UK = bad with both energies
CMC = further south with southern stream, but major improvement in northern stream, so not really a improvement or worsening trend yet, considering we need that up top
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Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System
- Thread starter SD
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CMC = further south with southern stream, but major improvement in northern stream, so not really a improvement or worsening trend yet, considering we need that up top
Don’t wanna be that guy but with trends like this in the shorter range, this storm isn’t dead yet 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
IK its lame and im not the sharpest in here but the 84hr NAM looks alot like the GFS to me with the NE confluence LP just down in TX instead of OKlahoma.....yes ik ik
not that the first trough matters anymore much just goes to show how much this setup can change 
Love seeing those Alaska and PAC Northwest disturbances easing a bit; less strain on the Central US ridge to retrograde eastward and gives our northern stream friend more westward wiggle room down the line if it holds
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like a no-go on the euro. A bit further SE and suppressed this run. (I'll take dry for MBY)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
packfan98
Moderator
EPS follows the op and is shifting precip too far south for winter weather.
I thought both the euro and eps improved moderately. the improvement is like going from zach wilson to ryan tannehill but its something and i think we live to see another cycle
Euro wants to take this little vort over KS on a ride of a lifetime over the next week. It survives the trek over the mountainous omega block, while other global models fizzle most of it over Canada. Not sure how much (if any) this piece affects our overall evolution, but it's interesting to watch it unfold!
Hard not to believe a model that gives us 2 or 3 days of 40 degree rain
That long range NAM tho?
rburrel2
Member
Just looking at soundings and there's still a path to victory for an isothermal nuking in a small area around the southeastern mountains/escarpment even down to foothill elevations.
This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.
I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)
Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
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This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.
I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)
Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
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