Sometimes marginal set ups just work out ??
It’s nice this storm forms right on the heels of the front moving through to use up all the cold air that’s there
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Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It’s nice this storm forms right on the heels of the front moving through to use up all the cold air that’s there
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Now that’s a more inviting look to the ensembles 
Sheesh tossing the 00z Canadian .. just cause.
Stephenb888
Member
I haven’t seen the Euro posted. It must’ve stunk it up.
It was a bit better than the 12z run, but ultimately a swing and a miss aside from some light ice in far eastern/southeastern NC and SC.
0z GFS took a major leap to my first guess map but I still think it needs to come east a little more and I’m taking a blend of the other guidance. Still hopeful for deep areas of SC north into s/e Virginia.
stephend122080
Member
6z GFS Kuchera:
From RAH:
Saturday and Sunday: Forecast confidence for Saturday night and
Sunday is still on the low side, but gradually increasing. The
southern stream upper level shortwave low to the west will move
through the MS Valley and into TN on Saturday and continue moving
east through the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Sat night and
Sunday before exiting over the Atlantic Sun night. Meanwhile, the
surface high will move east through the Northeast, ridging southward
through the mid-Atlantic. A low will develop off the FL/GA coast
along the front Sat eve/night, lifting northward along the Carolina
coast Sat night/Sun and away from the area Sun night. There should
be enough cold air in place and sufficient moisture with the low.
The track is still uncertain and thus contributing to the overall
forecast uncertainty. At this time, there is still a chance for some
wintry precipitation Sat night/Sunday, but the duration, extent, p-
type and amounts are uncertain. Temperatures will be below normal
with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Saturday and Sunday: Forecast confidence for Saturday night and
Sunday is still on the low side, but gradually increasing. The
southern stream upper level shortwave low to the west will move
through the MS Valley and into TN on Saturday and continue moving
east through the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Sat night and
Sunday before exiting over the Atlantic Sun night. Meanwhile, the
surface high will move east through the Northeast, ridging southward
through the mid-Atlantic. A low will develop off the FL/GA coast
along the front Sat eve/night, lifting northward along the Carolina
coast Sat night/Sun and away from the area Sun night. There should
be enough cold air in place and sufficient moisture with the low.
The track is still uncertain and thus contributing to the overall
forecast uncertainty. At this time, there is still a chance for some
wintry precipitation Sat night/Sunday, but the duration, extent, p-
type and amounts are uncertain. Temperatures will be below normal
with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
I would be getting at least a little excited if I was in the NWS Wilmington zones and NWS Columba SC area
stephend122080
Member
South Carolina has the best timing for wintery wx and the least favorable timing would be near Raleigh NC during the day Sunday. If it speeds up some it could help the NC areas into VA. 6z GFS is still a tick too far west imo maybe it will come east more and more. Bullseye ? areas have been laid tho down east from VA to SC.
06z GFS still flatter and further south, temps marginal too.... a minor event still possible of course but a whiff not out of question either.
stephend122080
Member
Icon making some better adjustments
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stephend122080
Member
06z GEFS has a few good hits
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Wow, I guess this is the year of the SE trends. Usually, you can always count on the NW trend. Not this winter.
Let’s keep in mind… the NW trends have still been there, but they’ve been occurring in the last 48 hours and after several days of SE trends. Honestly though I’m not sure about this set up.. it just looks too marginal to me
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP has dropped any mention of precip or clouds for Sunday. Going with a "mostly sunny" day. Tossing the GFS completely.