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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Nashville went from February 12,2003 until January 29, 2010 without any snows over 2". I do not, I mean DO NOT want to go that long again.
 
KyloG said:
If Packbacker was around we wouldn't be in this mess! :rolleyes:

Catching on my weather twitter feed. This is about the best news I could find to post on. If we are going to be warm let's do it the right way.

2 super nino's and 2 nina's and our 07 analog popping up, again. Would love that to repeat for Feb but with active STJ.

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The 11-12 La Nina winter acted almost like a raging El Nino (nationwide torch)
 
I remember that toasty winter of 15-16. We only received three feet of snow in Baltimore, most of that fell on a Saturday. Heat is energy. It's like March in January.
 
Snowmizer said:
I remember that toasty winter of 15-16. We only received three feet of snow in Baltimore, most of that fell on a Saturday. Heat is energy. It's like March in January.
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That winter did produce a nice event, but I almost wonder if that super nino killed the Pacific. It's been hot shart since.
 
whatalife said:
They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Anybody still thinking a jammin January? Lol as the French say "c'est fini"
 
The bottom line is weather is variable. Patterns eb and flow. It only takes one anomalie to kick off a major storm. Cold and warm air advection fuels them. It's just timing. You guys in the south are way past due for a major event.
 
ima keep the 12z run in my memories, I would take Convective snow over 6 hours of light snow, so unique seeing what looks like towering cumulus that mimicks summertime cumulonimbus but instead it’s snow, the thundersnow to, and the big rates 2506A1F6-C230-4F7B-9DF2-A0E4C9D9E0D5.png
 
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
 
Rain Cold said:
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
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Analy triggered and releasing bowels in the same post....golf clap from me

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Rain Cold said:
Packbacker was a prolific poster at American who didn't weenie up a thread with wishing and hopium. Instead, he posted data, historical analysis, and model output. His one mistake was not sugar-coating reality, not nearly enough.

You see, some folks get analy triggered when someone discusses the unpopular opinion about why it's likely to not be record cold with blizzards. Indeed, they release their bowels all over the minority who would dare not hug the 384 GFS or, heaven forbid, discuss the inevitable north shift of the rain/snow line.

Packbacker's demise left an imbalance within the weather forum world. Now weenieism and unrealistic optimism runs unchecked. Maybe one day, someday, his essence will rise from the ashes of a long warm winter, where it will once again be rejoined to to a keyboard, bringing balance back to weather weenies everywhere.

The Rise of Packbacker.....
Click to expand...

Just curious. What is the difference between huging a 10-15 day GFS and a 10-15 day 500mb hieghts anomalies ensemble?
 
Snowmizer said:
Just curious. What is the difference between huging a 10-15 day GFS and a 10-15 day 500mb hieghts anomalies ensemble?
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Presumably, the ensemble has more skill at depicting the general configuration of key features, likely to drive the pattern. They provide a measure of probability/uncertainty.

You raise a good question that is actually part of a broader idea, which is, how should ensemble data be used?

Ensembles really help provide an understanding of pattern stability and pattern chaos. Unfortunately, a 500mb 11-16 day mean snapshot doesn't really do that. That, however, doesn't mean it provides no value. We have a tendency to pick a couple of maps we're familiar with and use them out of context or use them in context but draw faulty conclusions from them.

IMO, that's maybe just a little better than relying on a 16 day GFS snow map. But it sounds like it ought to be a lot better because, after all, it's an ensemble plot. And after all, it kinda feels good to say, "I looked at an ensemble plot".

I want to say that ensembles get misused a lot in the weather forum business, but it's probably more accurate to say that they are used partially.
 
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