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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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A couple of opportunities next ten days. Strong trof will swing by 144 hrs. Chance of convective snow showers western North Carolina and Virginia. Image below.

A stronger and at this time a "broad" wave 180-240 sets up Eastern US. Low pressure lurks off SE coast. All we need is amplification. Something to watch. Image below.

Nevertheless cold air sets up. Image below.
 

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whatalife said:
If the past several Februarys are any indication of what’s to come this winter....Better figure out a way to score in the D10 range.


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"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior".... you can't bring your counseling logic into our winter fantasy thread. Lol
 
Four years ago today back when ensembles were sexy
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Rain Cold said:
Before you see the light at the end of the tunnel, you have to actually be in the tunnel. The tunnel isn't even on the radar yet, according to the maps below. Going to be game over for most of January, if this comes to pass.

View attachment 29228

And it only gets worse from here.

View attachment 29229

Welcome back to our typical winter pattern. Maybe somebody can pick me up, but I'm not seeing much of a reason to expect much for most of the month now. Originally, I thought we'd start to shift better after week 2, but it looks like that estimate may be way too soon.
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Nothing has changed here. I've been saying for a week or more now nothing but a transient cold shot here and there for Jan. Plenty of evidence that once the Pac goes bad like that it never recovers. The winters that turned around had Atlantic help. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking the NAO will help this year. We should know better. Personally I think our goose is cooked for met winter and can say that with 80/20 confidence even in Dec. We better hope to luck out with one of the cold shots or hope we can manage something in March.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Nothing has changed here. I've been saying for a week or more now nothing but a transient cold shot here and there for Jan. Plenty of evidence that once the Pac goes bad like that it never recovers. The winters that turned around had Atlantic help. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking the NAO will help this year. We should know better. Personally I think our goose is cooked for met winter and can say that with 80/20 confidence even in Dec. We better hope to luck out with one of the cold shots or hope we can manage something in March.
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I feel better knowing we are going through this early spring together! Last year was harder knowing many got loads of snow in early December.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Nothing has changed here. I've been saying for a week or more now nothing but a transient cold shot here and there for Jan. Plenty of evidence that once the Pac goes bad like that it never recovers. The winters that turned around had Atlantic help. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking the NAO will help this year. We should know better. Personally I think our goose is cooked for met winter and can say that with 80/20 confidence even in Dec. We better hope to luck out with one of the cold shots or hope we can manage something in March.
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Your avatar is funny. I disagree about winter not turning around and that we won't see a better pattern emerge until March. I think there will be at least a couple of stable cold patterns with some decent snow chances down the road. However (and there's almost always a however), the massive ridge forecast to develop in the Pacific, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a stable feature in an unfavorable location that will take a while to break down, if history serves as a guide.

We'll be at peak despair during the 3rd week of January, if that pattern sets in and shows little sign of breaking by then. Until it breaks, any chance of a winter storm will be like pulling a habit out of a rat.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Nothing has changed here. I've been saying for a week or more now nothing but a transient cold shot here and there for Jan. Plenty of evidence that once the Pac goes bad like that it never recovers. The winters that turned around had Atlantic help. Let's not kid ourselves into thinking the NAO will help this year. We should know better. Personally I think our goose is cooked for met winter and can say that with 80/20 confidence even in Dec. We better hope to luck out with one of the cold shots or hope we can manage something in March.
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Another ridiculous post .. we can’t say anything with confidence that’s past 150 hours with these models .. we’ve seen them switch up to very warm after it showed cold and we’ve seen most recently how it’s switched from warm to fairly cold giving us our first legit shot of a storm jan 5-7 these models have been all over the place and to say you have confidence that all of January and February we won’t become favorable at some point is quite ridiculous at this juncture
 
Rain Cold said:
Your avatar is funny. I disagree about winter not turning around and that we won't see a better pattern emerge until March. I think there will be at least a couple of stable cold patterns with some decent snow chances down the road. However (and there's almost always a however), the massive ridge forecast to develop in the Pacific, if it comes to fruition, is going to be a stable feature in an unfavorable location that will take a while to break down, if history serves as a guide.

We'll be at peak despair during the 3rd week of January, if that pattern sets in and shows little sign of breaking by then. Until it breaks, any chance of a winter storm will be like pulling a habit out of a rat.
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It'll be hard to get rid of that God awful N Pac ridge. Not sure what that would take at the moment.
 
All cold outbreaks wain, and are transitiory in the South. Long range models are volitile in January. I'll side with climatology.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Another ridiculous post .. we can’t say anything with confidence that’s past 150 hours with these models .. we’ve seen them switch up to very warm after it showed cold and we’ve seen most recently how it’s switched from warm to fairly cold giving us our first legit shot of a storm jan 5-7 these models have been all over the place and to say you have confidence that all of January and February we won’t become favorable at some point is quite ridiculous at this juncture
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Just a friendly reminder that this is a weather discussion board, we discuss short, mid, long range threats, patterns, cold, warmth, model projections, etc.. and also a friendly reminder that if you wish to civilly debate or offer up rebuttal evidence (maps, analogs, theories, etc) then go for it but do so without calling someone or there post "ridiculous". I've said before, some on here need to realize the tone with which they post, maybe the perceptions aren't intended but it's not healthy for any discussion.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Another ridiculous post .. we can’t say anything with confidence that’s past 150 hours with these models .. we’ve seen them switch up to very warm after it showed cold and we’ve seen most recently how it’s switched from warm to fairly cold giving us our first legit shot of a storm jan 5-7 these models have been all over the place and to say you have confidence that all of January and February we won’t become favorable at some point is quite ridiculous at this juncture
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No it hasn't. It looks average the first week of Jan. Mid 50s isn't a cold pattern. The STJ is keeping the SER at bay and is the only thing keeping us average. Models overall nailed this Pacific pattern at a 2 week lead time. The only thing ridiculous is seeing that big red blob over the north Pac on all guidance and somehow thinking we get a cold pattern with that look. A 3 day cold blast isn't a cold pattern.
 
metwannabe said:
Just a friendly reminder that this is a weather discussion board, we discuss short, mid, long range threats, patterns, cold, warmth, model projections, etc.. and also a friendly reminder that if you wish to civilly debate or offer up rebuttal evidence (maps, analogs, theories, etc) then go for it but do so without calling someone or there post "ridiculous". I've said before, some on here need to realize the tone with which they post, maybe the perceptions aren't intended but it's not healthy for any discussion.
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My apologies I definitely do not intend for my posts to sound too angry or condescending in anyway.. I do get frustrated seeing posts of people who use language to suggest they know for sure that the pattern all the way through February will be unfavorable for snow and cold .. that in my eyes is not a fair statement to make
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, you sure do take a beating when you make an unfavorable post about the LR. Night and day reactions when it's the opposite.
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It's gotten to the point of desperation it here it seems. Unless we pull a miracle next week we will most likely make the end of Jan at least without snow anywhere outside the mountains. It's a hard pill to swallow for some, including me, who thought we'd be seeing a better pattern during our peak climo. After the way last year turned out after mid December and the way this year is going it is very discouraging.
 
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