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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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One of my more miserable winters was in Winston Salem NC, 1993. Not much action. By early March temps hit near record highs, 70's from NYC south, near 80 in northern Georgia and South Carolina. Just a few days later, everything changed.

The March '93 superstorm developed around the 14-17th. I believe it was the first time "Blizzard Warnings," were issued for Atlanta Georgia.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
No it hasn't. It looks average the first week of Jan. Mid 50s isn't a cold pattern. The STJ is keeping the SER at bay and is the only thing keeping us average. Models overall nailed this Pacific pattern at a 2 week lead time. The only thing ridiculous is seeing that big red blob over the north Pac on all guidance and somehow thinking we get a cold pattern with that look. A 3 day cold blast isn't a cold pattern.
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Here’s an example from our king the euro on why we simply can’t be writing off second half of January and all of February ... these are all images for Saturday 00z January 4th .. you can see how from when it was at hour 168 things looked to be going down hill then in successive runs we popped a giant ridge in a fairly favorable position out west giving us a boost in our potential storm possibility within that time frame ... if this can happen all of the sudden and in a fairly drastic way at hour 168 then we simply cannot say with any confidence the rest of January and all of February with be dumpster fire
 

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Snowmizer said:
One of my more miserable winters was in Winston Salem NC, 1993. Not much action. By early March temps hit near record highs, 70's from NYC south, near 80 in northern Georgia and South Carolina. Just a few days later, everything changed.

The March '93 superstorm developed around the 14-17th. I believe it was the first time "Blizzard Warnings," were issued for Atlanta Georgia.
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That’s the only blizzard warning I can tell. We did have a heavy snow warning in the 2010 or 11 winter storm. That was the heaviest snow I’ve seen. It wasn’t windy and the snow flakes were the size or dollar bills and you couldn’t see past 20ft. It was awesome!


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
It's gotten to the point of desperation it here it seems. Unless we pull a miracle next week we will most likely make the end of Jan at least without snow anywhere outside the mountains. It's a hard pill to swallow for some, including me, who thought we'd be seeing a better pattern during our peak climo. After the way last year turned out after mid December and the way this year is going it is very discouraging.
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I think the combo of summers now lasting 6 months along with zilch to track in winter is eating us up inside. There MUST be better seasons ahead somewhere down the line. This just cannot be all that's left. Like Falcons and Panthers football; the fans hope this miserable stretch doesn't last for the long haul.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Here’s an example from our king the euro on why we simply can’t be writing off second half of January and all of February ... these are all images for Saturday 00z January 4th .. you can see how from when it was at hour 168 things looked to be going down hill then in successive runs we popped a giant ridge in a fairly favorable position out west giving us a boost in our potential storm possibility within that time frame ... if this can happen all of the sudden and in a fairly drastic way at hour 168 then we simply cannot say with any confidence the rest of January and all of February with be dumpster fire
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I really wouldn't call that drastic. The PNA ridge got a little stronger due to energy moving across the Pacific. That nudges the trof slightly east. The overall Pacific pattern remains in place. That massive ridge out there is what my focus is on every model when I'm looking for any sign of a pattern change. If that feature becomes locked in we need Atlantic help. And let's be honest, do we really expect that? Not trying to be negative but we haven't had blocking sustained there since 2011. Why? I don't know and nobody else does either. But it's a safe bet that trend continues.
 
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cd2play said:
I think the combo of summers now lasting 6 months along with zilch to track in winter is eating us up inside. There MUST be better seasons ahead somewhere down the line. This just cannot be all that's left. Like Falcons and Panthers football; the fans hope this miserable stretch doesn't last for the long haul.
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It will get better, you can go look at the past 100 years and see stretches of bad winters. I understand we are warmer now but we can still get snow storms. The PAC can’t stay awful forever. That warm blob can’t stay forever as well. My guess is that it gets better after this year. No data to back this claim up just a guess.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
I really wouldn't call that drastic. The PNA ridge got a little stronger due to energy moving across the Pacific. That nudges the trof slightly east. The overall Pacific pattern remains in place. That massive ridge out there is what my focus is on every model when I'm looking for any sign of a pattern change. If that feature becomes locked in we need Atlantic help. And let's be honest, do we really expect that? Not trying to be negative but we haven't had blocking sustained there since 2011. Why? I don't know and nobody else does either. But it's a safe bet that trend continues.
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Okay fair .. what about these images from the past two nights of euro runs for the same time frame now within 200 hours.. I would say a fairly drastic change in the right direction
 

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NoSnowATL said:
It will get better, you can go look at the past 100 years and see stretches of bad winters. I understand we are warmer now but we can still get snow storms. The PAC can’t stay awful forever. That warm blob can’t stay forever as well. My guess is that it gets better after this year. No data to back this claim up just a guess.


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I'd be interested to have time to sit down and find these long periods of suck in the past and see if there was a correlation with solar cycles. If they occured during solar maximums or not. This stretch is during a quiet sun. Which in my lifetime has produced. 95-96 was a solar minimum and was good on the east coast. And of course 09-10 was great.
 
GaWx said:
Seeing that the name is “Severe Weather Blog” and that they’re optimistic makes me wonder if this is a weenie blog. Can we trust this blog? I’m not saying you’re trusting it though.
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This looks like a job for the one and only Webber ... Webb this guy know what he’s talking about or are we looking at a weenie blog??
 
Rain Cold said:
Your avatar is funny. I disagree about winter not turning around and that we won't see a better pattern emerge until March. I think there will be at least a couple of stable cold patterns with some decent snow chances down the road. However (and there's almost always a however), the massive ridge forecast to develop in the Pacific, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a stable feature in an unfavorable location that will take a while to break down, if history serves as a guide.

We'll be at peak despair during the 3rd week of January, if that pattern sets in and shows little sign of breaking by then. Until it breaks, any chance of a winter storm will be like pulling a habit out of a rat.
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Well I figure we have a legit 9-10 more weeks of winter where folks outside the mountains can see a moderate winter event. When you look at the ensembles it looks bleak and you can't imagine things flipping. I am trying not to look at the ensembles because any hope is outside there range at the moment. We do have a shot next week at an event. I wish our window was a little longer than 3 days...if it was 5-7 days i would be much more optimistic but it's the only game in town.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Okay fair .. what about these images from the past two nights of euro runs for the same time frame now within 200 hours.. I would say a fairly drastic change in the right direction
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I'm not real sure. It seems to be developing lower heights in Alaska which is actually not what we want. I actually liked the first image for the Pacific better with ridging up there, although it was too far west. Still that large ridge over N Pacific argues any PNA ridge is short lived. Either way those are op runs more than a week out. But that feature is constant on all ensembles. We have to get that feature to move and to be honest I don't know what it'll take to get it further east and up into AK to help us long term.
 
KyloG said:
Well I figure we have a legit 9-10 more weeks of winter where folks outside the mountains can see a moderate winter event. When you look at the ensembles it looks bleak and you can't imagine things flipping. I am trying not to look at the ensembles because any hope is outside there range at the moment. We do have a shot next week at an event. I wish our window was a little longer than 3 days...if it was 5-7 days i would be much more optimistic but it's the only game in town.
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You seem to be the go to man who can look back and make quick composites. Looking back at winters with that N Pac ridge setting in like that in Jan, how long did it take to break down and become favorable? Most research I've seen it's not many times it flips for the good and we have to rely on the Atlantic instead. That's my reasoning for punting Jan before it even begins. That's my opinion that I believe, not one of my sarcastic winter cancel weenie posts. Nobody knows what Feb holds but lord if the last few are part of a longer pattern we're seeing it wont be pretty.
 
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