Wintry Feb 6-8 2022 Winter Potential

[SD]

Why not

 

[LukeBarrette]

Time to reel in a Roanoke CAD classic…..?

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Two events for the South and Southeast in the next 7 days. Page flipping back and forth...again! CAD for all. Buckle up.

 

[superjames1992]

I’m skiing at Sugar Mtn on February 5th, so this could be…interesting. ⛷

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like to see that ridge behind the trough get stronger, this results in more descent behind the trough and likely a better Sfc high pressure

 

[BullCityWx]

ICON is about 10” of snow here. Nice.

 

[crecre9]

Like to see that ridge behind the trough get stronger, this results in more descent behind the trough and likely a better Sfc high pressure View attachment 111760

That's trending the wrong way for a good storm. Need that trough to be getting sharper and further south and west.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Like to see that ridge behind the trough get stronger, this results in more descent behind the trough and likely a better Sfc high pressure View attachment 111760

Yep. Result is a stronger sfc high this GEFS run in the NE, very impressive for a smoothed ensemble mean, it just looks like the gefs shears the wave and lacks qpf

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That's trending the wrong way for a good storm. Need that trough to be getting sharper and further south and west.

Actually, while that wouldn’t hurt, it’s not really going the wrong way and the trough overall has been bouncing around in strength/sharpness. the ridging behind and negative vorticity advection behind the cold but progressive trough is trending stronger, which results in more descent, and has trending the sfc high to be much stronger in the last couple of gefs runs. Great if your in the Carolinas. You can see on the 48 hour trend that we’re raising heights around/east of GLs and associated sfc high pressure. No bad trends here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC has a N/S trough in Canada that causes LP around the GLs, that’s a issue when N/S is progressive as well

 

[Zander98al]

Bruh I just want some snow, we all know the scenario here though. A big run of snow for everybody and then slow trend to nothing for everybody ?

 

[olhausen]

Oklahoma is gonna get crushed with all kinds of winter weather. Brent’s looking solid.
06Z gfs ens


Edit: I believe I put this in the wrong thread. Mods feel free to move if to the correct one!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is more cmc like and has that second trough move in to southern Canada, it messes with the high pressure atop and creates a GL low

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still not a bad look

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still not a bad look View attachment 111793View attachment 111794

Euro really builds in some strong CAD .. very dry too dews we’re running in the single digits for a lot of people in the CAD regions

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not this again

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Lickwx

 

[whatalife]

 

[Flotown]

View attachment 111802

Geeeeez