12km NAM is almost a half inch QPF here and 03km is a tenth. Crazy difference and the 03km NAM is a catastrophe. Figure it’s got to be wrong but whatever it takes to get it to not snow here is often right.
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iGRXY
Member
CAMs are pretty much sticking a fork into this thing for about 80% of us. Even NE Nc doesn’t look anywhere near as good as they have been the last couple of days.
Mpirone12
Member
Call me crazy but I’ve lost faith in the models with this storm. I have no emotion to these swings now. I wouldn’t be surprised either way with how tomorrow goes…
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Man that band Thursday morning means business on the 3k NAM
It’s going to snow. Put the models down and use your brain. Going to be several posters overperform tomorrow
I might have to up totals in a few places tbh
I might have to up totals in a few places tbh
Bet you it jumps most of the foothills.
Sticking with my first call. Firm. This is through Thursday. I should add more winter mix to SE NC but I won’t bc I’m lazy. Enjoy your snow everybody
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I am rooting for your forecast, but it is not looking good at the moment.
Looks like supercells
A splash of hope never hurt anybody
TigerSnow
Member
Defintely not good for a lot of us in NC.
A lot of warning shots being fired from models for a lot of NC, sad to see. Hopefully you guys out east can still reel one in! Rooting for you!
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I would like to know what is causing the resistance to make it look that way.....you animate it and really does look like 4 separate fires.
Bigedd09
Member
Bad. And the LONG RANGE HRRR was ALL over
This would be quite the rug pull if the latest nam3 gets QPF right
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Those hurricane hunters that flew in were not gathering data ..... they were cloud seeding.
Apparently they forgot to tell the NAM
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
it might be but I've never seen them line up quite like this?
LOL this storm has gone from the Mid-Atlantic preparing for their first KU storm in ages to making central North Carolina look like Death Valley
blueheronNC
Member
00z ICON coming in dry as a bone too. Wow.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Fv3 high res and arw2 probably did the best with them but they were both north vs reality
Classic Carolina Split unfolding.
Bigedd09
Member
We suck…and we suck bad.
Triplephase93
Member
It was probably one of the models that everyone kept “tossing”
No it had a big MCS in the GOA, not supercells per say
No that was literally 12 hours from now that the HRRR has been showing that. As far as I’ve seen no models have had this flare of supercells this evening
iGRXY
Member
Not to be a Debbie downer but supercells running west to east is probably the biggest “you’re about to get screwed” sign you can find in real time if you’re in the Carolinas and Georgia.
Good lord at @everyone slashing their contest totals in the other thread. I reduced to 1-2” Greensboro and Raleigh and 5” Elizabeth and Norfolk
rburrel2
Member
Lee-side snow on the Rgem.
NCSNOW
Member
Tall tale sign is my skies are clear as a bell outside. Great for raditional cooling.
But I Bet we will just be seeing milky skies at sunrise tomorrow. If we aint seeing low ceilings,then best to just move on and go wash the salt off your truck/car.
But I Bet we will just be seeing milky skies at sunrise tomorrow. If we aint seeing low ceilings,then best to just move on and go wash the salt off your truck/car.
You’re not wrong. Thunderstorms oriented wrong in the Gulf have been showing on models all day. Now they developing about 6 hours earlier than forecast