Wintry Feb 11-13 2021 Ice Potential

[Avalanche]

Here’s the FRAM View attachment 74282

That's not a bad amount of ice. We've seen worse, but all it takes is enough.

 

[kstrickland0823]

Currently 32 degrees here in NW Chatham with drizzle. No accrual yet.

34/34 in SW Chatham! No drizzle atm! But never made it to the predicted high of 38. Was 36 for about an hr then started dropping again.


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[SD]

C. Springs is in southern Harnett right?

That is correct

 

[SD]

Excuse me? Who invited you?? ?

Point taken haha

 

[Avalanche]

That is correct

Temps are pretty similar elsewhere. Not much differential.

 

[Metwannabe]

34/34 in SW Chatham! No drizzle atm! But never made it to the predicted high of 38. Was 36 for about an hr then started dropping again.


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Yeah I would lean towards the HRRR actually winning out with this one, seeing how it's the closest to current observations atm.... with good NE winds blowing hard to bet against a decent CAD airmass.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

31 and freezing fog currently. Think I was supposed to be mid 30s by now. Ice incoming.

 

[Avalanche]

Just noticed that little dot of higher totals at Brick's house. Optimism wins.

 

[Avalanche]

31 and freezing fog currently. Think I was supposed to be mid 30s by now. Ice incoming.

Do the valley areas around south of Lenoir and Old Fort do better with ice accrual/temps?

 

[SD]

I like these dews up toward DC and RIC, not sure if they have enough of a push to get here.

 

[NCSNOW]

Is that QPF or FRAM? With temperatures so marginal, I would expect much of the raw QPF to not accrete, especially if it’s moderate/heavy rates.

The ice is still on thelimbs , everything here from this morning near PTI.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Do the valley areas around south of Lenoir and Old Fort do better with ice accrual/temps?

Old fort and the Bat cave area usually do very well with ice accrual. Not as familiar with the Lenoir area. Here where I am, I’m about 2 miles from the Blue Ridge Parkway at 3,000 feet on east facing slope so it accrues here very well.

 

[FallsLake]

That's not a bad amount of ice. We've seen worse, but all it takes is enough.

I would like it to get right to or just over .25". Then RAH will have to issue Winter Storm Warnings. **I know weenie...

 

[Avalanche]

View attachment 74283

I like these dews up toward DC and RIC, not sure if they have enough of a push to get here.

View attachment 74284

Question is, with nominal temps up NE of here, does the CAA help much? Wonder what our breaking point is with cold/dews before the eventual warming.

 

[Avalanche]

I would like it to get right to or just over .25". Then RAH will have to issue Winter Storm Warnings. **I know weenie...

Trust me, I wanna hear those words just once before Im popping tops on beer at the beach.

 

[Bannerdude]

18z HRRR reversed the colder trend on CAD. Noticeable drop in frozen QPF.

 

[Avalanche]

18z HRRR reversed the colder trend on CAD. Noticeable drop in frozen QPF.

Models have been more up and down than my Heels this year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr was warmer yep, looks like it was a tad to cool this hour from the run a hour ago

 

[Metwannabe]

Models have been more up and down than my Heels this year.

Still verbatim the HRRR would have warning criteria northern and NW Piedmont

 

[NCSNOW]

Latest: Grab the Milk/Bread and fill up bath tub tonight if you on well water.