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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Half inch already in Richmond??

Like 4 hours ahead of schedule
Didn't see that coming, dang! This system has higher bust potential than normal, don't envy anyone having to put out an official forecast.
 
Latest HRRR seems reasonable and lining up with how things look now on the radar. A solid dusting to an inch in Raleigh looks promising.


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Well I'm back, was down at the beach with my wife helping her with work. Kind of glad I was off grid all yesterday (haha). But lets see if we can nowcast this thing to some good totals. Air temp looks good. I'm at 28 and there are lots of near to below freezing temps across central NC.

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returns from the west are heading east, and the returns to the south are moving north (and building rapidly). Interested/hopeful to see if this can build westward into the Triangle.
 
Watch it snow more at BF, then anywhere in the triad. LOL, waiting for it. He should be up, sipping coffee and reporting in here soon.

CAA is well underway and headed to everyone off to my SE , way. You can really feel it out there this morning rolling in.

And 3 cheers to the latest Sref. If it verifies, I'll be doing cartwheels in 4 inches of snow.
 
33/28 (dewpoint starting to fall) NE wind 9 mph gusting to 15 here in SW Wilson county


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32 over 30 and falling at PGV...nice stiff north wind bringing that steady cold supply in. Cloud deck is high but solid so it will prevent to much warming. Not sure what we gonna get today, QPF mean around here is pushing 1" and almost all will fall at or below freezing.
 
I couldn't find a single model with less than 4" (using Kuchera) for mby, except the NBM based off the overnight model data, so I'm feeling confident in at least 2-4". Local tv met just said some models showing 10" so higher totals not out of the question, have no idea what she saw to say that
 
Lol not that it matters but the ukie just had one of it's best runs yet. Who knows what's gonna happen today but something tells me this coastal has a trick or 2 up it's sleeve.
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6z ICON also got better. Looks like it upped snow totals about an inch in the Triad/Triangle and consolidated that finger of precip down into Charlottle):

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I think we’re gonna get the qpf at my house but sadly I think it’s going to be rain.. Boundary layer looks a little too warm here. Snow should reach the ground just to my east from Pickens to Greenville though
Hot as balls...wer wudge?
Figures it will over perform with qpf but we never get the cold...RC RULE #! COLD SOURCE
 
Ok The Weather Channel has Raleigh at 31 and NWS RAH has us at 33 so which is correct?

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Ok The Weather Channel has Raleigh at 31 and NWS RAH has us at 33 so which is correct?

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the entire triangle area could be in the twenties and NWS Raleigh will be like “it’s 45 out” - they refuse to acknowledge their sensor location always reading high
 
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