Safe to say we’re moving in the wrong direction idgaf if it long range operational stuff or not..nextView attachment 28568
What's the opposite of cross-polar flow called???No one told me the 06z GFS was this bad..woof ridge ? View attachment 28567
It'll give my +4-6 December a chance to verifySafe to say we’re moving in the wrong direction idgaf if its long range operational stuff or not..nextView attachment 28568
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Even the great mets have weenie tendencies and love cold and snow. So they look at this crap being advertised and look for a way out. You can always find a way for the pattern to turn favorable. But I have to wonder if they actually believe it or are they just wishcasting in a sense? 9 our of 10 times those ways out fail to materialize. This constant barrage of horrible patterns in winter is a repeating cycle that not a single person can explain. Regardless of ENSO, QBO, SST's, low solar doesnt matter. We still end up with the same result (AN temps and below average snow most years) every year.
I just want to please the birds!?Arctic sea ice is about to go gangbusters in the coming weeks. It’s impossible to please the southeast snow goobers and the arctic ice huggers at the same time
This place is jumping this morning and on that note....Where can I find the nearest cliff!![]()
Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
Not sure. Webber still seems to think things are on track.
Larry, do you think we can get the AAM neutral or positive to salvage some winter before we run out of time? Or what can happen to cause that to possibly occur? I guess the ocean and atmosphere are still out of sync ?Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
Larry, do you think we can get the AAM neutral or positive to salvage some winter before we run out of time? Or what can happen to cause that to possibly occur? I guess the ocean and atmosphere are still out of sync ?
Good post!It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
Per Maxar, the Euro ens is predicting a +AAM for the first time since mid November starting 12/25 and lasting at least a week. Since June, Maxar said there has been no more than a day or two of neutral to slightly +AAM. Whereas the Euro may have a +AAM bias, that’s not clear and the Euro hadn’t predicted a +AAM the last 2 months. Also, GEFS projects it rising to neutral 12/25 and it has had a -AAM bias. So, the combo of these 2 models is strongly suggesting there will actually be at least a week of +AAM the last week of December for the first time since June.
A +AAM has some correlation with an El Niño pattern of AN temps N US and BN temps/storminess S US, which is what most here want. So, keep hope alive for a nonwarm January and maybe even a BN January. There’s no reason for sudden extra high negativity today vs previous days, which were showing similar warmth the last 10 days of Dec into the first couple of Jan.
No sir. I'm claiming full credit for that one. That was my only and final outlook issued in September. That's how easy this is.Did I make this ??? I remember making this and that ugly “hand” writing I got ??
No sir. I'm claiming full credit for that one. That was my only and final outlook issued in September. That's how easy this is.
Per Maxar, the Euro ens is predicting a +AAM for the first time since mid November starting 12/25 and lasting at least a week. Since June, Maxar said there has been no more than a day or two of neutral to slightly +AAM. Whereas the Euro may have a +AAM bias, that’s not clear and the Euro hadn’t predicted a +AAM the last 2 months. Also, GEFS projects it rising to neutral 12/25 and it has had a -AAM bias. So, the combo of these 2 models is strongly suggesting there will actually be at least a week of +AAM the last week of December for the first time since June.
A +AAM has some correlation with an El Niño pattern of AN temps N US and BN temps/storminess S US, which is what most here want. So, keep hope alive for a nonwarm January and maybe even a BN January. There’s no reason for sudden extra high negativity today vs previous days, which were showing similar warmth the last 10 days of Dec into the first couple of Jan.
You are going to be right on in the SE, upper plains might be normal to above normal though.No sir. I'm claiming full credit for that one. That was my only and final outlook issued in September. That's how easy this is.
Sure is! This is not just your transient warm up while the pattern reshuffles. That's a pattern that's ugly as it gets that has staying power. I'll probably get flamed for saying it but we're in a world of poop if that's what actually verifies come the 1st week if Jan. Could take until Feb to get out of that garbage. And Feb has been as bad of a dumpster fire as December lately so there you go.Man this place is hopping today
Negative! Not everyone. Let the EPS show something decent and I'll pay attention.tonight the gfs will throw a LR bone and everyone will be excited again.
You didn’t get the memo? GFS has a +PNA bias ?