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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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Birds are taking a break from the Carolina December dump of cold rain. They said no white Christmas and most of January will be a loss too south and east of i40.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Even the great mets have weenie tendencies and love cold and snow. So they look at this crap being advertised and look for a way out. You can always find a way for the pattern to turn favorable. But I have to wonder if they actually believe it or are they just wishcasting in a sense? 9 our of 10 times those ways out fail to materialize. This constant barrage of horrible patterns in winter is a repeating cycle that not a single person can explain. Regardless of ENSO, QBO, SST's, low solar doesnt matter. We still end up with the same result (AN temps and below average snow most years) every year.
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GW but January hasn’t warmed.
 
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Arctic sea ice is about to go gangbusters in the coming weeks. It’s impossible to please the southeast snow goobers and the arctic ice huggers at the same time
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure. Webber still seems to think things are on track.
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January has not warmed on average despite GW. If we’re going to have a near normal or colder month this winter, January is the best bet based on the last 20 years. There’s no reason to assume it will be warm on the whole as of yet.
 
GaWx said:
Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
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Larry, do you think we can get the AAM neutral or positive to salvage some winter before we run out of time? Or what can happen to cause that to possibly occur? I guess the ocean and atmosphere are still out of sync ?
 
Always chasing the perfect pattern now days, what it feels like, will be middle of January, beginning of February, maybe by the end of February, then March can bring some winter storms, and then finally I give up by May.? (this is me I’m talking about). No science behind this at all, just how it has been for the last 2-3 years where I’m at in NE Mississippi. Sorry for the rant, I just want to completely cut my internet off so I will be forced not to look.? I know I’m beating a dead horse.
 
GaWx said:
Why is today of all days suddenly full of negativity? Did something change today?
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It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
 
Well our southern sliders are starting the new year in the Great Lakes region. I hope we can expedite this stepdown process or it might be time to shine the wedges ?️ 64D71B4E-1AE9-4F70-9E54-A9ABA0D38964.png
 
Robert West said:
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
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damn, that’s real af
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, do you think we can get the AAM neutral or positive to salvage some winter before we run out of time? Or what can happen to cause that to possibly occur? I guess the ocean and atmosphere are still out of sync ?
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Per Maxar, the Euro ens is predicting a +AAM for the first time since mid November starting 12/25 and lasting at least a week. Since June, Maxar said there has been no more than a day or two of neutral to slightly +AAM. Whereas the Euro may have a +AAM bias, that’s not clear and the Euro hadn’t predicted a +AAM the last 2 months. Also, GEFS projects it rising to neutral 12/25 and it has had a -AAM bias. So, the combo of these 2 models is strongly suggesting there will actually be at least a week of +AAM the last week of December for the first time since June.

A +AAM has some correlation with an El Niño pattern of AN temps N US and BN temps/storminess S US, which is what most here want. So, keep hope alive for a nonwarm January and maybe even a BN January. There’s no reason for sudden extra high negativity today vs previous days, which were showing similar warmth the last 10 days of Dec into the first couple of Jan.
 
Robert West said:
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
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Good post!
 
Robert West said:
It's simple really, the only real access we have is the long range GFS. For your average weather enthusiast, that's the easiest thing to understand. It's simple, we look for cold air or a storm, if it aint there then negativity settles in. If nothing shows on there, not even a fantasy storm as we are nearing Jan, people are going to start closing in on the cliff. I am at fault for that also, but as the streak continues here in the Midlands of no Winter weather, I personally find myself caring less and less. I miss the old days as a teenager and kid where the general public didn't have as much access to everything that's out there. We'd all simply get on the weather channel, watch the local on the 8s, and hope that when the 10 day forecast came up that the good ole snow or wintry mix icon would be showing. It was fun back then. Now, we look for it so freakin hard, and it just kills the fun sometimes when most of the time here in the South, it never pans out.
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This is so true. Sometimes I wish it was easier to give up coming here and looking at what the models showed in the long range, and just do what I used to do when I first discovered there were weather forums. I used to just look at the local NWS forecast and only go to the boards when there was snow/ice in the 7 day forecast, or the possibility was mentioned in the forecast discussion.
 
GaWx said:
Per Maxar, the Euro ens is predicting a +AAM for the first time since mid November starting 12/25 and lasting at least a week. Since June, Maxar said there has been no more than a day or two of neutral to slightly +AAM. Whereas the Euro may have a +AAM bias, that’s not clear and the Euro hadn’t predicted a +AAM the last 2 months. Also, GEFS projects it rising to neutral 12/25 and it has had a -AAM bias. So, the combo of these 2 models is strongly suggesting there will actually be at least a week of +AAM the last week of December for the first time since June.

A +AAM has some correlation with an El Niño pattern of AN temps N US and BN temps/storminess S US, which is what most here want. So, keep hope alive for a nonwarm January and maybe even a BN January. There’s no reason for sudden extra high negativity today vs previous days, which were showing similar warmth the last 10 days of Dec into the first couple of Jan.
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And watch the +AAM switch back to negative just in time for severe weather season
 
seems like in late April/May, AAM switches, Indian ocean convection gets the cranking, especially this past spring, and it gets hot, i'm already looking forward to it tbh...
 
GaWx said:
Per Maxar, the Euro ens is predicting a +AAM for the first time since mid November starting 12/25 and lasting at least a week. Since June, Maxar said there has been no more than a day or two of neutral to slightly +AAM. Whereas the Euro may have a +AAM bias, that’s not clear and the Euro hadn’t predicted a +AAM the last 2 months. Also, GEFS projects it rising to neutral 12/25 and it has had a -AAM bias. So, the combo of these 2 models is strongly suggesting there will actually be at least a week of +AAM the last week of December for the first time since June.

A +AAM has some correlation with an El Niño pattern of AN temps N US and BN temps/storminess S US, which is what most here want. So, keep hope alive for a nonwarm January and maybe even a BN January. There’s no reason for sudden extra high negativity today vs previous days, which were showing similar warmth the last 10 days of Dec into the first couple of Jan.
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I definitely agree here, there really is no need to be excessively negative at least in the context of the rest of Dec.

Oth, the sign of AAM alone doesn't actually explicitly tell you what phase of ENSO said pattern corresponds to although +ENSO is correlated w/ +AAM. It's certainly possible to have +AAM confined largely in the extratropics w/ tropical & polar -AAM which is actually what we're going to see this week. AAM is closely linked w/ the MJO so it would make perfect sense once the +IOD backed off & the West Pacific began to reassert itself that AAM would rise once again.
 
Brent said:
Man this place is hopping today
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Sure is! This is not just your transient warm up while the pattern reshuffles. That's a pattern that's ugly as it gets that has staying power. I'll probably get flamed for saying it but we're in a world of poop if that's what actually verifies come the 1st week if Jan. Could take until Feb to get out of that garbage. And Feb has been as bad of a dumpster fire as December lately so there you go.
 
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