorrow.
HRRRX 12z will go out much further in time, and the 06z showed some signs of lower accumulations on the snow maps and more sleet, also.
iGRXY
Member
Yes but the range is still very bad and the warm biased on the HRRR is general is very bad.
BackThePack
Member
I agree here... The rates will overcome warm nose is a very rare fringe case and *usually* no applicable here in the Piedmont. The models giveth and the warm nose taketh.
I've heard that they are too warm during the night and too cold during the day, oddly.
ajr
Member
The NAM giveth, then taketh. I’m sweating bullets around RDU looking at the warm nose coming this way.
BackThePack
Member
Also a lot of mentions of a HRRR bias for warmth. I do not have the hard data to disprove this, however, I feel the HRRR has done well with several storms in the 15 hour range. Not going to open that model til sunrise tomorrow .
Heading my way towards Raleigh tonight to battle the sleet snow line once again.. I’ve had my fare share of rumblings with this sucker and I have high hopes we will be on the right side of things most of the time (crosses fingers) but better odds up there than here in Charlotte unfortunately.. and honestly if sleet could cover the ground first that would make it exponentially easier for the snow to stick to everything when it falls and leads to a travel nightmare
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
mainly shows high sfc temps which is why the 12z showed rain.
Further north you are in WAKE the better obviously ... this is going to be a case where the sleet line creeps up on us for a period of time then quickly retreats south and East .. the areas that can squeak by and have all snow will surly be in for a surprise
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MichaelJ
Member
Obviously everyone here hopes the northward drift stops very soon on the NAM and I think it may come 20 miles or so further but not a huge change. Sorry I can't draw the pretty maps so I will just write out what I think. I believe that Charlotte will get 1-3 on snow/sleet total because of major mixing. Raleigh/Wake will see mixing issues cutting down totals to a 4-6" in the Northern part of the county and 3-5" in the southern part of the county. The triad will be the best combo of temps and almost all snow with more mixing in the eastern part of the triad but very little W-S west into Wilkesboro, I will go with 2-4" here. The Eastern coastal plain will be where the largest QPF will fall but south of Kinston there will be a ton of mixing and will cut the totals down several inches, let's go with 4-6". The NE costal plain could see some mixing but also the largest accumulation of snow, 6-10" is my guess. The foothills and mtns will see all snow with the southern mtns seeing a good 4-6" and the northern areas getting less, about 2-3". SC and Ga might see some small accumulation but will have a lot of mixing and rain so 1-2" in the NW part is possible but sadly the midlands will not likely have any accumulating snow.
I will admit here I was hugging the EURO and it has proven to be woefully out of touch compare to the NAM so this is a mea culpa on my part
I will admit here I was hugging the EURO and it has proven to be woefully out of touch compare to the NAM so this is a mea culpa on my part
Last edited:
Nomanslandva
Member
It's funny. As the mix line/warm nose has shifted north, my total qpf has dropped per the NAM12km. So the gradient to the north has tightened while the bull-eye has shifted north a bit. Feeling like another white rain event here.