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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
How many days has it been since I have seen more the a T of snow??
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Sad


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Same...
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s ALL county, I’m building a house on the north end of Jefferson. Beautiful place in the middle of nowhere. Only downside is the drive to work, I work dead center of Atlanta and the 1.5-2hr drive is going to stink but well worth the peace.


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That’s awesome! I lived in metro Atlanta March 13th 1993-05. Had a home built in 97 in Cherokee county (Acworth/Woodstock). Moved to Winston-Salem 2005 on work transfer. Do NOT miss the 1-2 hour commute !!! Living in the county gives me the luxury of freedom to target practice, burn yard debris etc. Good Luck!
 
NoSnowATL said:
It’s ALL county, I’m building a house on the north end of Jefferson. Beautiful place in the middle of nowhere. Only downside is the drive to work, I work dead center of Atlanta and the 1.5-2hr drive is going to stink but well worth the peace.


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At least you have the toll lanes out to exit 120 and will have three lanes to the Jefferson exit when they finish it.
 
Dayum Wisconsin
 
Brent said:
I'm so glad I've moved on from expecting snow in the winter :p
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I’ve almost gotten to the point where I don’t expect freezing temperatures in December, especially down at the airport.
 
metwannabe said:
Gets more and more difficult every year to "trust" models beyond 72 hrs. Maybe the Jan 30th system has legs

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Winter weather is like watching UGA from a distance. It looks good from a long distance but as you get closer and closer it’s looks ugly as hell.


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metwannabe said:
Gets more and more difficult every year to "trust" models beyond 72 hrs. Maybe the Jan 30th system has legs

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And this is why you don't hype up for bananafrontal or light at the end of the tunnel but it's a train that's about to overrun you events or even the Gulf low chance of happening the way you want it to. I never really closely followed this because I knew it was going to be rain and at best a light ZR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
And this is why you don't hype up for bananafrontal or light at the end of the tunnel but it's a train that's about to overrun you events or even the Gulf low chance of happening the way you want it to. I never really closely followed this because I knew it was going to be rain and at best a light ZR.
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I'm gonna stir the pot and walk away. I understand the don't over hype, especially putting out false information publicly or on social and misleading people. That's foolish. But if an individual wants to get excited, "believe" it could happen, follow it, discuss, have fun with it, ride the ups and downs, who cares and what's the harm? I see so many comments telling people how to react and to not buy it, don't get worked up, don't get excited like it's their busy to tell others how to react to the model runs. Again as long as their not putting stuff out there that effects people's lives, I say let'em enjoy the ride. Not necessarily directed at you FS

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Storm5 said:
BAMWX one day it’s gonna get cold , 24 hours later there is a problem , back to cold . Is BAMWX really Judah ???? Asking for a friend
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Keep in mind that BAMWX has both energy as well as weenie clients just as JB does. Whether or not that biases them toward or gets them more excited about predicting cold more often than they should can’t be proven, but is something I’m wary about at this time of year. I’ve seen some of Michael Clark’s videos/posts and he clearly gets more excited about predicting cold than predicting mild. Same with JB and Judah as well as Cosgrove. And that goes for most of the active posters here including myself. They all are affected by the same bug of getting more excited about cold potential. The key however toward maintaining forecasting credibility is not letting this excitement actually bias one toward too cold forecasts. Maxar is an example of a company with zero bias toward forecasting cold (or mild for that matter). If you read Maxar and then read JB/Judah/BAMWX/Cosgrove side by side, you’d see the stark differences. That’s why I post Maxar thoughts from time to time. I have a lot of respect for their objectivity. If they or some other objective company/person predicts cold, then you can feel confident it really is coming. I think a lot of NWS mets can also be included in the objectivity bucket.

*Edit: A great clue as to whether or not a company is objective is whether or not the cold bias of cold biased models is mentioned. When was the last time that JB mentioned cold bias of anything? It is rare. In contrast, Maxar does it frequently.

Maxar has consistently been warning about another winter kept from being cold in the SE US by the SER based on the -GLAAM/SER correlation. I have no choice but to consider this as a very realistic possibility. Without them, I’d know nothing about this.
 
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Does this forum have a app I can download instead of going to Google?
 
GaWx said:
That’s what @pcbjr has been repeatedly telling us. He’s setting up himself for major kudos should we get this kind of January. Should this happen, we may need to take his seasonal predictions more seriously.
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January sounds good to me. Couple weeks away
 
now.. we just need to wish the reliable models to negative tilt. then it will ice up the southeast. bad weather model runs will force mother nature!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
To me since 2014 the SER has be main feature with our weather from Oct-March. This is becoming more and more concerning to me, I am writing research on this.
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the SER can actually help get wintry weather. it's just a fine line. down where we are, it usually ends up in sleet/ice though.

higher heights in the se aren't always bad. it's just where they are.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
To me since 2014 the SER has be main feature with our weather from Oct-March. This is becoming more and more concerning to me, I am writing research on this.
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2015 was solid pattern and then 2016 we had canonical super nino pattern. But 2017-2019 was ugly with a capital U. The Aleutian ridge is just a killer and if we get that again in Jan/Feb this winter that would be really disappointing.

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