• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

I noticed there seems to be stronger frontogenesis and lift on this run especially in the DGZ. This run keeps high values in that layer over N GA and I think with all that energy and snow pouring out of it, that the warm layer should cool rapidly. It doesn't just show an hour or two of this, it shows 6 continuous hours. Here's around the midpoint. So in total, it takes around 3 to 4 hours to cool the 5C warm nose. Can it do it faster than modeled or will it be slower? insanelyclose.png
 
Storm5 said:
Ok I’m joining the NAM humping parade . It’s burned me more times than I can count but I guess it’s ride or die time for extreme northern Alabama
9ed6786e65cc8504208f569c87edb719.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

All I can hope for is that the northern extent of the precip field isn’t being well modeled here in Nashville...
 
Coastal is stronger, hence the now evident warm nose in to the southern and central coastal plain. Assuming some over-amplification NAM bias due to feedback from the natural offshore baroclinic zone, a solid run for these parts. Taking a classic NAM approach, cut those totals in half but start waxing those sleds or other primitive objects used for.
 
in CLT when a warm nose has gotten started, it has been hard to shake.
Brad P busted big a few years ago, hyping up a storm only to see a warm nose turn nearly all of CLT to just sleet and rain.
Someone in the weather industry told me WCNC was red-hot mad at him and his job was in jeopardy.
Now several years down the road, Brad is probably the foremost Met in CLT TV. He doesn't go out on a limb anymore for big snows.
 
metwannabe said:
Sorry if you're close to that line 48 hrs out you need to be bothered a little, especially with a coastal now forming, it would go against all odds to not wiggle NW some. Take it from many years experience
Click to expand...
Very true just hoping it’s different this time and the cold air can filter in fast on this one before mixing can have too much of a hit .. I mean shoot with the winter we’ve all gotten ANYTHING anyone gets with this storm is going to be fun and exciting to have imo at least
 
Is there anything that the 12k would be better at spotting than the 3k?
 
The NAM jumped to ~11" in the Triad but 3K is a more reasonable ~4". I'd take either and cash out at this point.

With respects to soil temps: the snow should have no trouble accumulating but it will melt from the bottom up, especially after it stops snowing.
 
Also interesting to note

The 3km NAM was much faster with precipitation getting snow started in and around wake county by 8-9 AM and still ending early Friday morning ... could be a fairly “long” duration event
 
tuckermcclendon said:
This reminds me of a system in 2010 or 2011, but I can’t exactly remember.. they called for Chattanooga to get about an inch and we ended up getting about 4inches.

Same set up if I can remember correctly.
Click to expand...
Was probably the End of January 2010 storm, was not a ton of cold air with that one. I made a snowman, with 6 solid inches.
 
Poimen said:
The NAM jumped to ~11" in the Triad but 3K is a more reasonable ~4". I'd take either and cash out at this point.

With respects to soil temps: the snow should have no trouble accumulating but it will melt from the bottom up, especially after it stops snowing.
Click to expand...
Maybe some melting occurs but with this thing going through the night while temps are at 29-30 piedmont wide I think that melting will slow we may lose 1-3 inches to melting of that nature but after that it’s going to be some cold nights and days after that snow/sleet pack
 
Talking to my upstate sc peeps. Anyone think oconee Pickens Greenville Spartanburg counties go under a watch tomorrow? My guess is no probably a Advisory tomorrow evening


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jessy89 said:
Talking to my upstate sc peeps. Anyone think oconee Pickens Greenville Spartanburg counties go under a watch tomorrow? My guess is no probably a Advisory tomorrow evening


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I think we will if models continue to be as aggressive as they are. However, with how conservative GSP is maybe just an advisory but I still think there’s a chance we could see one
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top