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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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J.C. said:
To me he mentions two things that continue to throw normals out the window, continued very low arctic ice and very warm oceans. Unless either of those two things change drastically, we are where we are.

I also keep seeing people mention: "winter doesn't start until the 21st." That date is really meaningless when it comes to winter storms or colder temperature averages. Our coolest months are December and January. The last day of "winter" in this area has an average high of 66F, March 21st, whereas the average high on December 1st if 59F. One could only logically deduce that you have a greater chance of anything frozen in early to middle December over middle March. Perhaps I'm wrong on that, but numbers don't lie.
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Met winter is Dec 1st to Feb 29th. March starts met spring temp wise. Snow averages in March are right around December snow averages though.
 
NoSnowATL said:
He seems like a smart guy but he theory just doesn’t work and it hasn’t worked. Seems like a waste of talent to me. Just my opinion.


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I agree. Him, JB and several others have forgotten more than I'll ever know. But it still doesn't mean hobbyists like me can't criticize them when they fail over and over and let their bias get in the way. I think it's time for Cohen to find another theory. It's been what 10 years now and its failed more often than not?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
I agree. Him, JB and several others have forgotten more than I'll ever know. But it still doesn't mean hobbyists like me can't criticize them when they fail over and over and let their bias get in the way. I think it's time for Cohen to find another theory. It's been what 10 years now and its failed more often than not?
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I don’t remember it ever working to be honest. I don’t see the doom and gloom from the models like we saw last year around this time. We may not get 14 snow storm and 12 ice storms but someone in the SE will get a storm and we might all see snow. It’s way too early to punt. I’ll save my leg for mid February. That give me time to stretch and warm up.


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NoSnowATL said:
I don’t remember it ever working to be honest. I don’t see the doom and gloom from the models like we saw last year around this time. We my not get 14 snow storm and 12 ice storms but someone in the SE will get a storm and we might all see snow. It’s way too early to punt. I’ll save my leg for mid February. That give me time to stretch and warm up.


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You may not have to wait for the 4th quarter ...
 
NoSnowATL said:
I don’t remember it ever working to be honest. I don’t see the doom and gloom from the models like we saw last year around this time. We may not get 14 snow storm and 12 ice storms but someone in the SE will get a storm and we might all see snow. It’s way too early to punt. I’ll save my leg for mid February. That give me time to stretch and warm up.


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Agreed. No snow in December is like failing to convert on first down. There are still three more chances...January, February and March.
 
Not sure which is worse...slightly AN (USA) and no chance of snow or well AN (Europe) and no chance of snow.

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KyloG said:
Good news is drought is taking a beating. Even Cali.


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This is what we want to see for the entire winter. It would be one less headache, now we just need the cold. It’s all about timing.



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The winter cancellation going on today is awesome! But , but , but the torch or above normals showing up in the long range are muted or don’t occur!! Well guess what, neither is the long range blocking being modeled, the MJO is staying in suckfest numbers like 3456, I’m all in too ! Winters over, 3 sucktastic in a row, just without the December snow!???
 
Tarheel1 said:
The winter cancellation going on today is awesome! But , but , but the torch or above normals showing up in the long range are muted or don’t occur!! Well guess what, neither is the long range blocking being modeled, the MJO is staying in suckfest numbers like 3456, I’m all in too ! Winters over, 3 sucktastic in a row, just without the December snow!
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MJO is what concerns me. Some don’t weight it as heavy but it’s important. One bright side I saw was it’s heading in the right direction, only problem is how long will it take? 30 days?60? April 1st? And will I’d stay the course or get sucked back to sucktown


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Tarheel1 said:
The winter cancellation going on today is awesome! But , but , but the torch or above normals showing up in the long range are muted or don’t occur!! Well guess what, neither is the long range blocking being modeled, the MJO is staying in suckfest numbers like 3456, I’m all in too ! Winters over, 3 sucktastic in a row, just without the December snow!???
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3? Don't you mean more like 10 in a row?
 
Lets bake this winter. Records have been shattered recently, lets shatter them even further than they have been!
 
Me and my daughter will be in Winston-Salem on Saturday at Groves Stadium for her high schools 2A State Championship. We’re playing Reidsville for the state championship for the second year in a row. We lost to them 31-28 last year. Hoping for good weather.
 
Going down memory lane of old storms lol, last year's December storm I didn't fully appreciate how badly I got shafted. Inman reported 11.9 inches and i got 2.3 of mainly sleet. Inman is about 15 miles away.
 
Brent said:
HRRR doesn't look too bad back east but there's still time for that to go to crap

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From what I can tell so far, is that a lot of that is rate driven on the back end of the moisture. I've seen something happen similar to that before but I don't see it going much further than the AL GA line.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Yea mid to low 60s. At least the kids will be able to ride the new bikes from Santa.


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Jan 88! Christmas was wet and torchy! Hmmmm
 
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