Wintry Feb. 19-20

[D-Ray]

Flurries.....

 

[1300m]

FV3...let's see how this verifies. It's been ticking the snow line south. This did well for the early Jan event at the snow/sleet line.

View attachment 170732View attachment 170733

At least from a temps perspective, this guidance is at least initializing a little better than the HRRR. As others have stated, the HRRR is really embarrassing itself right now - it can't even initialize surface temps correctly.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Flurries officially here in Cary, hours ahead of when I expected

 

[BullCityWx]

BUFKIT is showing some really high ratios tomorrow - anywhere from 17:1 to 25:1.

 

[jackendrickwx]

3 straight events with well before modeled precip onset

 

[KyloG]

THis has really blossomed the past 30 mins

 

[superjames1992]

12z ICON (not including the ULL tomorrow):

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Im obviously not the most knowledgeable dude in here.... but I think if you look at pressure charts and where the fronto bands are your band will look like this, headed into this afternoon. Yes the red is the Sharp Cutoff imo. A very tight line from say East CLT up to East GSO and on up into RIC (Eastern sections favored) if youre East of those , congrats ... were pulling for ya!

 

[Brandon10]

Unless I am reading the map incorrectly, mesoscale analysis makes me think the low is developing a tad further to the south than what was forecast. Meaning to get as close as some of the models have been showing to the outer banks, it would need to track more NNE than Northeast. Aka may effect the angle of warm nose. Just something I think to watch.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Moderate sleet now in Kenly with a few flakes mixed in


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Definitely precip rate driven at the moment


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[1300m]

3 straight events with well before modeled precip onset

Upper divergence already doing work.

 

[SD]

Dropping half dollars

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Flurries on the north end of town between the beltline/540.

Also, the birds are very active.

 

[WxBlue]

Flurries here in Wendell.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Ok I’m certainly looking thru snow colored goggles but this stuff blossoming over Fayetteville seems 1) well ahead of schedule 2) heavier than forecast

 

[ragtop50]

Sleet/Snow mix here just north of Fayetteville. This band is getting going good now

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Ok I’m certainly looking thru snow colored goggles but this stuff blossoming over Fayetteville seems 1) well ahead of schedule 2) heavier than forecast

It started here in Kenly at 9:30 this morning, about 1.5 hours ahead of schedule based on the HRRR


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[ragtop50]

Ok I’m certainly looking thru snow colored goggles but this stuff blossoming over Fayetteville seems 1) well ahead of schedule 2) heavier than forecast

I can confirm it is producing at the ground !

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Soooo

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Definitely see where the rain snow line is on the radar depiction.

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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Soooo View attachment 170742

Wow, looks much better than earlier runs


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[Shadow of the Apps]

snow flurries starting in Rutherfordton, NC

 

[LickWx]

Wow, looks much better than earlier runs


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Mixing line is well south of forecast as well, woh, looks like all of wake county will not mix

 

[jackendrickwx]

Soooo View attachment 170742

It’s gameday. We hug

 

[ragtop50]

I swear I believe have all three at once...Snow/Sleet/Rain. I am right on that line.

If this band is all snow when it gets north of me, look out, it is heavy!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Soooo View attachment 170742

Why this model is even funded is beyond me

 

[Downeastnc]

Unless I am reading the map incorrectly, mesoscale analysis makes me think the low is developing a tad further to the south than what was forecast. Meaning to get as close as some of the models have been showing to the outer banks, it would need to track more NNE than Northeast. Aka may effect the angle of warm nose. Just something I think to watch.

Yeah it wouldn't take much to turn this from a sleetfest to a decent snow hit...it's probably wishful thinking since it never bust in our favor

 

[astroworld123]

Light snow here in south Raleigh near NCSU


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[Cary_Snow95]

Like LOL

 

[SD]

Sticking already

 

[SimeonNC]

If we can get this fronto to go a bit more westward, CLT will be in the money.

 

[superjames1992]

Mixing line is well south of forecast as well, woh, looks like all of wake county will not mix

Never say never.

 

[Bready86]

Light dusting on the grill cover

 

[superjames1992]

Starting to wonder what the point of the HRRR is.

 

[SWVAWX]

Depending on what the ULL does I should make 1 to 2 inches. We shall see.

 

[Spurs up]

42/30 . goodluck to my NC peeps!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The cells from Fayetteville are taking direct aim at Wake

 

[SimeonNC]

Also look how the axis of the precipitable water is setting up.

 

[Brandon10]

Yeah it wouldn't take much to turn this from a sleetfest to a decent snow hit...it's probably wishful thinking since it never bust in our favor

Imo latest FV3 and HRRR are moving snow line slightly south