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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
I believe it was the 2017, wasn’t that the one Brick likes to remind us about? Maybe it was the 2018.


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Haha oh how in the world could I forget that?! I feel like a dummy now!
 
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Lights out!


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At least the start of December looks seasonable. Nothing extreme, we're not going to be setting any record highs or anything. We're not going to have wall to wall cold like 2010 but this is much more typical of a December than we had in the torchy Decembers of 2011, 2012 and 2015.

I'd say it's certainly a strong possibility December finishes slightly AN, but it should be cooler than most Decembers since 2011. There isn't going to be a widespread early December winter storm for the Southeast this year, but that doesn't mean we won't have opportunities later in the winter. Most of the big dogs don't even occur in December.
 
Giving this high strength/placement a 90% chance of verifying..100% chance of being scoured out just as precip arrives ? EE403B74-1294-482D-9734-6C5630D59BAD.png
 
When’s snowmageddon hitting? Weatherbug says no!86B93C0F-48C7-4B70-B5A8-F5EE5093F9B0.png
 
During the winter, both Accuweather and TWC seem to like to show days in the long range with a high around 45-50 with "snow showers in the morning." However you almost never see them predict a legit winter storm in the long range.
 
Kirk Mellish isn’t impressed yet so I won’t be, even thought he is l bad at predicting total amount he is really good at sniffing out storms before others.


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Tarheel1 said:
Speaking of trains, Choo choo, all aboard the hype train! Next stop, State college PA. See Roberts post on FB! Can’t get it on here
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Here's the text:




WxSouth
3 hrs ·
That tendency for western North American ridging keeps on showing up, so this ups the ante for a Major Arctic Outbreak soon for atleast part of the central and eastern USA. Not sure yet how much of the severe cold makes it this far south--its complicated, and there's major conflicts with some things we look at. All in all, very interesting though, and flies in the face of most forecasts that were going very warm in the lower 48 states , precisely at this time frame. I'm talking about the timeframe of about 7 to 14 days out. The big picture from European and GFS models (Canadian too), all have that tall ridge, meaning cold air dumps straight south toward the US, eradicating any warm Southeast ridging any time soon. Also, the jetstream looks active, with moisture galore wanting to come east toward the Cold air.
Image: European Model 240 hour surface pressure pattern
 
Robert West said:
It's quiet as a mouse over there in the December thread. Was hoping to get an interesting GFS run to fire everyone up again. Lol 384 heading for glory though. haha
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At this point, I just want to see a consistently favorable pattern for cold lock in. In the meantime, if we can get all riled up about a few fantasy storms, that's just gravy! I always like to see good LR deep south snowstorms. It means we are at least in the game.
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's the text:




WxSouth
3 hrs ·
That tendency for western North American ridging keeps on showing up, so this ups the ante for a Major Arctic Outbreak soon for atleast part of the central and eastern USA. Not sure yet how much of the severe cold makes it this far south--its complicated, and there's major conflicts with some things we look at. All in all, very interesting though, and flies in the face of most forecasts that were going very warm in the lower 48 states , precisely at this time frame. I'm talking about the timeframe of about 7 to 14 days out. The big picture from European and GFS models (Canadian too), all have that tall ridge, meaning cold air dumps straight south toward the US, eradicating any warm Southeast ridging any time soon. Also, the jetstream looks active, with moisture galore wanting to come east toward the Cold air.
Image: European Model 240 hour surface pressure pattern
Click to expand...
I need pictures!
 
Rain Cold said:
At this point, I just want to see a consistently favorable pattern for cold lock in. In the meantime, if we can get all riled up about a few fantasy storms, that's just gravy! I always like to see good LR deep south snowstorms. It means we are at least in the game.
Click to expand...
Me too, the LR storms are most of the time fantasy but the last couple weeks, we haven't seen them at all. Atleast they are beginning to show up again. Just need to lock some of the ingredients in like you said.
 
Jiminy Christmas, I’m so sick of these dank, cloudy, medium-cold days! They suck and if it’s not gonna snow, give me back my October 100s and endless days of sunshine!!?
 
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