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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

Shawn said:
Come on guys; let the current system/front work itself out and lets see how things look at h5 towards Friday evening. There's a lot going on up there right now.
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Lol, I got the ground covered with snow the other night from a system too far east to pay attention to, and because I gave up, I missed what must have been a hell of a snow burst :) I won't get fooled again!
 
I hate the fact that we’re getting a southern stream wave from scraps of the last storm that’s effecting the central US. the northern stream trough wanting to trend further south puts a even further lid on our southern stream wave developing
 
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Hypsometric said:
I guess it depends on the definition of give up. I think that's a reasonable map of what could fall from the sky. Factor in warm ground, less than 10:1 ratios most likely and you basically can get a dusting to maybe a half inch or even one inch in a few lucky spots. I guess for snow-starved areas that haven't seen much, it's at least something. The ceiling for some larger event is all but gone though IMO.
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IMO this never felt like a large event to begin with.
 
Seems there could be more moisture, but the problem is getting enough of it to saturate the snow growth region and to actually precipitate. The GFS and Euro aren't far off with their footprint of 700mb humidity. I'll be watching 700mb on the 12z Euro and if it starts to weaken/suppress off the coast like some other guidance (rgem, canadian) I might would throw in the towel for now and come back to it closer in time.
 
Progressive but the Great Lakes system is well In advance and offers some room for sharpening aided by a stiffening western Caribbean ridge. Nothing major, but setup supports light winter type along the northern periphery.
 
KyloG said:
Where's the DGEX when we need it....

View attachment 112455
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Soon the NAM will be joining it and the ETA in the model graveyard. Anyway… barring a KC style collapse against Cincinnati, the threat this weekend is dead. To me it looks like the next shot is maybe 2/11-/15 timeframe
 
Chazwin said:
Soon the NAM will be joining it and the ETA in the model graveyard. Anyway… barring a KC style collapse against Cincinnati, the threat this weekend is dead. To me it looks like the next shot is maybe 2/11-/15 timeframe
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It's really not completely dead for eastern sections
 
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