• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

Status
Not open for further replies.
WxWatch said:
How I come up with my predictions and some thoughts

First off, I want to say that I know that some will think my predictions are foolish and injudicious. It's okay that I get criticized from my predictions. I use a technique that I have discovered over the years by observing these models. I use a blend of models from past data and the latest. My technique can become very complex depending on how many number of models I use with my blending technique. I do not use the same blending technique as the National Weather Service, which that is one of the reason's why I get criticized. I have my own way undertaking what is shown on these models. I try to keep it simple and get a good understanding of what is happening at a comprehensible level of my ability. I have discovered that my technique has a 60% - 80% average accuracy rating. I also use old school techniques to create my predictions as well, but I don't want to tell everything about how I come up with my predictions. My friendly advice is, you can also find a technique/way to achieve your creation of your own predictions.

About my model:

My model is something new that I have this winter season. So, it's in the experimental stage. My model is specifically designed for winter weather. It is not created by algorithms or by a supercomputer. Yes, I have to create my model by hand using paint programs,
that's the only way to produce my model. Even though, the model isn't generated by a supercomputer, it is still considered a model. My model is created by a blend of previous/latest model data, calculations of mean numbers, analysis and microclimates. Also, the data can vary depending on the blend of models used and what data is given based upon the blend of models. Basically, my model is a human inputted model, I do not look at one model and call it a forecast. These models need human input, it's simple as that.

A thought

I think it would be a good idea to have our own SouthernWx storm prediction thread. Perhaps one for winter storms for the fall/winter and another one during the spring/summer for hurricanes, tornadoes/significant severe wx outbreaks etc. A thread were we can post our predictions, thoughts, videos, instead of cluttering up a pattern thread of the month. If a storm system has the chance at verifying, then yeah an actual active storm mode thread can be created for that storm.

I'm down to create maps for us that will be available exclusively for us here at SouthernWx. If an admin is okay with that, just email/PM me the SouthernWX logo .png format that has a transparent background.


Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
You might be on to something with the thread idea. Lemme work on something

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Mostly same reasons the CPC is going with. Overall warmer and I believe the big rains in December will not continue all winter. I believe it’s gonna get dry around the Gulf of Mexico too.
Click to expand...
No torch next month. Sorry ain't happening this go around. Infact, I predict a snownado at some point!tornado1.gif

Snownado.jpg
Snow owl.gif
 
I'm done with winter. I'm rooting for much above average. I'd like 70's for highs and 50's for lows. Propane is too expensive to waste on slightly below normal temps and no snow chances.

Now looking at the modeling for the next week...I win!!! 3 out of 7 days anyway. I bet it'll be 5 out of 7 before all is said and done! Times are good for me now.
 
weatherfide said:
I'm done with winter. I'm rooting for much above average. I'd like 70's for highs and 50's for lows. Propane is too expensive to waste on slightly below normal temps and no snow chances.

Now looking at the modeling for the next week...I win!!! 3 out of 7 days anyway. I bet it'll be 5 out of 7 before all is said and done! Times are good for me now.
Click to expand...

Winter hasn’t even started yet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Local NWS meh

While a cold rain remains the most
likely precipitation type through Tuesday morning, there is at
least a low potential for some snow or sleet pellets to mix with
rain during this time period. Unfortunately, model spreads of low-
level temperature fields deviate highly on Tuesday morning, with
GEFS surface temperature differences of as much as 10-15F. The
low-level thermal profiles will be crucial for this forecast, but
there is much uncertainty still at this time. It`s worth noting
that only about ~20% of GEFS members suggest a potential for a
wintry mix, with the others either remaining too warm or too dry
through the low levels. The good news (barring any drastic
changes) is that surface temperatures are expected to be in the
mid or upper 30s, so even if a changeover to wintry precip could
occur, any accumulation or impacts would be unlikely.
 
Brent said:
Local NWS meh

While a cold rain remains the most
likely precipitation type through Tuesday morning, there is at
least a low potential for some snow or sleet pellets to mix with
rain during this time period. Unfortunately, model spreads of low-
level temperature fields deviate highly on Tuesday morning, with
GEFS surface temperature differences of as much as 10-15F. The
low-level thermal profiles will be crucial for this forecast, but
there is much uncertainty still at this time. It`s worth noting
that only about ~20% of GEFS members suggest a potential for a
wintry mix, with the others either remaining too warm or too dry
through the low levels. The good news (barring any drastic
changes) is that surface temperatures are expected to be in the
mid or upper 30s, so even if a changeover to wintry precip could
occur, any accumulation or impacts would be unlikely.
Click to expand...

You Texans are looking good right now, every system we are looking at goes through you so help us out. Thanks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
accu35 said:
There still plenty time for this to either get worse or better. If we were little colder, oh man this would be gold. I'm very interested with this one.
gfs_asnow_seus_31.png
Click to expand...
I almost try never look too much into snow maps due to models often under estimate the CAD wedge especially in these types of situations but I do like the way the GFS looked this run I think it look much better than previous runs. I agree this also very much has my attention.
 
It looks rather mild for the next several days with lows way above average.
 
WxWatch said:
Thanks! That idea just came to me randomly while I was typing that out. I'll keep my predictions/my winter storm model posting at a minimum in the December thread until a winter storm prediction thread is made. Hopefully one will be created sometime this weekend. I know that you and or the other admins may need some time figuring out on how the storm prediction threads will be created.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Just to go ahead and get this out there what im thinking is a group think thread. Anyone that wants to post their thoughts/ forecast/ maps, we then take the ideas like an ensemble mean and publish our averaged thoughts on the southernwx social media. For example we could have pushed out a map this week that outlined where the models were sporadically showing a storm and said something to the effect of low end chance in these regions. I'm not sure how it would work out and egos would have to be checked at the door. It would be interesting to see how we as a group would verify against reality. If you think about it the possibilities could be from showing the next 3-5 day temps, monthly forecasts, seasonal, storms. I'm open to ideas from everyone

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Mike Griffith had a pretty good take that stands out...honestly can't disagree with it. Georgia might have a shot tomorrow if things break right, but there's serious questions about just how much they're going to have left after it because of several issues (some self inflicted, and some being injury).
 
Well I just checked TT and I have to say it’s not good. I do like the cold air building to the north. We still have some ways to go.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
Well I just checked TT and I have to say it’s not good. I do like the cold air building to the north. We still have some ways to go.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It could be worse. The SER is playing chicken this year for some reason. It stares us down and tells us we are going to bake and torch and when we get close enough to swing it disappears and reappears 200 feet away.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top