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Wintry Feb. 19-20

As of now, I would favor warning criteria snow around 3-6” Statesville-Salisbury-Winston-Greensboro and advisory for Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin- 1.0”. Charlotte-Mooresville-Asheboro-Raleigh could see warning criteria in any of those areas given Fronto-genesis and brief window of 1-2” rates overnight Wednesday regardless of waves of sleet/warm nose. Thursday should feature spillover with mtn snow surviving into the foothills with minimal accumulations and snow showers making it all the way to Raleigh Thursday wouldn’t be ruled out. - 🐦
 
BirdManDoomW said:
As of now, I would favor warning criteria snow around 3-6” Statesville-Salisbury-Winston-Greensboro and advisory for Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin- 1.0”. Charlotte-Mooresville-Asheboro-Raleigh could see warning criteria in any of those areas given Fronto-genesis and brief window of 1-2” rates overnight Wednesday regardless of waves of sleet/warm nose. Thursday should feature spillover with mtn snow surviving into the foothills with minimal accumulations and snow showers making it all the way to Raleigh Thursday wouldn’t be ruled out. - 🐦
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This is a good post honestly
 
KyloG said:
Wow…holy crap
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Just goes to show how volatile this setup is, wouldn't take much to bring back some of those 2' totals, the ICON is dropping well over 1mb/hr before it reaches HAT. Right now RIC - RDU - ECG - ORF, somewhere in that area looks the place to be.
 
SD said:
It's the northern stream causing the issue. The southern stream left alone would be a widespread high end winter storm just like the January system would have if it was left alone
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Bumping this to show that you don't have to have a phase around here to get a great storm
 
1300m said:
This could go bigger....this trend is showing up in Euro too.
View attachment 169860View attachment 169861
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Really not far off from something bigger just with those small ticks at H5. And still lots of time. A couple more trends with that energy like that -and along/east of 77 will start to see jumps from that, and bigger totals for the favored areas
 
SD said:
One more of these and we are going to start seeing some mid teen totals printing outView attachment 169863
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For folks further back that are struggling this is needed to see anything more substantial then a minor event, so this should be the hope for a bigger solution vs losing the confluence and phasing for amperage
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really not far off from something bigger just with those small ticks at H5. And still lots of time. A couple more trends with that energy like that -and along/east of 77 will start to see jumps from that, and bigger totals for the favored areas
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Fine tuning of this southern wave will be something to watch most definitely. Stronger sfc low center . Much more qpf.. common things to see in the near term trends.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For folks further back that are struggling this is needed to see anything more substantial then a minor event, so this should be the hope for a bigger solution vs losing the confluence and phasing for amperage
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The icon really seemed to sharpen up the southern vort more than previous runs, and seemed to back it up west some. Could that trend not continue to back west and theoretically get more qpf west?
 
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