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Wintry Feb. 19-20

The models are underdoing precip.....that's the hill I am willing to die on for this storm lol. And here's why.
PW probability maps from the SPC. The latest HREF has greater than 90% chance of PW's exceeding 0.5" all the way up to the Kentucky and Virginia borders, and that's even with Gulf coast convection. Moisture is fine, plenty to go around. That doesn't solve for questions on temps or precip types, (that's somebody else's hill lol) but getting confident the board sees more precip than what is modeled.
Also like how this tongue of 0.5-0.8 PW pivots around and then tightens up over NC, thing of beauty. Somebody in NC is getting crushed.

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Cyclogent, you nailed it man! Good job with your prediction yesterday! I'll be sure to pay more attn to those HREF flows in the future!
 
Anyone in Huntsville Al. right now that can report if its snowing right now? Radar shows a pretty good green back line (right now) before precip ends.
 
RAP gets .25” precip back to Wake…that seems aggressive but maybe.

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.5 knocking on my doorstep. I still think bust potential is high with this one and on the high side. Maybe wishcasting but developing coastals are impossible to pinpoint and you'd think it will be close enough to the coast to get moisture fairly far NW
 
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10z HRRR


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It's probably going to be too warm in the last 1,000 feet around the ATL area, but they look like they are gonna get in on the next precip maxima... Wouldn't be shocked if higher elevation places just north and west of atlanta mix with snow under the heaviest incoming returns.
 
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