Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[SENC]

I would be getting at least a little excited if I was in the NWS Wilmington zones and NWS Columba SC area

KILM AFD..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weekend forecast continues to be problematic with respect to frozen
precip potential. Front will be offshore Sat morning with high
pressure wedging down the coast. This will set up the potential
frozen precipitation scenario for Sat night or Sun AM. A southern
stream cutoff moving into the Southeast at the same time helps
generate a surface low along the stalled front. The strength of the
cold air and the location of the surface low/front combo will
determine precip type. There has been a shift in the ensemble data
since last night. Many more members now showing some sort of frozen
precip. Latest thermal profiles seem more a little more supportive
of sleet than snow or freezing rain, although still a lot of details
that need to be hammered out. In summary, the potential for
mixed/frozen precipitation is increasing, but a lot of uncertainty
with respect to how the event will evolve.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Chances fizzled as of now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

00z guidance went the wrong direction, we’re fighting a battle with the southern stream wave

 

[SnowQueen]

Fwiw
Two Fridays ago I was supposed to get an inch of snow if lucky... I ended up with 3"
This past Friday I was forecast to get 2-3"... I ended up with barely a dusting...

Sooooo much will change with this potential storm all the way up to go time folks!! It's still 84hrs away after all.

 

[NCSNOW]

06z GFS still flatter and further south, temps marginal too.... a minor event still possible of course but a whiff not out of question either.

To reiterate what Fro was saying from get go. Its not temps but the SS Wave we need to be fearful of.
6z was the worst its looked at H5 on the GFS. Its riding solo and there's nothing to amp it up, got to do it independently. Whiff is legit.
Hopefully that want be the case and we can score again. Noticed I've got a few extra minutes of daylight in the afternoon and in about 4-5 weeks we start that least enticing 6 month stretch of wx.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Icon had more precip north and west compared to recent runs. I think models will keep start north and west. Just a matter of how much

 

[NCSNOW]

Wow, I guess this is the year of the SE trends. Usually, you can always count on the NW trend. Not this winter.

Well there's one old time trend that we always could count on and its showed glaringly this week. The euro has been rock steady with this weak sauce/ possible whiff off the NC/SC coast. GFS has been walking it back getting in line with the Euro all week.

 

[Shaggy]

Well there's one old time trend that we always could count on and its showed glaringly this week. The euro has been rock steady with this weak sauce/ possible whiff off the NC/SC coast. GFS has been walking it back getting in line with the Euro all week.

Not a whiff for everyone. My local NWS office bringing wintry mix into my forecast so I'm happy with everything right where it is.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ain’t nobody scoring with this as a southern wave lmaooo

 

[Hypsometric]

Obvious now which way this one is going.

 

[packfan98]

6z euro looks like the Canadian with a flat wave nothingburger. Canadian had been adamant there will be no system. Let’s see what happens over the next 48 hours.

 

[rburrel2]

I’m gonna start looking for lakes cutters on the long range gfs to find our next snowstorm. SMH

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Southern stream waves have abused us this year. Treated us like garbage

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Still some uncertainty I wouldn’t lose hope for down east and coastal areas just because your backyard doesn’t have snow doesn’t mean the non-climo areas are out too

 

[Rain Cold]

Still some uncertainty I wouldn’t lose hope for down east and coastal areas just because your backyard doesn’t have snow doesn’t mean the non-climo areas are out too

When is your second guess map coming out? Or your first pre-call map?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

When is your second guess map coming out? Or your first pre-call map?

Hell merry map ?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

When is your second guess map coming out? Or your first pre-call map?

Letting it ride for 2 days because models will likely edge n/w like they always do, for now it’s still limited to areas east of 77 with small chances and slightly greater chances eastern SC north into s/e Virginia.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lmaooooo we close to losing this thing as a whole on the EPS

 

[Hypsometric]

Southern stream waves have abused us this year. Treated us like garbage

All of this. Too strong, too weak, whatever it takes to worsen the outcome for the southeast.

 

[Metwannabe]

Lmaooooo we close to losing this thing as a whole on the EPSView attachment 112377

Yeah there are a bunch more misses than hits that's for sure.