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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Brent said:
Meanwhile headed for a low around 10 here after a balmy high of 25(warmer than yesterday...). Secondary roads still covered in ice and sleet
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Congrats! What a winter you've had again! How much sleet accumulated? How much ice on the trees? Was there enough for many outages?
 
GaWx said:
Well, they were cold in much of NC and TN today!

Today's high at KSAV was 85, which means that they have had 85+ in Feb for 5 years in a row and 84+ for 7 years in a row! Prior to this, the longest streak of Febs with 84+ was only two, 1996-7!
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The amount of variation in the south has been amazing. Probably one of the warmest winters in NGA while NC was rather cold and snowy.

I’d venture to say by the 2030’s those colder and snowier parts of NC and TN will have winters more like us and we’ll have winters more like [mention]pcbjr [/mention] !


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
Congrats! What a winter you've had again! How much sleet accumulated? How much ice on the trees? Was there enough for many outages?
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1.2 inches officially here. Never heard of any big outages and I think it's probably because most of the precip was sleet vs freezing rain even down south of here where they were more concerned
 
J.C. said:
I call -------- on that reading, this puts into question their entire composition of new averages. Just like KATL, they have deviated so far higher from the other local reporting stations, it’s not believable at this point. KPDK is arguably in a more urban environment inside of 285 in Chamblee, a mere 10 miles north, and their January average high is 51.7F, KATLs is 54F.
I don’t buy it.
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KATL and KAGS are much different situations. KATL has (as you must know) for decades averaged much warmer for lows vs other ATL area stations on mainly good radiational cooling nights though it may be getting even worse. OTOH, KAGS has been averaging the opposite, much colder than nearby areas on the same radiational nights. But their highs have been averaging 1-2 F warmer with as much as 3-4 warmer on occasion vs Augusta's Daniel Field. Today's 88 is being called into question but it was 3 warmer than another main Augusta station, Daniel Field, nothing unusual.

I went further back in history for AGS (Bush) vs Daniel (back to 1997) and found something interesting about mean highs:

1997-2013: Bush was always anywhere from 0.9 to 2.5 F warmer than Daniel

2014-2016: Bush was only 0.1 warmer in 2014, the same as Daniel in 2015, and only 0.2 warmer in 2016.

2017-2021: Bush was back to being 1.2 to 1.8 warmer than Daniel!

So for mean highs, why the heck were Bush and Daniel about the same in 2014-2016 but Bush was 1-2 F warmer both before and after those three years? That looks fishy.

Then I checked mean lows to see if the comparison between 2014-6 and other years was comparable to how the highs were. It turned out they were. For 2014-16, lows averaged 5.5 F colder at Bush vs Daniel. But for the other years, Bush lows averaged only 4.6 F colder. So, for whatever reason in relation to Daniel for both highs and lows, Bush was colder during 2014-2016 vs both earlier and later years.

Copying @GeorgiaGirl in case she has some insight into this
 
GaWx said:
KATL and KAGS are much different situations. KATL has (as you must know) for decades averaged much warmer for lows vs other ATL area stations on mainly good radiational cooling nights though it may be getting even worse. OTOH, KAGS has been averaging the opposite, much colder than nearby areas on the same radiational nights. But their highs have been averaging 1-2 F warmer with as much as 3-4 warmer on occasion vs Augusta's Daniel Field. Today's 88 is being called into question but it was 3 warmer than another main Augusta station, Daniel Field, nothing unusual.

I went further back in history for AGS (Bush) vs Daniel (back to 1997) and found something interesting about mean highs:

1997-2013: Bush was always anywhere from 0.9 to 2.5 F warmer than Daniel

2014-2016: Bush was only 0.1 warmer in 2014, the same as Daniel in 2015, and only 0.2 warmer in 2016.

2017-2021: Bush was back to being 1.2 to 1.8 warmer than Daniel!

So for mean highs, why the heck were Bush and Daniel about the same in 2014-2016 but Bush was 1-2 F warmer both before and after those three years? That looks fishy.

Then I checked mean lows to see if the comparison between 2014-6 and other years was comparable to how the highs were. It turned out they were. For 2014-16, lows averaged 5.5 F colder at Bush vs Daniel. But for the other years, Bush lows averaged only 4.6 F colder. So, for whatever reason in relation to Daniel for both highs and lows, Bush was colder during 2014-2016 vs both earlier and later years.

