Well yeah when you put it that way
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Well yeah when you put it that way
18z GFS is looking pretty similar to last run so far.
Well they got it covered I guess, can't recall ever seeing those types of ranges
2-8 inches in Williamston is a crazy range
Pops
Member
I realistically expect round an inch here and I’ll tell you I’ll take it. No complaints!!
interestedclimatist
Member
I think this is the hardest storm to forecast this season just because of the QPF and mixing line. I feel like the moisture will be fine but then I have a side of me that knows it can get cut off
This pretty much says "We know it's gonna snow/sleet but amounts good luck it depends on many factors"
The GFS remains consistent with the 18z run. I guess you could say it cuts totals slightly far west so maybe it's folding, but it's noise. All hail the King!
Seems like it introduces mixing issues towards Moyock, though.
Seems like it introduces mixing issues towards Moyock, though.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
It's safe to say this event is a lost cause for a majority of Upstate SC and North Georgia. At least with the front part... OBS just looks horrible and it continues to look worse. NW flow may bring some brief light snow showers to Upstate SC, possibly to the coastline.. But what a horrible downtrend today.
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Love that train that sets up connecting the ULL and the main event on the 3k. Very light but gives RDU 24 hours of straight frozen
interestedclimatist
Member
This is so wild to me…1-6 and 2-8 is brutal….and just say 0-4 atp
packfan98
Moderator
GFS is pretty steady. You can find some positives and negatives with the new 18z.
interestedclimatist
Member
Head up, March 3-5 gfs and cmc have a new system moving in
mx3gsr92
Member
The GFS remains consistent with the 18z run. I guess you could say it cuts totals slightly far west so maybe it's folding, but it's noise. All hail the King!
Seems like it introduces mixing issues towards Moyock, though.
Ain't nobody sweating the thermals on a global, with no additional support, 24 hours out. Tomorrow, we ride baby!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Quite frankly thats our money maker back here in Foothills - 77 Corridor prob GSO too
Is that bad or good? It's always done solidly with precip but does run a little cold.
interestedclimatist
Member
I say we give the RGEM another run bc that was a bad one. Then we can see if we like it or not
interestedclimatist
Member
GFS, EURO, NAM, and CMC are all pretty much agreement atp. They all put the sleet line right below wake (I know RDU might have some mixing issues but it looks like it will be more snow based on the latest runs and cold onsets) the precip field shouldn’t be that much of a concern either atm
The spreads are too large. Also, different NWS offices must have different criteria for Winter Storm Warnings.
Probably doesn't matter, but the 18z GEFS mean QPF ticked another county or so west with the precip contours compared to the 12z run. The 0.4-0.5" contour was in far eastern Wake County at hr 33/39 at 12z and now is in far eastern Durham County at 18z.
BackThePack
Member
Personally think that rule number 1 for NC snowstorms is being undervalued here.
“there will always temp issues”
I don’t buy this 2+ inch scenario for Greater Wake county. Sleet will destroy dreams. There is a bit of confirmation bias and searching for the best model. In reality, the system is built on balsa wood for the Triangle. One input of the equation will collapse the fairytale.
“there will always temp issues”
I don’t buy this 2+ inch scenario for Greater Wake county. Sleet will destroy dreams. There is a bit of confirmation bias and searching for the best model. In reality, the system is built on balsa wood for the Triangle. One input of the equation will collapse the fairytale.
Looks like a Hampton Roads jackpot again.The GFS remains consistent with the 18z run. I guess you could say it cuts totals slightly far west so maybe it's folding, but it's noise. All hail the King!
Seems like it introduces mixing issues towards Moyock, though.
View attachment 170495
Brent
Member
Yes out here it's 4 inches
And we still have a 4-10 inch range right now over halfway through the storm
This is a great storm for you guys. Temps are nice.Yes out here it's 4 inches
And we still have a 4-10 inch range right now over halfway through the storm
norcarolinian
Member
the 1.8 million people in metro GSO wish that CLT and RDU get snow… but … this time tomorrow I’ll be interested in that backside band
I refuse to let the HRRR suck me in for North Georgia
Mpirone12
Member
Here we are in 2025 and have models ranging from 1-6 inches less than 12 hours out while we can predict an asteroid hitting earth in 2032. What a time to be alive
Brent
Member
We had models saying 8-12 last night here and we're gonna be very lucky if we get 4
BackThePack
Member
We will crack room temp semi conductors before we crack warm noses.
what kind of bust was it- wet, dry, too far north, south, etc, may help us
Heavy banding setup north. Looks like Wichita is going to bust high
Brent
Member
Dry air I'm assuming and north of us was always favored. We never seem to do overly well when it's this cold and that was always on my mind
Also there was always a very sharp cutoff nearby. Like Southwest of here is even worse off
HRRR with a nice increase for Northern Alabama and North Georgia through the end of the run. Amounts around an inch
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Don't let it trick you.. I'm being very pessimistic about this event for both of our areas. I just don't like the current OBS and the current WAA. However, the front does appear to be trending to enter the area quicker, which can technically help but I wouldn't count on it. It's a threading the needle type situation. But I personally think it'll be a near miss for North GA and probably most of the Upstate of SC.
Hrrr finally starting to see what moisture looks like east of the mountains 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Add -- to the mix of Mets saying CLT not only barely gets anything…. But now, Stays above 32 the duration
man, what a wild wild 72hrs it’s beenSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wulfer
Member
I just got nuked if that happens!