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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Rain Cold said:
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Baby Shark do do do do do?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, Fayetteville has had a string of pretty good luck in much of the 2010s. We ended up scoring an extra 5" w/ the early Jan 2011 event while Raleigh got jipped. Fayetteville also picked up an additional 3-4" in 2013-14 right before the big dog on Feb 12-13 in a storm that was supposed to produce a few scattered flurries to a light coating at best (oops). Then, we saw just as much snow as Raleigh in the Feb 12-13th storm which was also not supposed to drop more than about a coating to an inch. It was definitely nice to see 8" of snow on the ground again.



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Worth mentioning that 2013-14 is only the 2nd winter on record (since 1891) to produce at least three 3"+ snow events in Fayetteville, the other winter being 1935-36 (obviously). Just goes to show how insane that winter was.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Worth mentioning that 2013-14 is only the 2nd winter on record (since 1891) to produce at least three 3"+ snow events in Fayetteville, the other winter being 1935-36 (obviously). Just goes to show how insane that winter was.
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Makes sense, I've mentioned before that especially down here in the CAE area, years where we get hit, it normally comes in "2's". Some analogs that are recent are 2004, 2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014. Even the Carolina's as a whole like Charlotte for example, they seem to come in 2's at least. A few of these years have seen winter storms exactly two weeks apart in the SE. This happened in Dec 26th, 2010 then 2 weeks later on Jan 9th, 2011. Late Jan 2014 into Mid Feb 2014. Then Jan 3rd 2018 then again two weeks later on Jan 17th 2018. Weird how it works at times.
 
I’m ready for business to pick up. I’m hesitantly hopeful for a winter of yonder year ??
 
Robert West said:
Makes sense, I've mentioned before that especially down here in the CAE area, years where we get hit, it normally comes in "2's". Some analogs that are recent are 2004, 2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014. Even the Carolina's as a whole like Charlotte for example, they seem to come in 2's at least. A few of these years have seen winter storms exactly two weeks apart in the SE. This happened in Dec 26th, 2010 then 2 weeks later on Jan 9th, 2011. Late Jan 2014 into Mid Feb 2014. Then Jan 3rd 2018 then again two weeks later on Jan 17th 2018. Weird how it works at times.
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I think it would be nice to produce a map that shows for instance the percent of winters given one snow of at least "x" size that produce 1, 2, 3, (etc) storms of that size. I think you'll find that over time the distribution of values on that map closely resembles climatology, where exactly that 2, 3, or even 4 cut off line is, I'm not sure but it certainly would be helpful in getting your bearings on what a legitimate theoretical ceiling on "small", "moderate", or "big" storms would be for a particular area and how that varies across space.

You could take this a bit further and set a cutoff value wherein say you create a 90th or 95th percentile map of the distribution of the number of winters that feature the number of storms of at least "x" size so that ceiling is a bit more reasonable rather than showing the max value (which is virtually never going to be observed)
 
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This winter seems like it’s not actually going to start. until winter starts on the calendar. I feel like this year we have one or two big dogs in Jan/February compared to a December storm like the past 2 years. And if that is indeed what’s going to happen I can be patient. I’d love to have 6+ inches that cover a large area of the southeast.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m getting all sad reading the suck in the December thread. We need some damn snow falling in the teens to cure this
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Reading all of it makes we wonder how we ever see snow like in 88,93,2002,2004,2009,2001,2014,2017. All happened in this warming climate. I’m fine with that.


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