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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Subtle trends on the past few runs of the EPS makes a big difference with solid AN temps to slightly BN in the east with a small shot at an event. I would like to see that Aleutian ridge nose into Alaska/Yukon more and that very weak eb-NAO trend a little stronger.

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KyloG said:
Subtle trends on the past few runs of the EPS makes a big difference with solid AN temps to slightly BN in the east with a small shot at an event. I would like to see that Aleutian ridge nose into Alaska/Yukon more and that very weak eb-NAO trend a little stronger.

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Honestly decent trends. More okhotsk low means more ridging into AK and maybe less of the mega -pna. Tpv getting inched west by more Scandinavia ridging means we might be able to mute a big SE ridge. As we move forward in time I want to see if the models move toward even more troughing in the okhotsk region and can really get the Pacific ridge into the areas you mentioned. The Scandinavian piece becomes a wildcard, can it build enough to cause a pseudo -nao or does the tpv escape toward the pole or eventually beat down the ridge. Those images really show how we are teetering for the 2nd half of January. We can go into a much more supportive pattern or easily into a dumpster fire.

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cd2play said:
So, just what would it take to get the Pacific back on the rails? Is it even possible anymore?
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Honestly no it's not. Unless we get Atlantic side help it's over. And I'm not saying that to be negative. A lot agree. Below is a post from another board from one of their well respected members.Screenshot_20191228-055901_Chrome.jpg
 
It would be funny if Seattle loses to SF and in opening round of playoffs, thus going 0-2 with Beast mode back in lineup.
 
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
 
Goose88 said:
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
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We'll have some cold shots, but I'm afraid they will all be very short lived, and overall warmth will prevail (i.e. 2011-12 winter)
 
Goose88 said:
Am I the only one or do some others think we may have seen our coldest temperatures for the season? I hope not but the long range isn't looking good especially January. I'm in Birmingham btw.
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We haven't. It will get cold again. And were going to have a big legit SE winter storm too.
 
This may or may not be the year we break the streak of Fugly Februaries, but this streak of Fugly Febs can't last forever. Eventually we'll have at least a seasonal (if not cold) February again. February is a winter month and it will happen again.
 
We always say the models suck. What if they just have improved inside 7 days? As someone pointed out in the main thread we only get 1 storm per year anyway. As the models improve things should get even more boring.
 
When looking at these models I feel like we are trying to make lemonade out of lemons....rather we might be dealing with rotten onions.

Stinky and appalling.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I would suggest not to look at models until mid January. It’s less stressful. I will enjoy my high 50s- low 60s along with my rainstorms every 3-4 days.


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But you would have missed the SE snowfall on the latest Op Euro...which has limited ensemble support. Was so close to being bigger.
 
Thanks for responding fellas & keep up the good work I don't comment often but y'all do an awesome job & have taught me alot over the years
 
What’s the preferred model viewing platform these days? Is WeatherBell still good? That’s what I used to have, but I discontinued my subscription when I moved to Florida a few years ago. But now that I’m back I might as well get one again as Dr. No is too tempting to ignore.
 
superjames1992 said:
What’s the preferred model viewing platform these days? Is WeatherBell still good? That’s what I used to have, but I discontinued my subscription when I moved to Florida a few years ago. But now that I’m back I might as well get one again as Dr. No is too tempting to ignore.
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Weathermodels.com



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superjames1992 said:
What’s the preferred model viewing platform these days? Is WeatherBell still good? That’s what I used to have, but I discontinued my subscription when I moved to Florida a few years ago. But now that I’m back I might as well get one again as Dr. No is too tempting to ignore.
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As SD said, Weathermodels.com. Much cheaper than weatherbell and is run by Ryan Maue. I've never used paid subscription model sites and have relied on the free ones, but if I ever did I'd probably use weathermodels.com.
 
Brent said:
At least so far my trip to Lake Tahoe late next weekend into the following week looks snowy.. might be my only snow this winter lol

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Traveling to other cities while an ongoing snowstorm is happening can be quite therapeutic during a bad southeast winter. I went through flagstaff Arizona one year while one of those epic mountain winter storms was in progress. There was already a foot of snow on the ground when I got there and it proceeded to snow heavily all night that evening. The next morning the snow drifts were covering car tops and even some roof tops of smaller houses. I kept going outside throughout the evening just admiring the heaviest snow I’d ever seen falling with no end in sight. Fortunately for me I got to experience something similar here at home 8 years later when 12 inches of snow fell in January of 2016.
 
cd2play said:
This may or may not be the year we break the streak of Fugly Februaries, but this streak of Fugly Febs can't last forever. Eventually we'll have at least a seasonal (if not cold) February again. February is a winter month and it will happen again.
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February’s had been very good to our area until the last 3 years. I won’t be shocked if we have a good one this winter or next.
 
Well Webber we screwed our Iowa storm for this week. It’s fitting . I’m sure when you go to Boston in a few weeks they will be in the 40s .......

I have to go to Arizona in three weeks I’m sure that’s when the southeast will cash in

We suck ....... I hate winter


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Storm5 said:
Well Webber we screwed our Iowa storm for this week. It’s fitting . I’m sure when you go to Boston in a few weeks they will be in the 40s .......

I have to go to Arizona in three weeks I’m sure that’s when the southeast will cash in

We suck ....... I hate winter


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If it snows while you're gone, there might be a moving van in your drive way when you return.
 
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