SnowNiner
Member
I hope so. But the latest nam trend has been worrying me. I'm afraid the warm nose is going to keep climbing. But I think my biggest concern is still surface temps. They're just not cold enough to get good accumulations for us.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I hope so. But the latest nam trend has been worrying me. I'm afraid the warm nose is going to keep climbing. But I think my biggest concern is still surface temps. They're just not cold enough to get good accumulations for us.
This was GSP this morning. I bolded important things.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday: With cold, sfc high pressure to the
northwest and nearly zonal flow aloft, along with a stationary front
well south of the area, the potential for snow across the area
remains the main topic of interest for the forecast period.
While guidance continues to disagree on total QPF with this event
(as has been the trend the past few days), the general consensus
continues for cyclogenesis along the front somewhere off the GA/FL
Coast on Thursday, as the parent sfc low then moves just off the
Carolina coast into Thursday afternoon. With upper dynamic support,
along with moisture infiltrating in across the Gulf states and
Southeast, precipitation is expected across the area Thursday,
tapering off into Thursday night as the system pulls away. Expect
precip to be ongoing at the beginning of the fcst period, with
mainly snow across the mountains, and all rain across northeast GA
and the Upstate given temperatures around daybreak in the lower 40s.
Temperatures are expected to decrease throughout the rest of the
day, and as this occurs, precipitation is expected to expand across
the area. Per latest fcst soundings, the NAM continues to be the
outlier suggesting a small window of wintry mix around midday as
precipitation transitions from rain to snow. Meanwhile, both the GFS
and ECMWF suggest a clean cut rain to snow transition. Thus, have
kept with this trend into the early afternoon hours, though wet bulb
temps suggest the transition could occur sooner, around noon,
especially around the CLT Metro area. Something to keep a close eye
on. Throughout the afternoon hours, the rain/snow line will shift
southward into the Upstate as temperatures continue to drop.
However, as this transition occurs into the evening, QPF will
decrease significantly as well. Thus, with this fcst package, the
Upstate and portions of northeast GA will struggle to see much in
the way of snow accumulation, while across across the NW Piedmont
could see a dusting to near an inch, and slightly higher amounts
across the mountains, especially across the higher elevations.
Expect all precipitation to dissipate overnight. Any changes in the
next guidance could alter snow accumulations, and could warrant the
issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory.
On Friday, expect dry conditions as sfc high pressure builds in.
However, given recent rain/snow, along with low temperatures Friday
morning in the low to upper 20s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont,
into the teens across the mountains, black ice issues will become a
concern, especially given any residual water/snow on roadways and
elevated surfaces. With clouds clearing out throughout the day,
expect high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 40s across the
Upstate and NW Piedmont, with temperatures across the mountains in
the 30s, with the higher elevations struggling to reach freezing.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Wednesday: With cold, sfc high pressure to the
northwest and nearly zonal flow aloft, along with a stationary front
well south of the area, the potential for snow across the area
remains the main topic of interest for the forecast period.
While guidance continues to disagree on total QPF with this event
(as has been the trend the past few days), the general consensus
continues for cyclogenesis along the front somewhere off the GA/FL
Coast on Thursday, as the parent sfc low then moves just off the
Carolina coast into Thursday afternoon. With upper dynamic support,
along with moisture infiltrating in across the Gulf states and
Southeast, precipitation is expected across the area Thursday,
tapering off into Thursday night as the system pulls away. Expect
precip to be ongoing at the beginning of the fcst period, with
mainly snow across the mountains, and all rain across northeast GA
and the Upstate given temperatures around daybreak in the lower 40s.
Temperatures are expected to decrease throughout the rest of the
day, and as this occurs, precipitation is expected to expand across
the area. Per latest fcst soundings, the NAM continues to be the
outlier suggesting a small window of wintry mix around midday as
precipitation transitions from rain to snow. Meanwhile, both the GFS
and ECMWF suggest a clean cut rain to snow transition. Thus, have
kept with this trend into the early afternoon hours, though wet bulb
temps suggest the transition could occur sooner, around noon,
especially around the CLT Metro area. Something to keep a close eye
on. Throughout the afternoon hours, the rain/snow line will shift
southward into the Upstate as temperatures continue to drop.
