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Feb 26-29 snow showers/clippers

I know this is banter but it's kinda dead in here and all this talk of convective snow. Check out this 15 mile wide band in Kansas where nearly 13 inches fell. How'd you like to be in that..or worse be on either side?
 

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Euro simular to the cmc
sn10_acc.us_se.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeh hrrr BL mixing/warm bias is probably affecting SFC temps to, probably a bit to high, wetbulb during those Convective showers will probably more so be around 38-42 so it will certainly be close
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You should look at what the HRRR has diving into GA... Can't wait for the soundings and maps there. Seems like a massive Convective Snow Shower.
 
This is close even for CLT altho it’s still a bit to warm, but graupel is likely tommorow 7FE63F10-BBAF-41FE-96F6-4D9F9BABAAF0.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Help me understand the DGZ values cause they look off the charts here what does that mean when it shows up like that
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That’s over -1 to -2 omega, likely signaling the development of graupel/snow with pretty good lift, and a solid updraft, sfc is barely supportive of snow tho, but graupel would easily make it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s over -1 to -2 omega, likely signaling the development of graupel/snow with pretty good lift, and a solid updraft, sfc is barely supportive of snow tho, but graupel would easily make it
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Graupel snow mix? Crashing Column? Temps cooler than predicted on models possibly? Surprise 3 inches of snow? ... okay that last one was a wennie one
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Likely rain/graupel with a few showers with the deepest cores mixing with wet flakes
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Agreed. Maybe when I get a chance I’ll pull up a radar loop from Feb 2013, surface temps are several degrees warmer so that will put a damper on snow chances relative to that case but certainly could see some wet flakes here and there
 
Webberweather53 said:
Agreed. Maybe when I get a chance I’ll pull up a radar loop from Feb 2013, surface temps are several degrees warmer so that will put a damper on snow chances relative to that case but certainly could see some wet flakes here and there
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I accumulated in the upper 30’s back then so I know it can happen ?
 
As promised, here's a pair of radar loops from KGSP & KCAE for the Feb 16-17 2013 event for your viewing pleasure. Watch how the upscale growth of the convective showers near Greenville-Spartanburg leads to a mini-MCS and eventually creates a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in Kershaw County that's also producing heavy-very heavy thundersnow. I

It's honestly a snow weenie's wet dream to see an MCV like this loaded w/ snow (instead of rain) hurdling towards you, I seriously hope to have the opportunity to experience at least one of these in my life. modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie


KGSP & KCAE radar loops

 
Webberweather53 said:
As promised, here's a pair of radar loops from KGSP & KCAE for the Feb 16-17 2013 event for your viewing pleasure. Watch how the upscale growth of the convective showers near Greenville-Spartanburg leads to a mini-MCS and eventually creates a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in Kershaw County that's also producing heavy-very heavy thundersnow. I

It's honestly a snow weenie's wet dream to see an MCV like this loaded w/ snow (instead of rain) hurdling towards you, I seriously hope to have the opportunity to experience at least one of these in my life. modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie


KGSP & KCAE radar loops

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What a beast.

???


Feb_16_17_2013_CAE_0z_snow_radar.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
As promised, here's a pair of radar loops from KGSP & KCAE for the Feb 16-17 2013 event for your viewing pleasure. Watch how the upscale growth of the convective showers near Greenville-Spartanburg leads to a mini-MCS and eventually creates a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in Kershaw County that's also producing heavy-very heavy thundersnow. I

It's honestly a snow weenie's wet dream to see an MCV like this loaded w/ snow (instead of rain) hurdling towards you, I seriously hope to have the opportunity to experience at least one of these in my life. modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie


KGSP & KCAE radar loops

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I so wish I had realized what I was seeing that afternoon as it approached my house. I can remember vividly seeing what looked like a white fog moving towards us. Then as it got to us there was a minute or two of a bit of drizzle then the bottom just fell out and it was snowing probably the hardest I had ever seen... huge flakes that covered the ground almost instantly.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m curious to know what meso models were showing a day before..who can dig that info right fast?
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From what I remember they were picking up on it very good the night before. In fact I remember Frank Strait at Accuweather saying that the Charlotte area didn’t need to worry about the snow that we would see in the morning, but the big focus would be what came through late in the afternoon
 
Webberweather53 said:
As promised, here's a pair of radar loops from KGSP & KCAE for the Feb 16-17 2013 event for your viewing pleasure. Watch how the upscale growth of the convective showers near Greenville-Spartanburg leads to a mini-MCS and eventually creates a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in Kershaw County that's also producing heavy-very heavy thundersnow. I

It's honestly a snow weenie's wet dream to see an MCV like this loaded w/ snow (instead of rain) hurdling towards you, I seriously hope to have the opportunity to experience at least one of these in my life. modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie


KGSP & KCAE radar loops

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Where do you think the best chance for seeing convective snow showers are tomorrow? I'm looking at the short range models and I think there could be a chance around here. Am I missing anything in this sounding?
maybehrrr.png
 
I like what the RAP shows, impressive 700mb VV is a peice of the puzzle to our Convection tommorow afternoon
DCD3641A-4CE7-4E6D-8BCD-C8602BA366DE.pngmodels develop convection on the lee side of the NC mountains, but watch for anything to form in SC and move more eastward from its own outflow, that introduces the chance of any sort MCS to develop (very unlikely but not 0), kinda like summertime multicellular convection
 
ForsythSnow said:
Where do you think the best chance for seeing convective snow showers are tomorrow? I'm looking at the short range models and I think there could be a chance around here. Am I missing anything in this sounding?
View attachment 36470
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There's some local sinking in that profile (I presume that's a local anomaly) but the low-mid levels are certainly unstable/moist enough and the melting layer is pretty shallow, or at least just shallow enough that if you had a heavy burst of precip, you could see some graupel &/or snow. I certainly tend to think the best chance for snow/graupel outside the mountains is going to be north of Atlanta in GA thru upstate SC into NC.

DCVA, CAPE, & CIN look more favorable in GA & SC but I think steeper mid-level lapse rates, particularly near the DGZ, might be even more key to generating convective snow showers in NC & upstate SC. Seeing mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km in concert w/ other large-scale forcing(s) for ascent is definitely very conducive to producing convection

1582852086851.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's some local sinking in that profile (I presume that's a local anomaly) but the low-mid levels are certainly unstable/moist enough and the melting layer is pretty shallow, or at least just shallow enough that if you had a heavy burst of precip, you could see some graupel &/or snow. I certainly tend to think the best chance for snow/graupel outside the mountains is going to be north of Atlanta in GA thru upstate SC into NC.

DCVA, CAPE, & CIN look more favorable in GA & SC but I think steeper mid-level lapse rates, particularly near the DGZ, might be even more key to generating convective snow showers in NC & upstate SC. Seeing mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8C/km in concert w/ other large-scale forcing(s) for ascent is definitely very conducive to producing convection

View attachment 36473
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Same plume of Steep mid level lapse rates that produced Convective snow across isolated portions of the country right (KS for example) ?
 
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