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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

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rburrel2 said:
Just looking at soundings and there's still a path to victory for an isothermal nuking in a small area around the southeastern mountains/escarpment even down to foothill elevations.

This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.

I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)

Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
.View attachment 144605
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Don't suck me back in lol. But yeah me and you both I'm definitely interested in what the hi-res has to say. Its going to be a long weekend. Nerve pills and anxiety meds ✓ Cold Beer ✓
 
Maybe it's just me I'm on my cell but it appears to me the system has ticked NW the last two runs on the GFS. I know it will waffle but this is a dynamic system lots of players on the field and the play has to be perfect. Little difference's can translate to big possibilities. Anyway enjoy at least it's something to track.
 
Is there a severe side to this for us back west?
 
NWS RAH discussion:

“There are still some differences in the models wrt the location and
track of the low as it moves through the Southeast US. Even small
difference can have a significant impact on the chances, amounts,
and types of precipitation with this system over central NC. As a
result, confidence remains somewhat low. For now, will keep any/all
precipitation liquid as confidence remains too low to include any
wintry precip. There is even a chance most or all of the area could
remain dry. The best chance for precipitation will be along the
NC/SC border as the low moves through the Southeast Mon/Mon night.”
 
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