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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
So it’s like 8 days out right? Get it inside 6 hrs and we are game.


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Step one: See if the ensembles have anything that resembles it in the next few minutes.
Step two: See if it shows up overnight tonight.

We get past that then maybe we think about tracking. Big ifs.
 
Tarheel1 said:
See if Cedrick let’s his ??out! His first true test! Expect a detailed write up by WxSouth, within the next few hours! $$
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WxSouth didn’t even let the Euro finish! Already blowing up FB with “ severe” winter storm for SE on Euro, December winter storms and Hassan, yadda! Man that was quick!??????
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea but I don’t see snow this time, looks to be all freezing rain turning into cold rain. I wouldn’t expect to hear anything from local Mets until we are inside 3-5 days.


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No doubt. If that high is as strong as the Euro shows it may even be more sleet than freezing rain I hope. Otherwise it will be an icy mess!
 
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NoSnowATL said:
I’m pulling for pure ice, 1-1.5in of ice ( which isn’t going to happen) would be amazing to see.


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As long as it doesn't involve several days of no power and trees falling everywhere that would be good. The big ice storm of 2000 brought down a huge pine tree branch on my new car at the time. Had it a month maybe and the roof and hood needed to be replaced. Ever since then I was not too fond of ice lol.
 
GaStorm said:
As long as it doesn't involve several days of no power and trees falling everywhere that would be good. The big ice storm of 2000 brought down a huge pine tree branch on my new car at the time. Had it a month maybe and the roof and hood needed to be replaced. Ever since then I was not too fond of ice lol.
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I’ll take anything at this point. Ice, sleet, snow, frost. Anything but 32 rain AGAIN.


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Fun fact : Raleigh averages 3 days over 70 in December with a mean maximum of 72. January averages 2 and February 4 if I’m not mistaken . We also average 26 days 60 or higher December - February .

Felt the need to say that because people get so overwhelmed when he hit 70 in winter as if it is an abnormal occurrence . Don’t ask for the stats for Dallas or Columbia they are heartbreaking . Think Dallas averages exactly half the winter at 60 or up or close to it.
 
Hello!
Daily 5 minute pop-in due to gobs and gobs of work ... glad to see that the models are still being models every 6 hours, and to once again see there is no real agreement among them ... heck, looks like the CPC cannot even agree with itself ...
No observations to offer from this end, but I'd like to express a sincere thanks to y'all for making a 5 minute review substantive! Really ... Thanks! Hopefully I can reciprocate and add something substantively positive soon ...
Best!
Phil
 
Lickwx said:
Fun fact : Raleigh averages 3 days over 70 in December with a mean maximum of 72. January averages 2 and February 4 if I’m not mistaken . We also average 26 days 60 or higher December - February .

Felt the need to say that because people get so overwhelmed when he hit 70 in winter as if it is an abnormal occurrence . Don’t ask for the stats for Dallas or Columbia they are heartbreaking . Think Dallas averages exactly half the winter at 60 or up or close to it.
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Good post!
 
WxWatch said:
After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.

Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.

The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.

More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.

View attachment 27002

Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.

View attachment 27003



View attachment 27004


Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
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10 or so more posts a month like this and Charlie could syndicate and start distributing royalties to all of us ... :cool:
 
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