Copying @GeorgiaGirl in case she has some insight into this
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KAGS isn't in an urban area. It's right next door to this (which I've been to many times btw):

Phinizy Center for Water Sciences, Phinizy Swamp Nature Park

Phinizy Center for Water Sciences & Phinizy Swamp Nature Park. Water Research, Environmental Education, Connection with Nature.
phinizycenter.org phinizycenter.org

Which may provide an explanation for low temps being colder at times (it's in a low-lying area), but I don't know about the highs.

85 seems right to me. I have 83 for today (honestly it may have been 85 as I'm not the person that reads the thermometer) and usually run a touch cooler.
 
J.C. said:
I call -------- on that reading, this puts into question their entire composition of new averages. Just like KATL, they have deviated so far higher from the other local reporting stations, it’s not believable at this point. KPDK is arguably in a more urban environment inside of 285 in Chamblee, a mere 10 miles north, and their January average high is 51.7F, KATLs is 54F.
I don’t buy it.
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It also matters where the sensor is located on airport grounds. Is it located near the tarmac, runways or buildings? Glad they are looking at the sensor and not just accepting it without question.
 
GaWx said:
KATL and KAGS are much different situations. KATL has (as you must know) for decades averaged much warmer for lows vs other ATL area stations on mainly good radiational cooling nights though it may be getting even worse. OTOH, KAGS has been averaging the opposite, much colder than nearby areas on the same radiational nights. But their highs have been averaging 1-2 F warmer with as much as 3-4 warmer on occasion vs Augusta's Daniel Field. Today's 88 is being called into question but it was 3 warmer than another main Augusta station, Daniel Field, nothing unusual.

I went further back in history for AGS (Bush) vs Daniel (back to 1997) and found something interesting about mean highs:

1997-2013: Bush was always anywhere from 0.9 to 2.5 F warmer than Daniel

2014-2016: Bush was only 0.1 warmer in 2014, the same as Daniel in 2015, and only 0.2 warmer in 2016.

2017-2021: Bush was back to being 1.2 to 1.8 warmer than Daniel!

So for mean highs, why the heck were Bush and Daniel about the same in 2014-2016 but Bush was 1-2 F warmer both before and after those three years? That looks fishy.

Then I checked mean lows to see if the comparison between 2014-6 and other years was comparable to how the highs were. It turned out they were. For 2014-16, lows averaged 5.5 F colder at Bush vs Daniel. But for the other years, Bush lows averaged only 4.6 F colder. So, for whatever reason in relation to Daniel for both highs and lows, Bush was colder during 2014-2016 vs both earlier and later years.

Copying @GeorgiaGirl in case she has some insight into this
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This is why I usually only look at high temperatures, there are just to many factors affecting lows. I just don't buy that KATL is 2 degrees warmer on average (January) then a location literally ten miles north on a 30 year average now. There again, I'm 15 miles north of KPDK and can be 4 degrees cooler then KATL, but I'm also higher.
 
The wedge rolling in yesterday was really impressive. Temps fell all day in spite of the higher sun angle. It was supposed to warm over night but fog has locked us in at near freezing.
 
SD said:
Going to be interesting to see how far NW the 70s get today looks like the very far southern edge is starting to erode this morning
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Never underestimate how long it takes for a strong wedge to erode. I would like, as much as anyone, for the sun/warmer temps to reach my area today, but I have my doubts.
 
WxGSO said:
Never underestimate how long it takes for a strong wedge to erode. I would like, as much as anyone, for the sun/warmer temps to reach my area today, but I have my doubts.
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It almost looks like areas to my west possibly near you or to your west might really shoot up this afternoon as the front passes and winds go west.
 
WxGSO said:
Never underestimate how long it takes for a strong wedge to erode. I would like, as much as anyone, for the sun/warmer temps to reach my area today, but I have my doubts.
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It's a legit reality in our parts. We've seen it a 100 times before. Here's to hoping its right and we can warm up for a few hours.
 
smast16 said:
It's a legit reality in our parts. We've seen it a 100 times before. Here's to hoping its right and we can warm up for a few hours.
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This is precisely why we need to get rid of the northeast . When has good weather ever came from the northeast ? Anything from the northeast kills good weather ( storms , warmth ).
 
Wedge is eroding away now it seems , temps jumped into the 50s . Won’t be long till it breaks up a bit . Probably by noon, it’s always cool to see . Once the breaking begins it all happens pretty fast . Yuck though. Terrible weather
 
Lickwx said:
This is precisely why we need to get rid of the northeast . When has good weather ever came from the northeast ? Anything from the northeast kills good weather ( storms , warmth )
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When has anything good come from the NE? Lol!

I joke.

Kind of.
 
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