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Add -- to the mix of Mets saying CLT not only barely gets anything…. But now, Stays above 32 the durationman, what a wild wild 72hrs it’s been
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Like I said last week: late arriving cold
Brent
Member
Shockingly enough were still underperforming here considering the hype
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's impressive, but it's still only about an inch of snow.
I've been curious with North Georgia, but considering the consistency here, the places that outperform will be at elevation. Not really seeing much that would say more.
SimeonNC
Member
I say it's a good precaution, the bulk of the snow will fall during the school day and I'm guessing they don't want an Atlanta 2014 situation
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Wow, I didn't think roads would be bad until after dark ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Had just enough time to make a call map for this storm.
For a weak Miller A type winter storm in the southeast, this is an odd look here on the GFS with the surface low tracking in a southeasterly direction from SE Louisiana to Tampa Bay, before the coastal low gets going off the GA coast. This is seen on most other modeling as well. The upper levels (500mb) don't support this kind of evolution, but it looks like this is a case where the surface features are bullying the upper levels. That is, the Arctic high is bullying the surface low in the gulf, while in the upper levels, the southern stream wave below the closed low over the upper midwest is weak, and is trekking west to east. But as the low in the gulf dies off, the low off GA near the gulf stream kicks into gear and moves NE.
So, the weakness in precip in GA and western Carolinas could be partially associated with this surface low evolution along with some convection robbing kicking up in the gulf as others have mentioned. The 850mb low is weak and baggy as well (not shown).
Among the models, the Euro seems to be the most resistant to this SE track of the Gulf surface low to Tampa, instead tracking the low across N Florida
So, the weakness in precip in GA and western Carolinas could be partially associated with this surface low evolution along with some convection robbing kicking up in the gulf as others have mentioned. The 850mb low is weak and baggy as well (not shown).
Among the models, the Euro seems to be the most resistant to this SE track of the Gulf surface low to Tampa, instead tracking the low across N Florida
I think northern Alabama and NW Ga. have better odds of meaningful snowfall than NE Ga outside of elevation. The CAD is weak and in-situ, unlike west of the Apps where LL cold air is moving in faster there.
SimeonNC
Member
I genuinely wonder if we'll end up seeing snow squall warnings Thursday morning lol.
Had a lot of requests for my SC friends. Purple) All border counties to NC will see a wintry mix of sleet/zr drizzle at some point. Better chance of snow west in the upstate due to better timing but even there just a dusting in places to 1” in the mountains. Further east better sleet and ZR north of Myrtle Beach SC. Myrtle mostly rain but some sleet possible. Orange) snow clipper chance further south for Columbia and a lot of SC northward could see a dusting in spots. 
rburrel2
Member
I think this is true except for the Toccoa to I-85 area along the SC border because they're getting the benefit of that 925mb jet delivering low level cold air. Though it's a race between that and the precip moving out for them.
Avalanche
Member
Oh snap dude this is so funny
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a very complicated storm and that call map probably took me longer to make than just about any other I’ve ever done. Wouldn’t be shocked if it busts
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
South Carolina looks different than what I remember lol.
mx3gsr92
Member
What about Moyock?
interestedclimatist
Member
It’s solid but I think some areas will over perform and some will bust
Jessy89
Member
My last call
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weather bubba
Member
These are some healthy QPF totals for northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. It's easy to see why those areas will pick up more than six inches of snow. The rest of the map looks pretty anemic in comparison although the eastern sections of NC will have plenty of precipitation to work with. The only problem will be temperatures. If RDU gets .6 QPF I get the feeling that most of that will be sleet from Highway 64 south.
weather bubba
Member
The GFS did in the previous post. Let's hope the Euro is running dry.All these models refuse to push the .5” precip line into Wake. It’s like a brick wall.
18z Euro
View attachment 170524
Same for me. Spent way too much time on it, knowing it's an impossible forecast. Then to top it off after spending all of that time and effort, had someone respond to me calling me a MAGA cultist for saying "Gulf of America" in my forecast discussion. I am over today.
It’s ok man I was actually first on this board to call it that just gonna push through the mods and public and do what is right
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Challenge: Try to forecast what happens in Upstate SC & North GA.
I am a little more optimistic for less sleet around the RDU area. All models, including the NAM, are showing more mixing early on, then forming more banding, which should change over more to snow as the low moves east. You can also see more SW to NE orientation of the bands on todays models compared to last night. Of course, I could be wearing my snow colored glasses, but bias can also go too far the other way, based on past history (which I completely understand)
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
It's a forecasting challenge for sure. Watching closely to see how much the front can erode the warm nose. The next 2-5 hours is crucial for everyone in these areas.
One of the more easier places actually. Virga then wintry mix most places under an inch and less than .1 ice. Really 1-2 counties between both states “might” cross over an inch.
*pretends to be shocked* HRRR is slowly starting to fill in 
interestedclimatist
Member
It’s almost like it’s a bandwagon model
SnowNiner
Member
Add -- to the mix of Mets saying CLT not only barely gets anything…. But now, Stays above 32 the duration
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Yeah I actually agree with him. This is pretty much a non-event for the CLT area, other than some light accumulation on grassy surfaces. I'm pretty sure roads will be clear with only light snow falling.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I swear I’m not trying to be this guy…. But Fro talk me off the ledge, dude it’s 49 degrees still. Somethings not right . If we had 1” QPF coming I’d care less , but with ar next .3” whewww we cannot waste a millimeter of it
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Cary_Snow95
Member
43.2 here in Cary
For those chasing. Here’s my take. Greensboro NC to Virginia Beach VA if you could draw a line between those two cities and stay north of it then you should be golden. Sorry Raleigh still a major storm for you but too much sleet and ZR will keep limit your snow to 1-3” imo with totals quickly going up northern Wake County into Virginia.
Honestly still thinking areas NE of CLT could pull an inch or 2. But that Thursday morning stuff is gonna be far more efficient
42 now
Your DP is 21. Breathe. You going down to 17 this week actual temps if not lower due to snow cover.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
weather bubba
Member
For what it is worth, The Weather Channel is bullish with their forecast predicting 3" to 5" for most of Wake County and a foot for northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia. I get the feeling they are going with the GFS which shows the most snow of any of the models I have looked at.