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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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I'm running with this map all the way to hell and back. Good ole reliable CFS. Oh well, it's bound to broken clock once in a while: 1575943198419.png
 
BHS1975 said:
Seems like after 2015 it went way downhill.


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I think it's perception. I would say 2012 sucked horribly and seemed like winter died. When 2014 came around winter seemed to return until of course last year. If it snows once and doesn't bake all the entire time, then it's winter in the south. It's just our climate.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think it's perception. I would say 2012 sucked horribly and seemed like winter died. When 2014 came around winter seemed to return until of course last year. If it snows once and doesn't bake all the entire time, then it's winter in the south. It's just our climate.
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I’m sure warming up the climate isn’t helping either.


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Sleet City USA said:
Anybody got that one crazy euro run from last Dec?
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Do you mean this one?
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First the analfrontal snow is drying up, now we’re losing the Thursday tree crusher!
The NAM is going to become a hero or a zero, I’m thinking zero
 
Tarheel1 said:
First the analfrontal snow is drying up, now we’re losing the Thursday tree crusher!
The NAM is going to become a hero or a zero, I’m thinking zero
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En Vogue singing about our snow chances: No you're never gonna get it... never gonna get it....
 
Ollie Williams said:
People are breaking up into 2 storm threads like they do Scooby Doo, both get exited and scared, only to end up with a load of crap at the end (No Snow) In the Scooby Doo case, an old fart trying to scare people.
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and the gfs is saying, "and I would have gotten away with it (snow deep into Alabama and Ga) if it weren't for those meddling kids'...
 
We saw white gold at Newfound Gap Thursday..enough still on the ground to build this little three balled goober. idgaf if it snows at all this winter. I hope it rains and rains and rains some more. Crappie should be on the bed by mid February ☀️ ? 59C23A49-3F8E-476D-BAE0-CE945247CBF5.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We saw white gold at Newfound Gap Thursday..enough still on the ground to build this little three balled goober. idgaf if it snows at all this winter. I hope it rains and rains and rains some more. Crappie should be on the bed by mid February ☀️ ? View attachment 27661
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don't take this the wrong way, but that's the ugliest snow man I've ever seen.. :)
 
WxWatch said:
Looking back at my prediction/model map that I posted last Thursday, December 5th. Some criticized it (lol) while a lot of members liked my predictions. I knew there was going to be snow and ice. I wasn't sure if it was going to occur with one or two different systems and the timing. It turns out that the snow is going to occur with one system, and ice with a different system. I was off with the snow; I thought it was going to be colder and that overrunning was going to be all snow, and that's why I put the snow sector further south on my prediction map/model. Yes, I know my predictions weren't exact, but I say it was fairly good in advance.

Looking at the GFS snowfall output placement (for the overrunning) and the 12km NAM predicted freezing rain area's for the 2nd system, it is remarkable that my prediction held true in a way. Again, my prediction technique has an average of 60% - 80% accuracy rating. I'm still thinking of ways to improve my model, (yes I'm considering it a model) and if you have any thoughts of what I can add to my model, it would be much appreciated. Maybe next time, I won't have criticism lol.View attachment 27650

View attachment 27651

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You're always going to have criticism my guy
 
Quick update concerning snow potential through the next few hours.
The 12Z FWD sounding sampled +5.8C at 900 mb which is considerably
warmer than previous runs of the HRRR/RAP guidance for this time.

Smh I swear its never snowing here again
 
I believe if we move the red shaded area up to where the orange dotted line is now....that should be the true picture of where the Tropics are now LOL!

1575989067274.png
 
Lol. Finally get a true Miller A (in a B pattern too) in a winter month, with a 1040+ high in the NE....and the piedmont has a cold, cold rain. SE winters are cruel. lol. Though, perhaps with the active STJ/split flow this year we can get another one in January with a bit of blocking.

GSP Disco:

As of 300 am Tuesday: A dampening short wave trough will eject from
the southern Great Plains late Thursday, with additional bouts of
height falls expected to follow throughout the weekend. This first
wave is expected to be responsible for Gulf Coast cyclogenesis Thu
night and Friday. Although timing differences remain among global
model guidance, they are converging toward a consensus in developing
a classic Miller A cyclone across the Southeast coastal states early
in the period, and this is expected to bring the next round of
precipitation to our forecast area.
 
Thinking about selling my weatherflow station. It's a great station but doesn't give me what I'm looking for as far as data saving and compilation

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I believe another old saying applies well to several on this board. My Grandfather used to so say " Ole ________ don't say much, but when he does, he don't say much". You can substitute the blanks with any name you wish.
 
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