However, as this transition occurs into the evening, QPF will
decrease significantly as well. Thus, with this fcst package, the
Upstate and portions of northeast GA will struggle to see much in
the way of snow accumulation, while across across the NW Piedmont
could see a dusting to near an inch, and slightly higher amounts
across the mountains, especially across the higher elevations.
Expect all precipitation to dissipate overnight. Any changes in the
next guidance could alter snow accumulations, and could warrant the
issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory.
On Friday, expect dry conditions as sfc high pressure builds in.
However, given recent rain/snow, along with low temperatures Friday
morning in the low to upper 20s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont,
into the teens across the mountains, black ice issues will become a
concern, especially given any residual water/snow on roadways and
elevated surfaces. With clouds clearing out throughout the day,
expect high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 40s across the
Upstate and NW Piedmont, with temperatures across the mountains in
the 30s, with the higher elevations struggling to reach freezing.
Ilovesnow28
Member
@SD or @Webberweather53 do you think the north east part of North Carolina towards Elizabeth City will do ok?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh, you’ll do okay alright, probably way more than ok. At least 6” seems like a very good bet, potentially quite a bit more depending on where the heaviest banding sets up
packfan98
Moderator
Canadian beefed up totals:
Six Mile Wx
Member
Mine did at weather bell
Dawgdaze22
Member
Do you think N Ga is out of this at this point?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Reminder, try to keep the back yard questions in this thread here:
The maps posted, along with region discussion should give a pretty good idea otherwise.
Misc - Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
I've accepted this winter for what it is along time ago! If it manages to somehow snow still then awesome! But if it doesn't its not that rare. It's been 18 years out of 142 years that CLT has only recorded a tr of snow which is not measurable snow. Only recordable snow. But it is kind of...
southernwx.com
The maps posted, along with region discussion should give a pretty good idea otherwise.
I’m not that worried, once heavy precip moves in, whether its IP/SN, it’ll likely be intense, which will combat warm sfc temps (33-37) and a warm ground and start sticking due to the rates
Still looks to my untrained eye that the NAM tries to get a deform band going, that's still a wild card imo.... stronger system certainly means a better possibility of this.
packfan98
Moderator
I was just going to post this. If you a specific question for another member, you can always send a private message as another option.
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
- Messages
- 919
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Depends on which model has the warm nose or lack of warmth around 800mb depicted correctly. If the Nam is correct we wont see much at all due to the warm layer around 800mb. If Wrf or Hrrr is correct it will be just the opposite..a nice 2-4" snow.
First call map from me. Blue 0.5” to 1” of snowfall. Purple 2” to 6” with locally heavier amounts over half a foot above 3,000ft. Black 1” to 4” snow with high end of range near Boone, Huntersville and Raleigh. Red 3” to 7” of snow with high end of range in Virginia only. Outside of black, dusting to 1” including the city of Charlotte. 
packfan98
Moderator
I guess we toss the RGEM??? The precip map doesn't match any of the other models that I've seen.
Ilovesnow28
Member
I figured I'll go snow chase toward that region but wasn't sure how much that part of North Carolina would get... so I'm taking a leap of faith driving there now
iGRXY
Member
No but Anderson will struggle more than say Greenville, Spartanburg, Gaffney. Probably 1-2" around that way depending on warm nose and transition.
Oconeexman
Member
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2017
- Messages
- 919
- Reaction score
- 2,356
That's a mean ass looking duck!
Good luck NC folks..its your storm for sure
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I'm not either one of them (lol) but I am a native of the area and in my view Elizabeth City should do very well in this set up. It should be near the top of the snow total list when all is said and done.
Until the 18z. Just glanced at the GFS off the MAG site. Mostly the same. I think it's job is done though.