Pattern FEB 3-6 2024 System

[Myfrotho704_]

UKMET and Canadian don't look good. Too far south with the low for snow from what I could see. Not sure how H5 looked.

UK = bad with both energies
CMC = further south with southern stream, but major improvement in northern stream, so not really a improvement or worsening trend yet, considering we need that up top

 

[NCSNOW]

12 hits on gefs my area if i counted right.most by far whole time chasing this. Last nights canadian is what we need

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Don’t wanna be that guy but with trends like this in the shorter range, this storm isn’t dead yet

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

View attachment 144589

IK its lame and im not the sharpest in here but the 84hr NAM looks alot like the GFS to me with the NE confluence LP just down in TX instead of OKlahoma.....yes ik ik

 

[Myfrotho704_]

not that the first trough matters anymore much just goes to show how much this setup can change

 

[CaryWx]

Those vertical (longitudinal) northern streams coming over NC need to hold right?

 

[smking7]

not that the first trough matters anymore much just goes to show how much this setup can change View attachment 144592

Love seeing those Alaska and PAC Northwest disturbances easing a bit; less strain on the Central US ridge to retrograde eastward and gives our northern stream friend more westward wiggle room down the line if it holds

 

[NCSNOW]

That NS energy needs to be a hair quicker and more robust

 

[packfan98]

Looks like a no-go on the euro. A bit further SE and suppressed this run. (I'll take dry for MBY)

 

[NCSNOW]

compared to gfs offshore bomb

 

[NCSNOW]

Maybe that vort of energy over GL screws the pooch, want let flow back in an sharpen, get those lines going N/S, neutral

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[packfan98]

EPS follows the op and is shifting precip too far south for winter weather.

 

[ILMRoss]

I thought both the euro and eps improved moderately. the improvement is like going from zach wilson to ryan tannehill but its something and i think we live to see another cycle

 

[smking7]

Euro wants to take this little vort over KS on a ride of a lifetime over the next week. It survives the trek over the mountainous omega block, while other global models fizzle most of it over Canada. Not sure how much (if any) this piece affects our overall evolution, but it's interesting to watch it unfold!

 

[KyloG]

JMA stalls the SLP just off the NC coast for a couple of days providing torrential rains. Makes sense.

 

[Chazwin]

JMA stalls the SLP just off the NC coast for a couple of days providing torrential rains. Makes sense.

View attachment 144599
View attachment 144598

Hard not to believe a model that gives us 2 or 3 days of 40 degree rain

 

[Ethan80963]

That long range NAM tho?

 

[rburrel2]

Just looking at soundings and there's still a path to victory for an isothermal nuking in a small area around the southeastern mountains/escarpment even down to foothill elevations.

This would be late Sunday night/Monday morning and isn't reliant on the phasing/CAA feed that potentially comes later.

I'm curious to see how the hi-res models handle it when they get in range, (assuming the heavy band of precip makes in to this region during that time frame.)

Here's a GFS sounding below from northern greenville county in SC with no elevation valid Monday at 1am. With heavy precip rates they'd be possibly looking at heavy snow.
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