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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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SD said:
Yeah I'm starting to get a little concerned about January, since all modeling now wants to consolidate the tpv instead of elongating it into Canada. Plenty of time to go though and I'm not sure I'm all aboard that mjo wave just dying. We shall see

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You were all in just a few days ago.

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Brick Tamland said:
Y'all are funny. Just this week Webber was talking about how good things look going into January, and others were talking about it looking more positive for winter storms than negative. And then today everyone is all doom and gloom, even a couple of the same folks that were "all in" for January. You should realize how the long range flips and flops all the time, and that things can go from ugly to a big winter storm in a week's time here. Just chill. Maybe take a Xanax.
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Maybe because the models look like ---- and that is the only tangible thing we have. Look I'm still all in for January but there have certainly been concerning trends the last 2 days. To top it off not all of us have seen 20 inches of snow the past 2 winters so I understand the negativity

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Brick Tamland said:
Y'all are funny. Just this week Webber was talking about how good things look going into January, and others were talking about it looking more positive for winter storms than negative. And then today everyone is all doom and gloom, even a couple of the same folks that were "all in" for January. You should realize how the long range flips and flops all the time, and that things can go from ugly to a big winter storm in a week's time here. Just chill. Maybe take a Xanax.
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It still looks good, we are just joking...... Maybe


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SD said:
Yeah I'm starting to get a little concerned about January, since all modeling now wants to consolidate the tpv instead of elongating it into Canada. Plenty of time to go though and I'm not sure I'm all aboard that mjo wave just dying. We shall see

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We've seen that before and we know it takes time to get out that pattern. Maybe others are right and models "flip flop" but...

If I was kicking the can it would be until atleast mid-January. Once mid-January comes and we are still looking at a sucktastic pattern I might start reaching for the towel and queuing up the below gif.


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KyloG said:
We've seen that before and we know it takes time to get out that pattern. Maybe others are right and models "flip flop" but...

If I was kicking the can it would be until atleast mid-January. Once mid-January comes and we are still looking at a sucktastic pattern I might start reaching for the towel and queuing up the below gif.


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You know this is going to be another warm feb cold March upcoming. Even if we are blanked through jan I might hold out this year

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People are wary despite being very positive earlier bc from experience we know the negative outcomes come to fruition much more than favorable ones. Im trying to jinx myself by saying this, but i still believe to a bigger degree that if i were a betting man id put my chips in seeing january not play out as we want. No knock on the mets/posters here whatsoever, all are very brilliant, it’s just some of our faiths have been struggling to embrace optimism based on history and recent modeling is doing just that. Kinda like ncsu athletics if u will...
 
Everyone take a breath. Enjoy the holidays, have a merry Christmas, and then see what January has in store for us. It's not that serious. After all, it's just snow.
 
KyloG said:
We've seen that before and we know it takes time to get out that pattern. Maybe others are right and models "flip flop" but...

If I was kicking the can it would be until atleast mid-January. Once mid-January comes and we are still looking at a sucktastic pattern I might start reaching for the towel and queuing up the below gif.


View attachment 28563
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If the IOD has the convection in the indian ocean and phases 2 and 3 support colder weather starting in January, wouldn't that be good or not? At least that's what the mjo charts indicate i think.
 
Mr. Golf said:
If the IOD has the convection in the indian ocean and phases 2 and 3 support colder weather starting in January, wouldn't that be good or not? At least that's what the mjo charts indicate i think.
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I don't see it going into 2 or 3 in Jan, right now it wants to die in the circle.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Y'all are funny. Just this week Webber was talking about how good things look going into January, and others were talking about it looking more positive for winter storms than negative. And then today everyone is all doom and gloom, even a couple of the same folks that were "all in" for January. You should realize how the long range flips and flops all the time, and that things can go from ugly to a big winter storm in a week's time here. Just chill. Maybe take a Xanax.
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This is the whamby thread, you don't want to read negative comments,show yourself out.... quit coming in here and trying to nice things up.

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Even the great mets have weenie tendencies and love cold and snow. So they look at this crap being advertised and look for a way out. You can always find a way for the pattern to turn favorable. But I have to wonder if they actually believe it or are they just wishcasting in a sense? 9 our of 10 times those ways out fail to materialize. This constant barrage of horrible patterns in winter is a repeating cycle that not a single person can explain. Regardless of ENSO, QBO, SST's, low solar doesnt matter. We still end up with the same result (AN temps and below average snow most years) every year.
 
Mr. Golf said:
If the IOD has the convection in the indian ocean and phases 2 and 3 support colder weather starting in January, wouldn't that be good or not? At least that's what the mjo charts indicate i think.
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GEFS clearly has that ph6 look...we went want 7-8-1. IO has subsided. Hopefully we just need a little patience.

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Brick Tamland said:
Y'all are funny. Just this week Webber was talking about how good things look going into January, and others were talking about it looking more positive for winter storms than negative. And then today everyone is all doom and gloom, even a couple of the same folks that were "all in" for January. You should realize how the long range flips and flops all the time, and that things can go from ugly to a big winter storm in a week's time here. Just chill. Maybe take a Xanax.
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Because the modeled pattern is crap. We know it's not snowing in the next two weeks. And if we turn the calendar to Jan with even close to that horrible pattern being modeled you can punt two or three weeks of that month as well. You can't go from that look on day 15 to cold and snow on day 16. That basically leaves you Feb which has been less that stellar lately and that trend will probably continue.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Everyone take a breath. Enjoy the holidays, have a merry Christmas, and then see what January has in store for us. It's not that serious. After all, it's just snow.
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We all follow a weather board like it’s facebook..it’s definitely that serious
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’ll be on my phone looking at weather models and my fiancé will say “what are you doing on your phone so much?” And I say “Watching porn.” Because it leaves me with a lot less explaining to do
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Wow. You got a really really nice fianće, because if i told her that she would make it quite difficult on me, but too each is own.
 
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
 
Mr. Golf said:
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
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After the bust I had last season I have no expectations for this season...
 
Mr. Golf said:
In all seriousness, if by mid January things are still not looking good then i am throwing in the towel myself. Not exactly sure why the mjo can't get past the COD. To me it would eventually go back toward phase 2 or 3, because that's where the convection is located.
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A few days ago the E had it going 6,7 and looking like we might get it to 8 and 1. Now its stalling in 6 or in the circle. getting it to 2 and 3 from this point would take all winter and be pointless in the end. We need it to go towards 7 or stay around COD. My opinion.
 
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