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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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I still think things look good to see some snow in my neck of the woods this month. Maybe next week won't work out, but the pattern looks great for potential, and that's all you can ask for. I think at least one of those potential storms that show up on the models is going to become reality before the month is over.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Deer hunting? or Bird hunting? Good luck what ever you're hunting!!!
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Pheasant and Deer . A buddy at our corporate office in Des Moines is obsessed with pheasant hunting . The thought of walking through fields in the middle of winter in Iowa is less than exciting . But , he has heated deer stands !!!


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If any storm happens it will be late December,the next few are close but the pattern isn’t there yet. January is coming.


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Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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How is this novel not banter? So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
 
I think some folks just like to troll and be Debbie Downer all the time for some reason.
 
Claycochaser said:
I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
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So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
 
JMB said:
So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
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So you report claycochaser for a banter post and then you make a banter post yourself. Hmmmm???

The member was stating his opinion on the post which should have been copied and put in the whamby thread. People is open to opinion on this thread as long as they are not making threats to the other posters.
 
Honestly, I still think that a light event with Tuesday/Wednesday system is still a go. Kinda like last month with some back side turn over to light snow.
 
Folks let’s keep profile reporting confidential member have right to be discrete
 
TBH while I think the chances of it happening is very low, Ive been here long enough to see this happen, and it come back, it was bad 0z runs, and sloppy 06z runs, but if the 12z gets worse, than I think it’s safe to say it’s going away, if it shows good stuff again, watch everybody flip out again, it’s nothing new and the past 2 winter I’ve been looking at this place, it happens all the time, living or dying based off the models, lol
 
He opinion she opinion I got opinion but who beCause mod said opinion
 
I'm still fairly new here and am more of a lurker than a poster, but I wanted to thank everyone who posts models, analogs, and provides their take on the pattern at hand. This board feels like a tight knit community and I'm glad to be a part of it, despite my limited knowledge of various parts of the weather (only got through 2 years of a college meteorology program). I especially appreciate those who take the time to formulate their own predictions based on the data at hand. Bashing them seems counterproductive.

That being said.....I want some damn snow. I don't miss 2'+ storms and 100"+ winters in New England, but is it asking too much for a couple inches here and there? (I know the answer to this is yes, I am asking too much)
 
CamWX said:
I'm still fairly new here and am more of a lurker than a poster, but I wanted to thank everyone who posts models, analogs, and provides their take on the pattern at hand. This board feels like a tight knit community and I'm glad to be a part of it, despite my limited knowledge of various parts of the weather (only got through 2 years of a college meteorology program). I especially appreciate those who take the time to formulate their own predictions based on the data at hand. Bashing them seems counterproductive.

That being said.....I want some damn snow. I don't miss 2'+ storms and 100"+ winters in New England, but is it asking too much for a couple inches here and there (I know the answer to this is yes, I am asking too much)?
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More Georgia folks! Welcome and don’t be shy, as you can tell most on here are not.


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NoSnowATL said:
More Georgia folks! Welcome and don’t be shy, as you can tell most on here are not.
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No doubt. I just let me more knowledgeable people speak up, especially the ones who have lived down here all their lives and know the patterns inside and out. Now I'm more than happy to talk about nor'easters and Alberta clippers, have plenty experience with those. My last winter in the northeast (2010-2011) was a nightmare, especially January (snowiest month in history in CT, 54 inches!). It definitely played a part in me moving down here.
 
What is being wish cast in the December thread?

It's rain ...

As we get closer, the models back off such cold air. The GFS (FV3) was known to have a problem overdoing CAD from last year.
 
accu35 said:
Why do you make sense some times and other times your off in the deep end, lol.
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And, also, I want to know how much time and effort goes into creating a weather model of your own that can open Photoshop and draw lines all over the place.

I think an in-house WRF with tweaked parameters would have saved a lot of time and effort... seriously. You can install it here: https://github.com/wrf-model/WRF

Just tweak it up with your own parameters and produce some great localized forecasts for your back yard. Personally my version has the snow to rain cutoff at 84F. You guys should see how much model snow I get, even in the Summer!
 
JMB said:
So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that
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JMB said:
So because you and others disagree with what his opinion is on a system he should change his tone?? Haha..Do his opinions really effect you that much?
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The answer to the first question is no. That wasnt what was stated in the post. The answer to the second question is yes. In the context of this weather forum, yes it does effect me. It effected me enough to make a post about it. Just as my comment affected you enough to respond. Now in the broader context of life in general, no. It doesn't effect me at all. But this isn't a "Life in General" forum. And if you truly like this forum and want it to continue to prosper then you should be well aware of the effects of allowing persistent hyperbolic posts such as his to continue to go on unchecked. Checks and balances. Give and take. Opinion vs opinion. Facts vs facts. That makes for proper argument and a good discussion. I'm merely playing my half of the role.
 
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