Belle Lechat
Member
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2021
- Messages
- 1,325
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everybody chill out
I’ll say it looks like the gulf convection was not modeled but that doesn’t necessarily put a stake in things. Could also make an argument stretching that low level vorticity helps deepened the trough. I don’t think it’s an “issue” unless these cells coalesce into an MCS
I’ll say it looks like the gulf convection was not modeled but that doesn’t necessarily put a stake in things. Could also make an argument stretching that low level vorticity helps deepened the trough. I don’t think it’s an “issue” unless these cells coalesce into an MCS
This is why you never close schools in Wilkes and Surry until you see it on radar within so many counties. Should have said 2hr delay option to close. Hell 0” why can’t the bus run?????? Meanagers will be called first thing in the morning town hall
WxBlue
Meteorologist
+1 this. A bit too much freaking out right now.
Not that it prob matters much but the hrrr is shifting that slug of moisture north more then last couple of runs and this run back west
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Most of the CAMs show a big fat MCS going across the gulf and gulf coast.
Not good
Not good
it got to make up it mind he printing the contest totals at 11pm and I can’t keep making changes every 5min
rburrel2
Member
South ATL area just went from .02 liquid to .20 liquid on the Hrrr from one run to the next.
RGEM did well in the early Dec event and typically does well with the NW flow setups into the piedmont
ok nvm you have permission to panic
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m watching this storm unfold from 2,000 miles away and I hate it for most everyone involved. Absolute pain to forecast.
Synoptically super fickle then we get inside the short range and at the last possible minute we get this sudden shift on high res guidance likely because they’re initializing the convection better over the gulf. Ugh
Synoptically super fickle then we get inside the short range and at the last possible minute we get this sudden shift on high res guidance likely because they’re initializing the convection better over the gulf. Ugh
Hrrr makes it up to 40 in CLT tommorow. Run with increased QPF and it’s to warm, Torch
Brent
Member
Lol im still struggling with the fact it snowed for 11 hours and we couldn't even manage 3 inches
We have the general dynamics for snow in the southeast with moisture on approach. 80% of this board is expecting nothing. There’s not a lot of ways to lose here.
Snow will be within a short driving distance if you’re not happy with what you get.
Snow will be within a short driving distance if you’re not happy with what you get.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
FWIW …. I’m down to 34 now under starry skies. My freakout earlier was not warranted
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
mx3gsr92
Member
I’m watching this storm unfold from 2,000 miles away and I hate it for most everyone involved. Absolute pain to forecast.
Synoptically super fickle then we get inside the short range and at the last possible minute we get this sudden shift on high res guidance likely because they’re initializing the convection better over the gulf. Ugh
Is this bad for NE NC Mr. Webber?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This MCS that’s rolling across the gulf tonight would probably classify as a derecho if we were observing it over land.
Sctvman
Member
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It is potentially bad for everyone. Sometimes, Gulf's MCS events can rob the moisture from flowing up the Southeast.
Hrrr is a torch 
rburrel2
Member
I'm so happy for those guys. They deserve more.
Triplephase93
Member
Temp dropped to 35 here and has gone up to 40. Quickly losing hope for the Chatt area to eke out an inch.
broken025
Member
We probably should just assume the model with the least snow is correct going forward.
olhausen
Member
Very light snow for last hour and now it’s really coming down the last 5 minutes or so.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
If it gives you hope our wetbulb has been plummeting here in N GA. Now at 33.
I'm starting to wonder now if you are the NWS RAH do you start to have conversations about changing some counties from a WSW to a WWA? Based on these trends or do u keep it and see what happens
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WxBlue
Meteorologist
GFS slashed totals a bit, but not as bad as the NAM did.
Mahomeless
Member
NW AL may get more snow than 95% of NC at this rate!
NCSNOW
Member
Gfs dumps solid 3+ back this way ounty wide. Ditto for fv3.
Might not be picking up well on gulf action happening
blueheronNC
Member
With the Gulf Coastal MCS robbing moisture transport northward, it seems like any parts of NC to get significant precip. are going to have to rely on the NE fetch off the Atlantic from the developing coastal. That won't be non-existent, but it's going to greatly cap amounts anywhere west of I-95.
Temps go above freezing for the foothills after snow between 8am and lunch. What little falls melts then a secondary shadow forms Thursday morning with snow developing east of Statesville. Flks call the law
WolfpackHomer91
Member
astroworld123
Member
They also closed all UNC Rex clinics for tomorrow, I’d much rather be at work than sitting at home refreshing models every hour
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broken025
Member
I’m all in on school closures. Looking forward to sleeping in until 8 instead 6 tomorrow. Let’s go!
lcpdk
Member
Obs on the west side of Kernersville NC (Eastern Forsyth County, appx 10 mi SE of INT) 35 degrees (dropping well), Humidity 54% (rising), DP 20 (dropping). Skies clear after some clouds earlier.
If we end up getting barely anything at all tomorrow probably regular time Thursday
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