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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
I don’t know much about them but saw it and wanted to post some MAYBE good news moving forward.
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It is just that if, say, this was named, say, “Tranquil Weather Blog” instead of “Severe Weather Blog”, I’d immediately be giving this idea more credibility.

But, yes, what it is saying sounds reasonable. How fast can the Maritime Continent MJO phases end?
 
Just a snippet from James spann this morning.... Seems like rain is always the story of our winter in Alabama
RAIN RETURNS: Clouds will increase Wednesday night, and rain will become widespread across Alabama Thursday ahead of a long wave upper trough. With very good dynamic forcing, rain could be heavy at times through Thursday night; rain amounts of 2-3 inches are likely over the northern half of the state, with 1-2 inches for the southern counties. For now it looks like the air will be cool and stable, severe storms are not expected. Rain should end early in the day Friday; most of the daytime hours Friday should be rain-free as a dry slot moves into the state. Clouds will most likely linger Friday, although we could see some sun at times.
 
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This little quick moving moisture continues to look a little impressive. Hoping it taps the gulf


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
You seem to be the go to man who can look back and make quick composites. Looking back at winters with that N Pac ridge setting in like that in Jan, how long did it take to break down and become favorable? Most research I've seen it's not many times it flips for the good and we have to rely on the Atlantic instead. That's my reasoning for punting Jan before it even begins. That's my opinion that I believe, not one of my sarcastic winter cancel weenie posts. Nobody knows what Feb holds but lord if the last few are part of a longer pattern we're seeing it wont be pretty.
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2007 probably a good analog, weak nino too. 1989 start off similar to what we are looking at and in Feb a strong AK ridge dominated that led to multiple SE winter threats. I'm sure there is more but those are two off top of my head.


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NoSnowATL said:
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Did you see it? That’s how fast the snow is moving without blocking. I’m not complaining I’ll take a quick hit over nothing anyway.


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If it turns into an ULL or something, it could drop a respectable amount in some locals. OH SNAP!!! I keep forgetting in order to have a well tracked ULL, it has to be 60 degrees. NVM
 
I'll put this in here not to disrupt the storm discussion in the main and fill it with negativity again. A very well respected poster from another board and his thoughts align with mine. Don't shoot the messenger!Screenshot_20191230-115110_Chrome.jpg
 
cd2play said:
If it turns into an ULL or something, it could drop a respectable amount in some locals. OH SNAP!!! I keep forgetting in order to have a well tracked ULL, it has to be 60 degrees. NVM
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The ULL will create its own cold air, though, and rates will overcome the 60 degree temps. ;)
 
superjames1992 said:
The ULL will create its own cold air, though, and rates will overcome the 60 degree temps. ;)
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And the sun angle is at its most favorable ... right ... ???? but in all honesty upper level lows like that could be quite fun to track and can produce some surprise totals .. eh we will see what the euro says
 
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